The sky is falling in Boston!!!  Or at least, that’s what some people would have you believe…The Boston Bruins went ALL IN on the 2022-2023 season, set NHL records for wins (65) and points (135), but came up short of winning the franchise’s seventh Stanley Cup.  The team leveraged salary cap loop holes such as performance bonuses and long-term injured reserve to constructed one of the most talented rosters the league had seen in the salary cap era.  The organization understandably threw everything they had at one last run with Captain Patrice Bergeron, but going all in the way the Bruins did comes at a cost and now that bill is coming due!

Centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci both announced their retirements this offseason however, they will still show up on the team’s cap sheet for the upcoming season.  The bonus overages from their last contracts, totaling $4.5 million, count against the team’s 2023-2024 salary cap.  Combine that with raises for David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha, Trent Frederic, and Jeremy Swayman and the team was backed into a corner against the “flat cap” of the Covid era. 

As the cap hits stacked up like a losing game of Tetris, the Bruins chose to shed Taylor Hall’s contract, sending the highly skilled forward to Chicago.  They also watched short lived fan favorite Tyler Bertuzzi walk out the door and sign with the rival Toronto Maple Leafs.  In addition to the losses on the wing, the team is without a true number one center and the sentiment amongst much of the fan base is that all is lost, but is it?

The Current Roster

There’s no doubt that the Bruins are heading into a challenging bridge season; however, there is a very real pathway back to Stanley Cup contention.  It starts with the best winger in the game in David Pastrnak, fresh off a 61 goal campaign, and do it all defender, Charlie McAvoy, who continues to expand his offensive game while physically punishing opponents all over the ice!  Pastrnak is 27 and McAvoy is 25, both are signed long term.  Those are two ABSOLUTE cornerstones to build a cup team around! 

Looking ahead to this coming season, the team will rely heavily on some other young players entering their primes. Jake DeBrusk and Pavel Zacha are both 26, while Trent Frederic and newly signed Morgan Geekie are 25 years old.  DeBrusk and Zacha have established themselves as sold top 6 forwards and consistent point producers.  Frederic and Geekie are established third liners with the potential and opportunity to continue to grow their games this season.  At 26 years old, Brando Carlo is a sold stay at home defender and, at 24 years old, Jeremy Swayman is a potential franchise goaltender in the making.   

The roster also features some key veterans led by possible captain, Brad Marchand, and consistent two way center Charlie Coyle.  The backend is bolstered by Norris Trophy voter attention getter, Hampus Lindholm (finished 4th in 2023), and reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Linus Ullmark! 

Filling out the roster around this group is where General Manager Don Sweeney, really got creative.  Upfront, he brought back one of the most popular Bruins of all time in Milan Lucic, and added James van Riemsdyk, Patrick Brown, and Jesper Boqvist.  On the backend, he signed D-Man Kevin Shattenkirk.  What is important about these signings is that they are all around $1m AAV or less.  This means that any of these contracts can be fully buried in the AHL.  By filling out the roster in this way, Sweeney has provided veteran contributors to supplement his team’s core, while allowing opportunity for young players to break into the league, if they prove ready!

Prospects To Watch

Despite the narrative that the Bruins do not have a deep prospect pool, to which there is some truth, they still have some interesting names to watch.  Fabian Lysell is probably the most well known of the group. The highly skilled right winger from Sweden was drafted 21st overall in the 2021 draft.  At just 20 years old, he completed his first AHL season with 14 goals and 23 assists for 37 points in 54 games.  A bit undersized at 5’10” and around 170lbs, Lysell might benefit from another year in the AHL, although his offensive skillset might be too tempting for the Bruins to not at least get a look at him in a Boston uniform. 

Fellow first year Providence Bruin, LW Georgi Merkulov, is an undrafted Russian known for his shot.  At 22 years old, he put together a 24-31-55 AHL campaign over 67 games.  At 5’11” and 180lbs he has the necessary size to compete in the game’s top league so I expect to see Merkulov in Boston at some point during this upcoming season.  Whether or not he sticks around with the big club will likely depend on his commitment and attention to detail on the defensive end of the ice.  

Shifting to the center position, there’s three names to watch.  John Beecher, Matthew Poitras, and Brett Harrison.  Each player brings a different style and skillset.  Beecher is perhaps the most well-known of the three, drafted 30th overall in 2019.  Beecher’s game is defined by speed and back checking ability, while his offensive game has been slower to develop.  In his first full season in the AHL this past year, he put up a 9-14-23 line in 61 games.  Beecher has great size at 6’3” and 200lbs and could be ready to jump to the NHL as a 4th line center.  Looking ahead, he should be expected to develop into a 3rd line pivot as he progresses.  Beecher’s ceiling beyond that will be determined by how much his offensive game develops, but the size and speed combination is hard to ignore.

Poitras and Harrison, on the other hand, are NOT lacking offensive skill!  Both players spent last season in the Canadian Junior’s Ontario Hockey League.  Poitras, the team’s 2nd round pick in the 2022 draft, is the more traditional playmaking pivot.  In 63 games for the Guelph Storm he put up a 16-79-95 stat line.  At 5’11”, and now likely north of 180lbs, Poitras has enough size to standup to the physicality of the NHL game and could make a push for a roster spot in Boston during next month’s training camp.   

Harrison earned a reputation as a snipper last season where he split time between the Oshawa Generals and the Windsor Spitfires.  Across 57 games he lit the lamp 34 times and picked up 35 assists for good measure.  At 6’2” and around 190lbs, Harrison already has an NHL caliber frame and could look to push for a roster spot as well.  Given his prowess as a shooter, he may find his first NHL opportunities on the wing. 

On defense, the Bruins have one prospect who is going to garner a fair amount of attention this season, Mason Lohrei.  He signed with the Bruins after his sophomore season at Ohio State and stands a towering 6’4” while possessing above average puck handling abilities.  I don’t expect him to make the jump to the NHL this season, but he’s certainly a name to watch!

Lines For 2023-2024

The Bruins could have some tough lineup decisions to make right out the gate, if some of their young players have strong showings in camp.  Here’s what the veteran group in front of them may look like:  

Forwards

Marchand – Zacha – Pastrnak

Frederic – Coyle – DeBrusk

van Riemsdyk – Geekie – Lauko

Lucic – Boqvist – Brown

Defensemen

Grzelcyk – McAvoy

Lindholm – Carlo

Forbort – Shattenkirk

Goalies

Ullmark

Swayman

Expectations

While the Boston Bruins will lack scoring depth upfront, their defense and goaltending talent & depth is ELITE!  With McAvoy and Lindholm the Bruins not only have two bona fide #1 defensemen, they have two of the top 15 D-Men in the league!  And in net, it’s hard to find a better combination than Ullmark and Swayman!  The team’s strength being built from the goal line out should keep the Bruins in most of the games they play this season. I fully expect the team to remain in the wild card hunt throughout the year.  Whether or not they can grab a playoff spot, while competing in the stacked Atlantic division, will likely come down to how much production they can extract from their top six forwards. 

Pastrnak, Marchand, & DeBrusk are, for the most part, resuming roles they have held previously.  Zacha proved ready for a top 6 role last season, and while limited, spent enough time at center to expect he will be up to the task of patrolling the middle of the ice full time.  Coyle and Frederic are the biggest question marks amongst this group; Ironic given that Coyle is one the team’s most consistent performers.  

Coyle possess great size and has always shown glimpses of the skill needed to be a top line center, but the offensive zone production has never reached near that level.  To be fair to Coyle, he’s rarely had the opportunity to consistently skate a top 6 role since his early days in Minnesota. If he can jump from his mid 40’s point totals of the last two seasons, up to the mid 50’s, the Bruins can consider his bridge season a success.  Frederic is the wildcard of the group.  He had a breakout year last season totaling 17 goals and 31 points.  Can he continue to build on that and score 20-23 this year?  The answer to that question might be the difference between making the playoffs or just missing out. 

With the Bruins’ reliance on their elite defense and goaltending, I expect the team to finish somewhere around 43 wins and 93 points.  Likely right on the line of qualification for the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.    

Returning to Contention

For years we have heard talk about “the Chara window” and then “the Bergeron window”, and watched the Bruins rightly sacrifice future draft capital to attempt to maximize the careers of their former stars.  Now it’s time to look at this team through the lens of a “Pastrnak & McAvoy” window. 

Don Sweeney will likely explore the trade market for a top 6 center, whose addition, could more appropriately slot the team’s forwards.  However, depending on the cost, the Bruins might be better off riding out this bridge season and looking to make their splash in free agency. 

Heading into next summer Boston should be poised to vault back into Stanley Cup contention.  The $4.5m in bonus overages, that the team is currently carrying like an anchor around their neck, will come off the books and the salary cap is expected to rise by at least $4m for the 2024-2025 season.  The team will have to re-up DeBrusk at a substantial raise from his current $4m (likely around $7m AAV) but Grzelcyk & Forbort’s combine $6.69m will come off the books as well.   Boston will easily have the cap flexibility needed to target a top line center! 

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews, as of now, is the clear top prize scheduled to hit the free agent market in July 2024.  If he inks an extension between now and then, that title will go to either top line pivots Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets or Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames, as both are expected to hit the market.  Even if Boston fails to land any of these three, the cap flexibility that they will have created will allow them to explore other options on the trade market, without having to sacrifice a core piece from the roster.  Sweeney’s approach to this past offseason, as painful as it’s been, has positioned the team to quickly ascend back to the league’s upper echelon of cup contenders in the near future!