Four Five Seconds From Wildin! The NFL Running Back Situation

The NFL’s running backs have had enough!  They are banding together to fight for better compensation…well sort of…Over the course of the last few weeks, some the NFL’s top running backs began speaking out about their frustrations with the perceived value of their position in the modern game.  The conversation was sparked right before NFL training camps opened with three of the league’s top running backs having been unable to secure long-term deals, after being hit with franchise tags in the offseason.

Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants, Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders, and Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys will all be forced to play under one year contracts for the 2023 season.  Additionally, former Minnesota Viking, Dalvin Cook, and former Cowboy, Ezekiel Elliott, remained free agents as of the end of July. 

Regarding the franchise tagged trio, the San Fransico 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey said, “This is criminal.  Three of the best players in the league, regardless of position”.  Tennessee Titans star running back, Derrick Henry stated, “At this point, just take the RB position out the game then…”. The Cleveland Browns’ Nick Chubb explained, “We’re kind of handcuffed with the situation.  The biggest thing is that we’re the only position that our production hurts us the most.  If we go out there and run for 2,000 yards with so many carries, the next year they’re going to say you’re probably worn down”. 

In response, Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers organized a zoom call of the league’s top running backs to discuss their depressed market.  Ultimately, the group concluded that there was not much they could do at this point in time…we were not about to have a mass running back holdout. 

The situation seemed to be cooling off until Indianapolis Colts owner, Jim Irsay, decided to weigh in on twitter….

“We have negotiated a CBA, that took years of effort and hard work and compromise in good faith by both sides…to say now that a specific player category wants another negotiation after the fact, is inappropriate.  Some agents are selling bad faith” 

That escalated things quickly!  To make matters worse, twenty four year old, 2021 rushing title holder, Jonathan Taylor is entering the last year of his rookie contract with the club.  The friction between the team and the player over contract negotiations boiled over and Taylor met with Irsay to formally request a trade.  Irsay responding by publicly stating that the team wouldn’t trade Taylor, but he wasn’t done talking…. He followed up with, what is likely to be the most bizarre quote of the NFL season,

“If I die tonight and Jonathan Taylor is out of the league, no one’s gonna miss us.  The league goes on…It doesn’t matter who come and who goes, and it’s a privilege to be a part of it.”

So, WE’RE ALL JUST GOING TO DIE, but the league will outlive us so none of this really matters?  WHAT???

I have no idea what Irsay thought he was accomplishing with that remark, but I can shed some light on how we got here.  The running back labor market is subject to the same supply and demand principles as every other position in the NFL.  Quarterbacks, for example, are in very high demand due to their impact on the game, but also the very limited supply of those considered skilled enough to lead a team to a Super Bowl title.  That dynamic has driven the top QB salaries above $50m per season.

Shifts in offensive philosophies over the past decade and half have placed more emphasis on the passing game, reducing the demand for high end talent at the running back position.  At the same time, defenses have adjusted to the new styles of offense and are more willing to sacrifice yards in the run game in order to prevent big plays down the field.  The counter measures employed by NFL defenses have made it easier to run the ball than it was in the past, increasing the supply of running backs capable of performing the role.  These market factors have also collided with the recent analytics movement in front offices.  

The reliance on analytics has led to the perception of the position that Nick Chubb detailed, as the yardage racks up, FOUR-FIVES become FOUR-SIXES and teams move on.  The result has been football operations departments preferring to draft younger, less expensive, running backs every few years rather than paying a premium for established players.  These dynamics also make running back holdouts largely ineffective as teams are most likely to respond by accelerating their timeline to replace the players.  

The good news for running backs is that the turnover at the position leads to more opportunity for young players to break into the league at the position.  A mid round draft pick can still make over $4m over the course of their rookie deal.  A top pick, like Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson (drafted 8th overall in 2023) will make almost $22m over the four years of his deal.  The bad news is that there is limited opportunity to secure a large second contract. 

Many of the league’s top backs are looking at going from a four year rookie deal that paid them between $4m to $10m in total, to hoping for a year or two of franchise tag money of around $10 to $12m per year.  Having such a low tag number, relative to other positions, further depresses the market for second contracts of running backs not deemed worthy of the franchise tag by their teams.  If the top running backs are getting $10m to $12m per season, and there are a significant number of rookie contracts paying more than $3m in their final season, there’s not much room to slot in the mid-level veteran players. 

The problem is that the franchise tag disproportionally impacts running backs negatively.  The reason being is that the franchise tag amounts are determined by the top five salaries at a given position, over the previous five years.  Due to the labor market dynamics outlined above, even the best running backs in the league are not able to secure contracts large enough to significantly move the franchise tag numbers.   Unfortunately, this will likely be the case through the 2030 season when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.  Any changes prior to that would likely require the players offering the league something, that the owners feel is valuable enough, to open negotiations to amend the CBA. 

Regardless of whether it takes place when the next CBA goes into effect in 2031, or on an accelerated timeline, what might the owners want in exchange for eliminating the franchise tag?  The answer is something SIGNIFICANT!  A large part of the reason that the franchise and transition tags still exist is that the owners viewed removing them as a non-starter during the last CBA negotiation, and it was too difficult to rally the majority of the NFLPA’s workforce behind opposing that deal point. 

The first challenge for the NFLPA will be unifying all their players around the fact that, while very few will receive a franchise tag during their careers, the continued existence of the tags prevents true free agency and drive player salaries down across the board, regardless of position.  If the players can align on the need to remove the tags from the CBA then they will have to determine what they are willing to give the owners in exchange.

A starting point might be the number of international games, which is one clause in the current CBA that was written with an intent to revisit it, prior to the expiration of the agreement.  Under the current terms the NFL will not play more than 10 regular season games abroad in a given year, until at least 2025.  Until the day comes that the NFL has established a team or teams in Europe, I expect the league to attempt to move towards a regular season that features 16 international games, with each of the 32 teams playing one game abroad each season. 

Would six more international games be enough of a concession from the players to eliminate the franchise tag?  Probably not. My guess is that the owners are going to fight to hold onto the franchise tag for as long as they can, and if they ever become willing to use it as a bargaining chip, it may only be in play for the crown jewel of their desired regular season NFL schedule…the addition of an 18th game to the calendar.