With the kickoff of the 2023 NFL season just a month away, now is a perfect time to revisit a key rule change for the upcoming season.  During the offseason, the NFL implemented a new kickoff rule on a one-year trial basis.  Under the new regulations, any kickoff that is fair caught inside of the 25 yard line, will be treated as if it’s a touchback with the offense beginning their possession from the 25 yard line.  According to the league, the goal is to reduce concussions by reducing the kickoff return rate from 38% in 2022 to a projected 31% in 2023. 

Over the years the NFL has rightly taken steps to make an inherently violent game safer however, football will never be considered “safe”.  While great progress has been made in protecting defenseless players, the kickoff has remained a play that the NFL cannot seem to reduce the risk of injury below their desired level.  

Prior to the 2011 season, the NFL moved the kickoff from the 30 yard line to the 35, with the intent of making it easier for the kicking team to send ball into the end zone and produce more touchbacks.  In advance of the 2016 season, as returners continued to take the ball out of the end zone, the NFL moved kickoff touchbacks out from the 20 yard line to the 25. The change was made to further incentivize teams to take a knee when kicks traveled into their end zone. 

The previous rule changes have succeeded in bringing the return rate below 40%; however, some teams still look to leverage the rules in a way to gain a competitive advantage for their defenses.  With kickoffs coming from the 35 instead of the 30, rather than kick the ball into the end zone, a kicker can kick the ball shorter (to the 5-10 yard line) and with more height/hang time.  Doing so gives the coverage unit time to get down field to make a tackle.  Additionally, the change to bring touchbacks out to the 25 yard line instead of the 20, had the unintended consequence of encouraging teams to employee this strategy.  The cost/benefit analysis shifted from whether you believed your team could make a tackle inside the 20 to whether your coverage unit could put an end to a return inside the 25. 

NFL games are won and lost on the slimmest of margins and consistently forcing your opponent to start at their 22 yard line rather than the 25 is not insignificant in the eyes of the game’s best coaches.  More importantly, forcing a team to return a kick also forces them into having to protect the football.  Every kick return is an opportunity for the kicking team to force a turnover that could swing the outcome of a game.  The new rule looks to put an end to that strategy but, will it play out as the NFL believes? 

The biggest issue with the new rule is that it has largely removed the incentive for a kicking team to kick the ball into the end zone.  Under the previous rule, if a team wasn’t confident in their coverage unit, they would kick the ball into the end zone for a touchback.  Now, there is minimal risk for those teams to kick the ball shorter and force their opponent to make a fair catch.  Virtually every ball kicked inside the 10 yard line should be fair caught; attempting a return on those kicks would be overly aggressive under the new rule. 

For the kicking team, the best case scenario is a muff and an opportunity to recover a live ball, while the worst case scenario is likely a touchback.  If it plays out this way, the NFL will not have increased player safety at all. The 21 players not receiving the kick will still have to play the kickoff out as if it will be returned.  Although the most visible, highlight reel, impacts on a kickoff take place between the ball carrier and the tackler, collisions happen all over the field between those pursuing the returner and those blocking. 

Teams that place an extra emphasis on special teams, like the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, may look to implement another strategy to force returns and limit opponent field position; a modified deep squib kick.  The squib kick involves kicking the ball into the ground, causing multiple bounces, before it reaches a kick returner. 

Unlike an onside kick, squib kicks are sent much deeper than 10-15 yards down the field. They are traditionally used in late half/late game situations when a team wants to eliminate the possibility of a big return by forcing someone other than the receiving team’s primary kick returner to field the ball. 

The goal in these situations is not necessarily to pin the opponent deep inside their own 25 yard line; however, there has never been a previous incentive to try to use squib kicks for that purpose.  Historically, if a team was trying to pin their opponent deep, they would do so with a traditional kickoff. The new rule takes that approach off the table due to the treatment of a fair catch. 

A modified squib kick that sends the ball to the opponents 5-10 yard line could wreak havoc!  The fair catch rule would not apply as a ball that has hit the ground after being kicked (i.e. not a drop kick) cannot be fair caught. Also, kickoffs that do not reach the end zone are live balls that can be recovered by either team.  The receiving team would be forced to corral the bouncing ball and return it, creating turnover opportunities for the kicking team. 

The downside of this deep squib kick strategy is the difficulty in controlling where a squib kick ends up.  Kickers would need to achieve a certain level of precision in order to employ this strategy consistently. A squib kick that bounces out of bounds, prior to reaching the goal line, would result in a penalty which would set the opposing offense up at their own 40 yard line.  Despite the risk, keep an eye out for this approach throughout the 2023 NFL season, some teams will surely roll the dice!