Nine Things: My 9 Most Interesting Things Entering The 2023 NFL Season

The 2023 NFL season is less than a week away!!! I can’t wait and have been thinking about all the teams, players, and story lines I’m most interested in following.  I started making a list and it was WAY TOO LONG, so instead, here are my top 9 most interesting things to look for on the field entering this season!

I got a list, here’s the order of my list that it’s in, it goes...

#1 – Patrick Mahomes

Yes, this one is obvious but also NECESSARY!  Mahomes is entering his 7th season in the league (6th as a starter) and has already led the Kansas City Chiefs to three AFC Titles and two Super Bowl Titles.  As insane as it is to think of anyone chasing down Tom Brady’s records of 10 Conference Titles (9 AFC, 1 NFC) and SEVEN Lombardi Trophies, Mahomes, on the verge of his 28th birthday, is at the very least in pursuit.  IF the Chiefs can win Super Bowl LVIII on February 11, 2024, the seven seasons resumes of the two future Hall of Famers would read like this (Brady: 4 AFC Titles/3 Super Bowl Titles; Mahomes 4 AFC Titles/3 Super Bowl Titles). 

I’m not booking the Chiefs Las Vegas hotel rooms just yet but, last season’s victory over the Philadelphia Eagles raised the stakes for Mahomes.  For most quarterbacks the goal is climbing to the NFL mountain top once before their career is over.  Having already done so twice puts 15 in a different tier.  Of the 31 other starting quarterbacks who will be under center next week, here’s the list of the Super Bowl winners*:  Aaron Rodgers (1), Russell Wilson (1); Matthew Stafford (1)…THAT’S IT!  And none of them have won two.  Of the three, only Wilson can claim multiple Conference Titles on his resume (2 NFC: 2013, 2014). 

The bar that Mahomes is trying to reach has been set astronomically high.  Mahomes has said that reaching Brady’s records of 10 Super Bowl appearances and 7 wins “seems impossible” while also stating he will “strive to get as close as I can”.  Even if Kansas City becomes the first team in twenty years to win back to back Super Bowls (New England Patriots: 2003, 2004), it’s still far more likely that Mahomes falls short of Brady’s marks…However, that’s not entirely the point.  It’s so rare that we even get to see someone in pursuit of this sort of greatness.  Maybe it’s easier to overlook because Brady just retired but, every NFL fan should try to watch as much of Patrick Mahomes as they can because what he is doing is SPECIAL! 

Mahomes is chasing history and a Super Bowl Title this season would give him a real shot at becoming only the 2nd quarterback ever with SIX Conference Titles and FIVE RINGS!  To achieve that, he would need to 2 more Super Bowl victories AFTER repeating as champs this season.  If we assume he can maintain a high level of play through age 38, that would give him a decade to do so.  It’s why picking up a 3rd ring, combined with the chance to complete a historic back to back run, raises the stakes so much this season! 

Can I tell the truth?...This shit DO come with Trophies!

*As the staring quarterback, excludes Jimmy Garoppolo’s two titles backing up Tom Brady with the Patriots

#2 – Anthony Richardson

From all time great to all time unknown…I’m fascinated by Anthony Richardson.  At 6’4” 244lbs with a 40 time of 4.43, athletically the comp is Cam Newton.  The concern is that the production just wasn’t there to justify Indianapolis taking Richardson with the 4th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft.  Both quarterbacks had 1 year as full time starters in the SEC prior to being selected. 

Newton authored perhaps the greatest performance by a quarterback in NCAA history, completing 66.1% of his passes for 2,854 yards with 30 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions while also rushing 264 times for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns!  He also carried an Auburn Tigers team, devoid of NFL talent, all the way to a NATIONAL TITLE!!!  Richardson, on the other hand, completed just 53.8% of his passes in his final season at Florida for 2,549 yards with 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.  Richardson was effective with his legs rushing 103 times for 654 yards and 9 touchdowns. 

The athletic ability that Richardson possesses is absolutely tantalizing and I’m sure the Colts are thrilled to have him in their building.  Now, the question will be whether or not he can develop enough as a passer to consistently succeed in the NFL.  I’m expecting a lot of growing pains in Indy this year but also some can’t miss highlights!  When you take into account the Colts decision to use the 4th pick on Anthony Richardson, the better comparison is really Josh Allen.  Allen was drafted 7th overall by the Buffalo Bills after completing just 56% of his passes, at a lower level of competition, playing for Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference.  Allen, like Richardson, was drafted for his combination of size (6’5” 233lbs) and athleticism with the hope that he could be developed into a high caliber NFL quarterback. 

Josh Allen is an outlier who has dramatically improved his accuracy as a passer while becoming a bruising runner who punishes tacklers.  In many ways, Allen has developed into a similar NFL quarterback as Cam Newton.  It took Allen a few years to develop into the player he is today, and the Colts will need to be patient with Richardson.  Regardless of whether Indianapolis can develop Richardson on a similar trajectory as Allen, it’s going to be fascinating to watch!

#3 – Buffalo Bills 12 Personnel

More Josh Allen talk!  For years I’ve been of the opinion that the Buffalo Bills have not invested enough in building their offense around Allen.  They brought in Stephon Diggs in advance of the 2020 season but, have always felt like they were one chess piece short, especially in the playoffs…Enter, Dalton Kincaid!  The Bills selected the 6’4” 240lb Utah Tight End with the 25th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

Pairing Kincaid with Dawson Knox creates significantly more formation flexibility for the Bills offense.  I expect to see heavy usage of 12 Personnel (1RB, 2 TEs) and Kincaid possesses enough athleticism to be utilized in a variety of ways, including being split out wide.  If Buffalo elects to, they could easily increase the size of their offensive playbook drastically, as they virtually never used two tight end sets last season. 

Bill O’Brien and the 2010/2011 New England Patriots took 12 personnel to a whole new level with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, perhaps setting unrealistic expectations for how dynamic the package can be, but with Josh Allen at QB the Bills could roll out one of the more unique offenses we have seen in the last 12 seasons.  Josh Allen was already one of the most difficult players in the league to defend and that task just became much harder heading into the 2023 NFL season! 

#4 – Bengals Big 3 WRs

Unlike the Buffalo Bills, the Cincinnati Bengals will not be relying on 12 personnel this season.  The Bengals have the most impressive trio of wide receivers in the league in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.  Combine those three with QB Joe Burrow, and Cincinnati is a real threat to lead the league in scoring this season!  

What I’m most interested in with this group, is the urgency with which they approach the 2023 season.  The Bengals won the 2021 AFC Title but fell to the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI.  They followed that campaign up with a 2022 AFC Championship Game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead.  After a couple of years knocking on the door of delivering the city its first Lombardi Trophy, the Bengals time to break through is now! 

It also may have to be…Joe Burrow is entering the last year of his rookie deal with a cap number of $11.5m before his fifth year option kicks in next year at $29.5m; he’s due a massive contract extension that should pay him more than $50m per season beginning in 2025.  Ja’Marr Chase is entering his third season and will become extension eligible in the 2024 offseason.  He could be in line for a deal around $30m per season.  Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both entering the last year of their deals.  My guess, Higgins is back in Cincinnati in 2024 on the franchise tag but, Boyd is likely headed elsewhere in free agency.  It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that 2023 is Higgins last season with the Bengals, as this roster is going to get very expense very fast!

The Bengals should be in position to contend for years with Joe Burrow at the helm but, the roster will have to be reset around him multiple times.  I want to see if this team can come into the 2023 season with a no mercy, Super Bowl or bust, mentality and lock down the #1 seed in the conference.  Although they have proven over the last couple of seasons that they can win playoff games in Kansas City and Buffalo, their clearest path to Las Vegas would be hosting the AFC Title Game at The Jungle!

#5 – Micah Parsons

In a league with so much focus and emphasis on offense, my favorite player to watch plays defense!  Micah Parsons absolutely DESTROYS NFL offensive game plans!  In his first two seasons in the league, he has racked up sack totals of 13 and 13.5, respectively.  He has forced three fumbles in each of those two seasons as well.  His impact goes far beyond the numbers though. 

Parsons is the sort of versatile defender that can’t be defined by a single position.  You can line him up as an edge rusher, have him patrol the middle of the field as a linebacker, or even drop him in coverage.  The Cowboys deployed Parsons as a pass rusher far less in his sophomore season than in his rookie campaign, and yet he still reached 13 sacks!  As an opposing quarterback your #1 priority pre-snap is identifying where number 11 has lined up and then trying to anticipate where he will be headed once the ball is snapped.  The constant chess match that Dallas can orchestrate with Parsons opens up opportunities for other playmakers on the talented Cowboys defense and forces teams into making mistakes. 

As he enters his 3rd NFL season, the former Penn State product should continue his rise to stardom.  As valuable as Dallas has found Parsons ability to handle different responsibilities on defense, his impact as a pass rusher is hard to overlook.  I expect that the Cowboys will find more pass rush opportunities for Parsons this season and that 18 sacks and a Defensive Player of the Year honor may be in his future.    

#6 – Falcons Youth Movement

Does anyone know what to expect from the Atlanta Falcons this season?  Probably not…what I find interesting with their team is how they are going about building their offense.  Recently, we have seen the trend of teams identify their quarterback AND THEN investing heavily in the skill positions around him.  The most notable examples are Cincinnati, Miami, and Philadelphia. 

The Bengals drafted Ja’Marr Chase 5th overall in 2021, one year after drafting Joe Burrow 1st overall in 2020.  Miami selected Tua Tagovailoa 5th overall in the 2020 draft and then added Jaylen Waddle with the 7th overall pick in 2021 and traded for Tyreek Hill in the 2022 offseason.  Philadelphia drafted Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft and saw enough from him to name him as the starter entering 2021.  They then drafted DeVonta Smith 10th overall in 2021 and traded for AJ Brown during the 2022 offseason.

Atlanta has basically done the opposite!  With an aging Matt Ryan, the Falcons passed on the opportunity to draft quarterbacks Justin Fields or Mac Jones with the 4th pick in the 2021 draft, instead selecting Florida TE Kyle Pitts.  In the 2022 draft, Atlanta passed on QB Kenny Pickett, drafting USC WR Drake London 8th overall.  This past offseason, the team selected RB Bijan Robinson with the 8th pick. Meanwhile, the Falcons moved on from Ryan after the 2021 season, failed to resurrect Marcus Mariota last year, and enter the 2023 season with an unknown at QB in 2022 3rd round pick Desmond Ridder.

The Falcons approach is essentially an experiment that the rest of the league can evaluate as it plays out in real time.  Is it the offensive weapons that make the quarterback or the quarterback that makes the offensive weapons?  My opinion, it’s a combination of both and if you don’t have the right QB then you are going to end up wasting a lot of capital (draft and monetary) on what essentially becomes window dressing.  The quarterback is the engine to an NFL offense and a car without an engine isn’t going very far.  Atlanta has taken a huge gamble!        

#7 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Saturday, January 14, 2023…The Jacksonville Jaguars overcame a 27-0 second quarter deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round of the 2022 NFL Playoffs…Anyone remember that?  It feels like a lot of people have forgotten… 

Jacksonville has a very good young roster and Doug Pederson is an excellent head coach.  Pederson didn’t just get lucky leading the Philadelphia Eagles, with Nick Foles at quarterback, to a Super Bowl LII victory over the New England Patriots.  Pederson knows how to get the most out of his players and is exactly the type of coach you would want with a young developing quarterback.  In his first year with Pederson as HC, Trevor Lawrence improved considerably.  His completion percentage rose from 59.6% to 66.3%, his touchdown passes increased from 12 to 25, and his interceptions dropped from 17 to 8.  Some of that is learning from experience but, Pederson’s influence cannot be ignored.  Now, with the addition of WR Calvin Ridley, Lawrence is primed for a breakout year in 2023!

On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars are not getting the attention they deserve either.  The Jags finished last season 12th in total points allowed and have invested some serious draft capital on defense.  Linebacker Josh Allen was selected 7th overall in 2019 and has 27.5 sacks across 57 career games played (side note, the Jags pick made back to back years where the 7th overall pick in the draft was a player named Josh Allen – that has to be valuable trivia knowledge – you’re welcome!).  In the 2022 draft, the Jaguars selected Defensive End Travon Walker 1st overall and Linebacker Devin Lloyd 27th overall.  They also used a 2nd round pick on Conerback Tyson Campbell in 2021.  Continued growth from their young players could see Jacksonville’s defense vault into the top 8 this year.

With Jacksonville on the rise and the AFC South in a period of transition (rookie QBs in Houston & Indianapolis; Tennessee still trying to rebuild their offense post Corey Davis & AJ Brown departures) the Jaguars should be hosting an AFC Wild Card game again this season.  I still have Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Buffalo a cut above the rest in the AFC, but the Jags should very much be in the mix as a dark horse to emerge from the pack, outside of that group.

#8 – Aidan Hutchinson

Moving on from the Jaguars to the man they passed on with the #1 overall pick in 2022.  Michigan’s Aidan Hutchison was selected #2 overall by the Detroit Lions and the 6’7” 265lb defensive end made quite the impression in his rookie season!  Hutchinson finished the year with 52 tackles, 9.5 sacks, and THREE INTERCEPTIONS!  That’s right, a defensive end had more interceptions than Defensive Rookie of the Year, Cornerback, Sauce Gardner! 

Similarly, to how the Cowboys value Parsons versatility, the Lions are not afraid to drop Hutchison into coverage.  It’s a tactic they can implement to keep the opposing offense guessing, and trick quarterbacks into making bad decisions, as you don’t expect to see a defensive end with Hutchinson’s size anywhere but around the line of scrimmage.  When he is around the line, he has demonstrated an ability to set the edge and get off blocks when defending the run, as well as an ability to get into the backfield and terrorize quarterbacks!  The combination of those skillsets makes him the queen on the chessboard for the Detroit Lions defense. His continued development, and how Detroit utilizes him, should be fun to watch in 2023!

#9 – Chargers MONSTARS Line Up

The Los Angeles Chargers might not have the size at WR to compete in the NBA but, they are going to have a height and reach advantage against every NFL defense they go up against!  Los Angeles already had the 6’2” Keenan Allen, 6’4” Mike Williams, 6’1” Joshua Palmer, and 6’3” TE Gerald Everett, however, they decided that wasn’t enough size!  They went and used their first round pick on 6’4” TCU WR Quentin Johnston. 

Typically, teams like to employ a tall wide receiver, with speed, at the X position on the outside, a smaller quicker player in the slot, and a burner they can send in motion at the Z.  The X lines up on the line of scrimmage and needs to be strong enough to get off jams at the line.  It’s also the position that is split out the widest and requires players who can run go routes down the sideline and high point 50/50 balls (ex: Randy Moss).  The slot position typically lines up inside and off of the line of scrimmage.  Playing the slot requires short area quickness to run routes in the middle of the field (ex: Wes Welker).  The Z position is the other outside receiver position but, unlike the X, lines up off of the line of scrimmage.  Since the Z lines up off of the line of scrimmage, those players are much harder for cornerbacks to jam at the line.  Typically, the ideal Z possess top end speed, even if it’s at the expense of size (ex: Deshaun Jackson).  

The Chargers group profile primarily as X receivers who are able to succeed in the Z position due to their size advantage over many of the cornerbacks that they will go up against.  We’ll likely see a rotation of their top 4 WRs at those two spots.  The slot position is going to be interesting to watch.  The Chargers drafted Johnston’s TCU teammate, Derius Davis, to fill that role and RB Austin Ekeler will be heavily relied on to run some of those routes as well (targeted 127 times in 2022).

The Chargers leaning in heavily on size is a bit of a zig when the rest of the league zags.  While every team would love to have a big X receiver, they also tend to build their offenses around more balanced skillsets.  Justin Herbert should be throwing a lot more deep balls this year and giving his big wide receivers chances to elevate and make plays. 

Being able to send out a non-traditional lineup in the redzone could cause nightmares for defenses as well.  This is what I’m most interested in seeing! If Allen, Williams, and Johnston are all on the field at the same time, inside the 15 yard line, good luck…“covering” them may not be enough if Herbert is able to throw the ball over the heads of defenders and pinpoint it where only his receivers can catch it. 

I’m also going to be watching closely to see how defenses approach playing the Chargers this season.  The trend across the league the last couple of seasons has been to guard against giving up the big play, forcing teams to take shorter gains, run more plays, and allowing the defense the opportunity to clamp down in the red zone when there is less field to cover.  If teams are unable to prevent touchdowns when Los Angeles enters the red zone, they may have to become more aggressive earlier on in possessions and gamble on blitzing Herbert to try to get stops and force punts.

Lastly, if the receiver size isn’t enough of a headache for defensive coordinators, add in the fact that Herbert is 6’6” 236lbs, and a threat to run.  An early season rib injury seriously limited this element of his game in 2022 but, in the two previous seasons he had a combined 8 rushing touchdowns.  The 2023 Los Angeles Chargers offense just might be the NFL’s MONSTARS!

BONUS! – Aaron Rodgers 

Aaron Rodgers is must watch this season for a couple of reasons.  For starters, after 18 years in Green Bay, Rodgers is now a New York Jet.  How he transitions to a new team is going to be interesting.  Both Tom Brady in Tampa Bay (2020) and Peyton Manning in Denver (2012) got off to relatively slow starts trying to mesh what the veteran quarterbacks did well with the offensive systems their new teams previously had in place. 

Tampa found themselves at 7-5 that season, after a loss to Kansas City, but then reeled off 8 straight wins including Super Bowl LV.  Denver hit their stride a little quicker.  Sitting at 2-3 after a loss to New England, the Broncos won all their remaining 11 regular season games to finish 13-3, before falling in the divisional round of the playoffs to the Baltimore Ravens.  How quickly Rodgers and the Jets can get on the same page may make or break their season.  New York has a very difficult six game stretch to open the season leading into their bye week (BUF, @DAL, NWE, KC, @DEN, PHI). Fortunately for the Jets, four of those games are at home, including both contests against last season’s Super Bowl combatants.

The other thing to watch with Rodgers is where is he is in his career arc?  When Brady went to Tampa it was off of a down season, at age 42, and the questions about how much he had left were rampant.  In Brady’s case, it turned out that he had plenty left in the tank and that his 2019 season was more the result of a depleted roster around him than signs of his decline.  There are some parallels with where Rodgers is now with where Brady was entering the 2020 season.  Rodgers won back to back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021 but had an uninspiring 2022 season with just 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  It was the most interceptions Rodgers had thrown in a season since he had 13 in 2008, his first year as the starter in Green Bay.  Entering a season in which he will turn 40, is Rodgers about to have a bounce back year with Gang Green or have we seen the last of the QBs MVP caliber play?  

Penn to Paper: ESPN BETs Big!

On August 8, 2023, ESPN rolled the dice and announced a new licensing agreement with Penn Entertainment. As part of the agreement, Penn will rebrand their existing sportsbook from Barstool Sportsbook to ESPN BET.  Under the terms of the deal Penn will pay ESPN $1.5 billion over 10 years, but the new pact comes with real risk for the Worldwide Leader.  Unlike Barstool Sports, a significant attribute of ESPN’s brand is trustworthy reporting.  If the company’s credibility comes into question, it could undermine both their new venture and a core component of their current business model. 

ESPN’s move into gambling is not the first high profile example of the conflicts of interest that develop when the worlds of sports reporting and sports betting collide.  A couple of months ago, The Athletic’s Shams Charania found himself at the center of a gambling controversy surrounding the NBA Draft.  Shams is an NBA Insider who is often breaks many of the association’s biggest stories.  He also happens to be a paid FanDuel Partner and co-host of “Run It Back” on FanDuel TV.  FanDuel, like rival DraftKings, was built on fantasy sports, but became a major player in the online sportsbook space once sports betting legalization began to take hold in the United States during 2018. 

On June 22, 2023, a little less than eight hours before the NBA draft, Charania reported that Scoot Henderson was “gaining serious momentum at No. 2 with the Charlotte Hornets…”.  As outlined by Sports Illustrated, prior to the report, FanDuel had Brandon Miller at -650 odds and Henderson at +400 odds to be the second player off the board.  After the report, the odds flipped dramatically, making Henderson a -700 favorite and Miller a +400 underdog.  Ultimately, Charania’s reporting failed to align with the outcome of the draft. Miller went #2 to the Hornets and Scoot landed in Portland as the #3 pick. 

Shams’ reporting was very likely legitimate.  It’s not uncommon for there to be internal debate within a team’s front office right up to the deadline to make a decision; however, the potential opportunity to manipulate the betting public so that FanDuel could rack up substantial profits is obvious.  What if Charania had intentionally crafted a false report on the momentum behind Henderson to drive large amounts of losing bets on the number two pick?  That’s not an accusation, it’s a statement to highlight the real issue…The fact that the relationship between the two parties forces us to ASK the question. 

In the aftermath of the NBA Draft controversy, FanDuel claimed that the company, “is not privy to any news that Shams breaks on his platforms”.  Still, the questions were raised, and Shams’ reputation and character were called into question.  These are the treacherous, shark infested waters that ESPN has elected to wade into…

Every Adam Schefter or Adrian Wojnarowski tweet, that potentially influences movement of a point spread or money line, will now come under intense scrutiny.  The truly unfortunate part is that Schefter and Wojnarowski didn’t sign up for this.  ESPN has put them in an impossible position by adding an entirely new dynamic to their jobs.  Yes, their reporting could always move betting lines, but their employer was not previously in a position to benefit from those results. Prior to pursuing this opportunity, executives at ESPN and Disney undoubtedly discussed the public perception of venturing into sports betting and must have asked each other…Is this REALLY WORTH IT???  I believe IT IS!!!

Over the last decade, ESPN’s business has been shifting more and more towards becoming strictly a live rights company.  Studio shows like its flagship program, SportsCenter, just don’t draw viewers the way they use to.  The world has changed and how fans consume sports and sports media has changed significantly.  Sports talk and analysis has been largely democratized by platforms like YouTube and podcast networks.  Sports commentary in between the games has shifted to a market where viewers/listeners are able to choose between the personalities & styles they identify with, across followings large or small.  

The only properties that remain drivers to ESPN’s cable channel are live sporting events, for which, there’s simply no substitute.  The company’s reliance on live rights, and changing consumer preferences, are forcing ESPN to evolve.  Cord cutting and the dwindling draw of studio shows have resulted in declining revenue and a need to cut cost.

Recently, the company laid off several high-profile on-air personalities, including Jeff Van Gundy, Max Kellerman, Suzy Kolber, and Todd McShay.  Having taken steps to reduce expenses, the company will now look for new sources of revenue.  It’s been widely reported that ESPN is believed to be preparing the launch of a full direct to consumer streaming service, either to supplement or replace ESPN+.  Their current streaming service tends to feature lower profile games, with rating drivers like Monday Night Football, remaining exclusive to the cable channel.

If reducing cost and planning a move to a direct to consumer model is step one in ESPN’s evolution, leveraging the brand’s value, that has been built over 40+ years, is step two.  Even as fans no longer look to ESPN for talk shows and commentary in the way that they had in the past, those four letters still hold incredible name recognition and strong brand loyalty.  In looking to capitalize on their branding, the company may have placed the right bet with Penn!

Cultures and customs change over time. Sports betting is becoming a much larger part of the mainstream consumption of professional and collegiate sports.  As such, it’s a seemingly natural fit to integrate the brand most associated with the broadcast of big games with the viewers interaction with those games, through gambling.  Now is the time for ESPN to take its brand in a new direction!

Unlike Barstool, ESPN has a wide enough reach to potentially draw bettors from competing sportsbooks.  Battles will have to be waged with juggernauts, DraftKings & FanDuel, and Penn’s ability to deliver on the tech will be critical, but the partnership could commandeer significant market share. 

The potential conflict of interest concerns will continue to be raised and regulators may intervene at some point.  In the near future, ESPN might have to decide between being a SPORTS NEWS outlet or a SPORTS ENTERTAINMENT platform.  Quite Frankly, it’s probably a shift they should make proactively, as Stephen A Smith is already established as ESPN’s most marketable personality. Doing so could help prevent what currently feels like an inevitable controversy. If the company is slow to act, and its hand becomes forced, the entertainment route is really the only option. It’s not that the “insider” reporting model can’t be monetized, it’s simply nowhere near as lucrative as the opportunity that legalized sports betting presents…

Cash Rules Everything Around Me, C.R.E.A.M.…Get the money!  

Entertainment PAYS!

Just For Kicks: The NFL’s New Rule

With the kickoff of the 2023 NFL season just a month away, now is a perfect time to revisit a key rule change for the upcoming season.  During the offseason, the NFL implemented a new kickoff rule on a one-year trial basis.  Under the new regulations, any kickoff that is fair caught inside of the 25 yard line, will be treated as if it’s a touchback with the offense beginning their possession from the 25 yard line.  According to the league, the goal is to reduce concussions by reducing the kickoff return rate from 38% in 2022 to a projected 31% in 2023. 

Over the years the NFL has rightly taken steps to make an inherently violent game safer however, football will never be considered “safe”.  While great progress has been made in protecting defenseless players, the kickoff has remained a play that the NFL cannot seem to reduce the risk of injury below their desired level.  

Prior to the 2011 season, the NFL moved the kickoff from the 30 yard line to the 35, with the intent of making it easier for the kicking team to send ball into the end zone and produce more touchbacks.  In advance of the 2016 season, as returners continued to take the ball out of the end zone, the NFL moved kickoff touchbacks out from the 20 yard line to the 25. The change was made to further incentivize teams to take a knee when kicks traveled into their end zone. 

The previous rule changes have succeeded in bringing the return rate below 40%; however, some teams still look to leverage the rules in a way to gain a competitive advantage for their defenses.  With kickoffs coming from the 35 instead of the 30, rather than kick the ball into the end zone, a kicker can kick the ball shorter (to the 5-10 yard line) and with more height/hang time.  Doing so gives the coverage unit time to get down field to make a tackle.  Additionally, the change to bring touchbacks out to the 25 yard line instead of the 20, had the unintended consequence of encouraging teams to employee this strategy.  The cost/benefit analysis shifted from whether you believed your team could make a tackle inside the 20 to whether your coverage unit could put an end to a return inside the 25. 

NFL games are won and lost on the slimmest of margins and consistently forcing your opponent to start at their 22 yard line rather than the 25 is not insignificant in the eyes of the game’s best coaches.  More importantly, forcing a team to return a kick also forces them into having to protect the football.  Every kick return is an opportunity for the kicking team to force a turnover that could swing the outcome of a game.  The new rule looks to put an end to that strategy but, will it play out as the NFL believes? 

The biggest issue with the new rule is that it has largely removed the incentive for a kicking team to kick the ball into the end zone.  Under the previous rule, if a team wasn’t confident in their coverage unit, they would kick the ball into the end zone for a touchback.  Now, there is minimal risk for those teams to kick the ball shorter and force their opponent to make a fair catch.  Virtually every ball kicked inside the 10 yard line should be fair caught; attempting a return on those kicks would be overly aggressive under the new rule. 

For the kicking team, the best case scenario is a muff and an opportunity to recover a live ball, while the worst case scenario is likely a touchback.  If it plays out this way, the NFL will not have increased player safety at all. The 21 players not receiving the kick will still have to play the kickoff out as if it will be returned.  Although the most visible, highlight reel, impacts on a kickoff take place between the ball carrier and the tackler, collisions happen all over the field between those pursuing the returner and those blocking. 

Teams that place an extra emphasis on special teams, like the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, may look to implement another strategy to force returns and limit opponent field position; a modified deep squib kick.  The squib kick involves kicking the ball into the ground, causing multiple bounces, before it reaches a kick returner. 

Unlike an onside kick, squib kicks are sent much deeper than 10-15 yards down the field. They are traditionally used in late half/late game situations when a team wants to eliminate the possibility of a big return by forcing someone other than the receiving team’s primary kick returner to field the ball. 

The goal in these situations is not necessarily to pin the opponent deep inside their own 25 yard line; however, there has never been a previous incentive to try to use squib kicks for that purpose.  Historically, if a team was trying to pin their opponent deep, they would do so with a traditional kickoff. The new rule takes that approach off the table due to the treatment of a fair catch. 

A modified squib kick that sends the ball to the opponents 5-10 yard line could wreak havoc!  The fair catch rule would not apply as a ball that has hit the ground after being kicked (i.e. not a drop kick) cannot be fair caught. Also, kickoffs that do not reach the end zone are live balls that can be recovered by either team.  The receiving team would be forced to corral the bouncing ball and return it, creating turnover opportunities for the kicking team. 

The downside of this deep squib kick strategy is the difficulty in controlling where a squib kick ends up.  Kickers would need to achieve a certain level of precision in order to employ this strategy consistently. A squib kick that bounces out of bounds, prior to reaching the goal line, would result in a penalty which would set the opposing offense up at their own 40 yard line.  Despite the risk, keep an eye out for this approach throughout the 2023 NFL season, some teams will surely roll the dice!

Four Five Seconds From Wildin! The NFL Running Back Situation

The NFL’s running backs have had enough!  They are banding together to fight for better compensation…well sort of…Over the course of the last few weeks, some the NFL’s top running backs began speaking out about their frustrations with the perceived value of their position in the modern game.  The conversation was sparked right before NFL training camps opened with three of the league’s top running backs having been unable to secure long-term deals, after being hit with franchise tags in the offseason.

Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants, Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders, and Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys will all be forced to play under one year contracts for the 2023 season.  Additionally, former Minnesota Viking, Dalvin Cook, and former Cowboy, Ezekiel Elliott, remained free agents as of the end of July. 

Regarding the franchise tagged trio, the San Fransico 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey said, “This is criminal.  Three of the best players in the league, regardless of position”.  Tennessee Titans star running back, Derrick Henry stated, “At this point, just take the RB position out the game then…”. The Cleveland Browns’ Nick Chubb explained, “We’re kind of handcuffed with the situation.  The biggest thing is that we’re the only position that our production hurts us the most.  If we go out there and run for 2,000 yards with so many carries, the next year they’re going to say you’re probably worn down”. 

In response, Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers organized a zoom call of the league’s top running backs to discuss their depressed market.  Ultimately, the group concluded that there was not much they could do at this point in time…we were not about to have a mass running back holdout. 

The situation seemed to be cooling off until Indianapolis Colts owner, Jim Irsay, decided to weigh in on twitter….

“We have negotiated a CBA, that took years of effort and hard work and compromise in good faith by both sides…to say now that a specific player category wants another negotiation after the fact, is inappropriate.  Some agents are selling bad faith” 

That escalated things quickly!  To make matters worse, twenty four year old, 2021 rushing title holder, Jonathan Taylor is entering the last year of his rookie contract with the club.  The friction between the team and the player over contract negotiations boiled over and Taylor met with Irsay to formally request a trade.  Irsay responding by publicly stating that the team wouldn’t trade Taylor, but he wasn’t done talking…. He followed up with, what is likely to be the most bizarre quote of the NFL season,

“If I die tonight and Jonathan Taylor is out of the league, no one’s gonna miss us.  The league goes on…It doesn’t matter who come and who goes, and it’s a privilege to be a part of it.”

So, WE’RE ALL JUST GOING TO DIE, but the league will outlive us so none of this really matters?  WHAT???

I have no idea what Irsay thought he was accomplishing with that remark, but I can shed some light on how we got here.  The running back labor market is subject to the same supply and demand principles as every other position in the NFL.  Quarterbacks, for example, are in very high demand due to their impact on the game, but also the very limited supply of those considered skilled enough to lead a team to a Super Bowl title.  That dynamic has driven the top QB salaries above $50m per season.

Shifts in offensive philosophies over the past decade and half have placed more emphasis on the passing game, reducing the demand for high end talent at the running back position.  At the same time, defenses have adjusted to the new styles of offense and are more willing to sacrifice yards in the run game in order to prevent big plays down the field.  The counter measures employed by NFL defenses have made it easier to run the ball than it was in the past, increasing the supply of running backs capable of performing the role.  These market factors have also collided with the recent analytics movement in front offices.  

The reliance on analytics has led to the perception of the position that Nick Chubb detailed, as the yardage racks up, FOUR-FIVES become FOUR-SIXES and teams move on.  The result has been football operations departments preferring to draft younger, less expensive, running backs every few years rather than paying a premium for established players.  These dynamics also make running back holdouts largely ineffective as teams are most likely to respond by accelerating their timeline to replace the players.  

The good news for running backs is that the turnover at the position leads to more opportunity for young players to break into the league at the position.  A mid round draft pick can still make over $4m over the course of their rookie deal.  A top pick, like Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson (drafted 8th overall in 2023) will make almost $22m over the four years of his deal.  The bad news is that there is limited opportunity to secure a large second contract. 

Many of the league’s top backs are looking at going from a four year rookie deal that paid them between $4m to $10m in total, to hoping for a year or two of franchise tag money of around $10 to $12m per year.  Having such a low tag number, relative to other positions, further depresses the market for second contracts of running backs not deemed worthy of the franchise tag by their teams.  If the top running backs are getting $10m to $12m per season, and there are a significant number of rookie contracts paying more than $3m in their final season, there’s not much room to slot in the mid-level veteran players. 

The problem is that the franchise tag disproportionally impacts running backs negatively.  The reason being is that the franchise tag amounts are determined by the top five salaries at a given position, over the previous five years.  Due to the labor market dynamics outlined above, even the best running backs in the league are not able to secure contracts large enough to significantly move the franchise tag numbers.   Unfortunately, this will likely be the case through the 2030 season when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.  Any changes prior to that would likely require the players offering the league something, that the owners feel is valuable enough, to open negotiations to amend the CBA. 

Regardless of whether it takes place when the next CBA goes into effect in 2031, or on an accelerated timeline, what might the owners want in exchange for eliminating the franchise tag?  The answer is something SIGNIFICANT!  A large part of the reason that the franchise and transition tags still exist is that the owners viewed removing them as a non-starter during the last CBA negotiation, and it was too difficult to rally the majority of the NFLPA’s workforce behind opposing that deal point. 

The first challenge for the NFLPA will be unifying all their players around the fact that, while very few will receive a franchise tag during their careers, the continued existence of the tags prevents true free agency and drive player salaries down across the board, regardless of position.  If the players can align on the need to remove the tags from the CBA then they will have to determine what they are willing to give the owners in exchange.

A starting point might be the number of international games, which is one clause in the current CBA that was written with an intent to revisit it, prior to the expiration of the agreement.  Under the current terms the NFL will not play more than 10 regular season games abroad in a given year, until at least 2025.  Until the day comes that the NFL has established a team or teams in Europe, I expect the league to attempt to move towards a regular season that features 16 international games, with each of the 32 teams playing one game abroad each season. 

Would six more international games be enough of a concession from the players to eliminate the franchise tag?  Probably not. My guess is that the owners are going to fight to hold onto the franchise tag for as long as they can, and if they ever become willing to use it as a bargaining chip, it may only be in play for the crown jewel of their desired regular season NFL schedule…the addition of an 18th game to the calendar. 

Solving the NFL’s Gambling Problem

The days of legalized gambling on sports being restricted to places like Las Vegas are long gone! Since a May 2018 Supreme Court ruling gave individual states the authority to regulate gambling, over 70% of states in the US have legalized at least some form of sports betting.  The widespread legalization has taken a large economic driver from the Black Market to Wall Street, shinning a spotlight on activity that was previously hidden from the public eye.  The exponential increase in visibility has amplified the discussion around gambling at 345 Park Ave and resulted in a wave a recent suspensions of NFL players for violations of the NFL gambling policy. 

The 2023 NFL offseason has included nine player suspensions for gambling violations.  Most notable was the six game suspension of Detroit Lions top prospect, Jameson Williams.  The three-one-three wide-out’s punishment is the most high-profile gambling penalty levied by the league since former Atlanta Falcon, WR Calvin Ridley, was suspended indefinitely last offseason.  Ridley had taken a leave of absence from the team during the 2021 season to focus on his mental health and, in his time away, placed NFL bets over the course of a five day period.  Ridley acknowledged that he had placed the bets, which totaled $3,900 according to a report by Brett Smiley of Sports Handle. 

In the time since his suspension, Ridley was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars and reinstated by the league for the 2023 season.  While Ridley being away from the team at the time of his violation made his suspension unique, the suspension of Williams has raised many more questions about the NFL’s gambling policy.  Unlike Ridley, Williams was not suspended for betting on NFL games…he was suspended for placing bets on OTHER SPORTS while at a team facility. 

According to the NFL, “the gambling policy prohibits anyone in the NFL from engaging in any form of gambling in any club or league facility or venue, including the practice facility.”  Hold up, WHAT?  I’m sorry but, can someone from the league office explain to me how an NFL player placing a bet on an NBA or NHL game has any impact on the integrity of the National Football League? Furthermore, why it’s OK for an NFL player to place a bet on the Toronto Maple Leafs or Los Angeles Lakers from their couch but, doing so from the weight room is problematic???

The NFL has overly complicated its policies to its own detriment.  The complexity has given rise to discussion around the hypocrisy of the NFL for partnering with sportsbooks.  As a result, the league has been generating negative publicity centered around gambling, the very type of publicity its policies were put in place to prevent.  If it wasn’t for the poorly constructed rules, more of the focus would be on the fact that the gambling sponsorships that the NFL has secured are great for both the league and the players. 

Sportsbook sponsorships contribute to an increase in revenue that is split between the owners and the players, in accordance with the CBA.  The partnerships between the league and the sportsbooks also allow for the organizations to work together to identify violations of the NFL gambling policy, which should help ensure the integrity of the game. Unfortunately, the policies simply don’t make sense, the league needs to get out of its own way and simply the rules for everyone involved.

There is no debate worth having about whether or not the NFL needs to regulate gambling. The NFL ABSOLUTELY must protect the integrity of the game!  It is critical that consumers of the product have confidence in the legitimacy of outcomes however, there are much easier and less complicated ways to achieve that goal.  The NFL gambling policy should be as simple as, NFL personnel cannot place bets on NFL games, in a season in which, they were employed by any of the 32 NFL teams or the league office. 

A policy of this sort would be much easier for NFL personnel and the public to understand.  It would also extend the player exception for betting on other sports to all NFL personnel, while removing the restrictions on club and league facilities.  Currently, coaches and other league personnel are prohibited from betting on any sporting events.

Taking this approach would also close any loopholes regarding employment during a season, when players are regularly cut from rosters and join other teams days or weeks later.  If you collect a check from the league or an NFL team, you can’t bet on NFL games during that season, simple! 

The league office, NFL personnel, and the fans would certainly benefit from a clearer policy based on common sense. There’s still time for the NFL to correct the flaws in its gambling policy before the kickoff of the 2023 season.  A season which will build towards its Grand Finale on February 11, 2024 when Super Bowl LVIII is played…in Las Vegas!