Playing with Fire, the Phoenix Suns Real Gamble…
At the poker table of professional sports, ownership changes may be the biggest wild cards. When a team changes hands you never know exactly what the ripple effect will be. Sometimes new ownership groups come in, almost as silent investors, and do little to alter the day to day operations of the team. In other instances, a new leadership regime looks to make their mark and establish a new direction. When it comes to the Phoenix Suns, Mat Ishbia didn’t take long to indicate which category he would fall into. As Ishbia was nearing the completion of his deal to buy the Suns, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that, “Ishbia is eager to start his involvement with basketball operations and is expected to be a hands-on owner in matters of team building.” THAT WAS AN UNDERSTATEMENT!!!
Ishbia finalized his purchase, of a reported 57% stake in the Phoenix Suns at a $4 billion valuation, just days before the February 9, 2023 trade deadline. Somewhere around 60 hours later, the team had traded for Kevin Durant!!! In order to acquire the 13 time All-Star forward, Phoenix sent forward Mikal Bridges, guard Cam Johnson, FOUR first round picks (2023, 2025, 2027 & 2029), and one first round pick swap (2028) to the Brooklyn Nets. The massive trade was the very definition of a blockbuster! The timing of deal’s completion, around 12 hours before the trade deadline, meant there would be at least a little time for the dust to settle in the desert. After the acquisition, an injury limited KD to eight regular season games with the Suns, however, he entered the playoffs healthy and the team had a strong showing. They defeated the Los Angeles Clippers in first round and pushed the eventual 2023 NBA Champion Denver Nuggets to six games.
As the calendar turned to the offseason, Ishbia and his team went back to work on further reshaping the Suns. In the aftermath of the loss to the Nuggets, the team fired head coach Monty Williams. Williams had helped turn around the struggling franchise which had won an average of just 22 games per season in the four years leading up to his arrival in 2019. In the four seasons that followed, with Williams at the helm, the team posted regular season records of 34-39, 51-21, 64-18, and 45-37. His success with the Suns also stretched into the post season, having led the team to a Western Conference Title in 2021, before falling to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2021 NBA Finals. Despite a proven track record, Ishbia felt the team needed a new voice. Approximately three weeks later, on June 6, 2023, the Suns announced the hiring of Frank Vogel as head coach.
After the coaching change, anyone thinking things would quiet down in the Valley was greatly mistaken. On June 24th the Suns completed a deal with the Washington Wizards to bring in three time All-Star guard Bradley Beal! In order to acquire Beal, Phoenix sent guards Chris Paul & Landry Shamet to DC and surrendered even more draft capital. As part of the trade, Washington received four first round pick swaps (2024, 2026, 2028 & 2030) and SEVEN second round picks!!! The deal established the foundation of a top heavy, but highly talented roster, featuring Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and center Deandre Ayton. When free agency opened, the Suns did a great job of filling out their roster with veteran role players who could compliment their new core. Their free agency class was highlighted by Eric Gordon, Damion Lee, Bol Bol, and Yuta Watanabe, who had played with Durant in Brooklyn.
After the trades for Durant and Beal, it appeared that the Suns were out of moves that they could make on the trade market. The team had virtually no draft capital left due to the “Seven Year Rule” which, was established to prohibit the trade of draft picks more than seven years in advance. Appearances can be deceiving though, as the Suns unexpectedly shaped a couple of unusual NBA transactions. The first was a trade with the Memphis Grizzlies that brought three second round picks to Phoenix in exchange for two first round pick swaps (2024 & 2030). The second deal involved the Orlando Magic and resulted in the Suns acquiring three more second round picks in exchange for a first round pick swap in 2026.
All three of the first round picks involved in these trades were already tied to pick swaps in the Beal trade. Under these agreements, Washington will maintain the right to swap with Phoenix first, subsequently Memphis/Orlando will have the right to swap with the Suns for whichever pick the Suns have, either their own or Washington’s. As a result, Phoenix will have the worst of the first round selections between the Suns/Wizards/Grizzlies in 2024 and 2030 and the worst first round pick of the Suns/Wizards/Magic in 2026.
Ishbia’s background in the mortgage industry clearly influenced the trades with Memphis and Orlando. In essence, these are draft capital financing agreements. The Suns are borrowing draft capital, that they can use in trades to acquire players over the next few seasons, in the form of the six second round picks they acquired. Phoenix will pay that capital back, with interest, in the form of swapping into less favorable first round picks in the future. The structure of these agreements represents a creative solution that will allow Phoenix some flexibility in roster building over the next couple of years; however, it comes at a very high cost. Phoenix’s position in the first round of the draft for the next seven years is as follows:
2024 – Latest Pick of Phoenix/Washington/Memphis
2025 – NO PICK
2026 – Latest Pick of Phoenix/Washington/Orlando
2027 – NO PICK
2028 – Latest Pick of Phoenix/Washington
2029 – NO PICK
2030 – Latest Pick of Phoenix/Washington/Memphis
Mat Ishbia and the Phoenix Suns have redefined what it means to go ALL IN!!! Now the only question is, will it be worth it?
The city of Phoenix is desperate for a championship. It’s been 22 years since the Diamondbacks won their only World Series Title. The Arizona Cardinals have just one NFC Title to their name and have never won the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Arizona Coyotes are in disarray after nearly three decades in the desert, without so much as a Stanley Cup Final appearance. The Suns have been the highlight of the region’s professional sports scene in recent years and have won three Western Conference Titles in their franchises history, but never an NBA Title. Is 2024 or 2025 the year that drought ends?
There is little doubt that Phoenix will enter the 2023-2024 NBA season as one of the favorites in the Western Conference, but the competition will be tough. The Denver Nuggets are the reigning NBA Champions and feature a young core of players in or entering their primes. Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, and Aaron Gordon will certainly have a say in how the Western Conference playoffs unfold. Additionally, the FOUR time champion Golden State Warriors, are still lurking with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and now Chris Paul! Furthermore, a Los Angeles Lakers team led by LeBron James & Anthony Davis cannot be dismissed either.
The fate of the Suns may come down to the health and availability of Durant and Beal. After missing the 2019-2020 season recovering from a torn Achilles tendon, KD has played in just 137 regular season games over the course of the last three seasons, an average of 46 per year. Durant will be 35 years old when the season begins and it’s fair to wonder if he has entered a different stage in his career where he may not be able to return to being a 65+ game player.
Beal has had trouble staying on the court as well. After competing in all 82 of Washington’s games during the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons, he has played in only 57, 60, 40, and 50 games each of the last four years, an average of 52 games per season. At just 30 years old, Beal is probably the better bet to find his way back to being a consistent night in and night out anchor for the Suns lineup.
When you consider the injury history, and age in KD’s case, the true stakes of the gamble the Suns have made begin to come to light. Can this team withstand the grind, and wear and tear, that it will need to in order to successfully navigate four playoff rounds? What about three? Perhaps this team is better suited for a run at the newly established NBA Cup, which requires playing a total of seven games to win, rather than four best of seven series. Would a Western Conference Title or an NBA Cup be enough success to deem the gamble worth it in the eyes of the organization and their fans? Only time will tell…
The seismic moves made by Phoenix are akin to something out of a sports movie, and I can’t wait to watch it play out. I understand why the Suns were as aggressive as they were in constructing this roster, when you have a title shot, YOU TAKE IT!!! (There was no way Adonis Creed was passing up a title fight with Pretty Ricky Conlan!). Players like Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal don’t become available very often, and when they do, there’s a long line of teams waiting to pounce on that sort of firepower. Unlike Ryan Coogler’s film though, there is no pre-written script to follow in the NBA. Decisions organizations make in team building come with risks, and in this case the real gamble the Suns are taking, is with Devin Booker.
Booker is 26 years old and has five years remaining on his contract. The Suns had an option to build around their young star player, on his timeline, instead they pushed all their chips to the center of the table now. Even if the best case scenario plays out for Phoenix, with Durant and Beal remaining healthy, the organization may have limited their championship window with their 26 year old star to the next two seasons. As Durant ages out of a front-line role, the team will have very few tools at their disposal to add to another star to the roster. No matter how you look at it, the Suns are playing with fire!
