Started From The Bottom, Now We’re Here…

We’re a little over a month away from the start of the 2023-2024 NHL season and I believe the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to win the Stanley Cup!  I KNOW, I KNOW…1967…Can’t beat Boston…not built for the playoffs…WE WANT FLORID-Ahhhhhh shit (checks notes - see 2023 Florida Panthers series)…Let me explain but, before I do, let’s look at how we got here.

On April 10, 2016 the Maple Leafs left the ice in Newark, NJ after a 5-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils.  The game marked the season finale for the Leafs and the result was one that had become all too familiar.  The team closed the season losing seven of nine and finished dead last in the NHL standings with just 29 wins and 69 points.  The franchise had hit ROCK BOTTOM.  In the last 11 seasons the team had qualified for the playoffs just once, a 2013 appearance made infamous by the epic Game 7 first round collapse against the Boston Bruins (BERGERON!!! BERGERON!!!)  

Starting from the bottom has a silver lining though, you can only go up from there.  Prior to the 2015-2016 season, the team had already begun the process of slowing rebuilding through the draft.  With the 5th overall pick in 2012 they added defenseman Morgan Rielly.  At 8th overall in 2014 they added forward William Nylander.  In the 2015 draft, the organization grabbed two-way standout winger Mitch Marner with the 4th pick.  In the aftermath of the 2015-2016 season, all eyes were on the NHL draft lottery.  The Maple Leafs’ last place finish gave them the top odds at the number 1 pick, however, those odds were still just 20%...

On April 30, 2016 the ping pong balls bounced north of the boarder and the fortunes of the franchise changed! Canada’s most populous city was awarded the #1 pick in the 2016 NHL entry draft!  It was the first time Toronto had the number one pick since 1985 when the team selected Wendel Clark.  Just under two months later, on June 24th, the Toronto Maple Leafs selected center Austin Matthews to open the NHL draft and EVERYTHING changed!

Matthews exploded onto the scene and took home rookie of the year honors, leading the Leafs in scoring with 40 goals and 29 assists for 69 points…Sixty Nine points, the same total that the Maple Leafs team had finished with in the season prior to Matthews arrival...Things had changed.  The 2016-2017 team finished with a 40-27-15 record for 95 points and qualified for the playoffs.  In the seven years that Matthews has been in Toronto, the team has reached the playoffs each season except for the Covid disrupted 2019-2020 season.  That year saw the team fall in the best of five “qualifying” round of the one-off 24 team tournament to award the Stanley Cup.  

While Matthews was establishing himself as one of the top five centers in the league, his fellow members of Toronto’s youth moment blossomed as well.  Rielly established himself as the teams number one defensemen and Nylander and Marner established themselves as consistent 30 goal threats.  The young core that the team had built through the draft also allowed them to look for reinforcements from outside of the organization. 

In the summer of 2018, Toronto out maneuvered the rival Boston Bruins to sign star free agent center John Tavares! The signing was a homecoming for Tavares however, it was about much more than nostalgia.  With the young core that president Brendan Shanahan and general manager Kyle Dubas had established, there was reason to believe that Tavares could be the missing piece to put the team over the top. 

The Leafs teams of the “Core 4” era (Matthews, Tavares, Marner, & Nylander) have largely lived up to expectations in the regular season but, have come up short in the playoffs.  Last season, the team finally broke through with their first playoff series victory.  In taking down the three-time reigning Eastern Conference Champion Tampa Bay Lightning, the Maple Leafs demonstrated a significant step forward in their growth as a team. 

Tampa Bay had done it all!  They won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021 before falling in the final to the Western Conference Champion Colorado Avalanche in 2022.  The Leafs emerging victorious after six hard fought games with a legitimate championship caliber team was no small feat.  Unfortunately for the city of Toronto, the team failed to build off that victory and bowed out of the second round in five games to the physically imposing, eventual Eastern Conference Champion, Florida Panthers…

That brings us to this this offseason and the major changes the organization has made.  Brad Treliving replaced Kyle Dubas as general manager and quickly went to work reimaging the roster.  While the team lost a key contributor in 2023 deadline acquisition, center Ryan O'Reilly, Treliving added forwards Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi who both bring a coveted mix of grit and skill.  The team also made a significant acquisition on the backend, signing puck moving defenseman John Klingberg. 

For years there has been a perception that the Leafs are too reliant on offense and haven’t invested enough in defense and goaltending to win the Cup.  That perception has been a reality to varying degrees over the past five seasons however, it’s no longer the case.  In the 2022-2023 season, Toronto finally found their answer between the pipes in Ilya Samsonov and the team finished 5th overall in goals against during the regular season.  The team’s five game defeat at the hands of the Panthers was tightly contested throughout, featuring three 3-2 losses, two of which came in overtime.  Losing Samsonov to injury early in Game 3 didn’t help…The reality is that Toronto was closer to winning the Stanley Cup than a five game second round defeat looks on paper.

Thanks to the offseason addtions, the Maple Leafs are finally in position to take the final step and climb to the mountain top of the NHL.  They enter the 2023-2024 season with even more depth and firepower than they have ever had on offense.  The Core 4 is now supplement with additional toughness and finishing ability in the form of Bertuzzi and Domi, the exact type of players the team needed in their series with Florida!  Bertuzzi was one of Boston’s best players against the Panthers, constantly creating havoc in front of the net and displaying a knack for finishing in close quarters.  Top prospect, left wing Matthew Knies, made an impact in limited action last year and should grow into a larger role in his first full season in the NHL as well. 

On the backend, Klingberg fills a very specific hole, a puck moving defenseman who can quickly transition play from the defensive end into an offensive attack on the rush in the matter of seconds!  He also adds a new dynamic to the Toronto powerplay.  More important than his own ability to score is the attention he will demand at the blue line. Drawing penalty killers out higher will open up passing lanes and space down low for the Leafs skilled forwards to work. 

Treliving has put the final pieces of the puzzle in place.  The Toronto Maple Leafs will enter the 2023-2024 season with the most complete team in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire NHL.  THIS IS THE YEAR!  Tampa Bay has had to peel key pieces off their roster each of the last four seasons as players have come due for raises in a time of a virtually flat salary cap.  Boston went all in last season and, after the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, is facing a bridge year before a possible return to true contention. Florida should remain in the mix; however, their run was fueled in large part by an unbelievable string of games by goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky that can’t be expected again.  The Buffalo Sabres are a team on the rise but are not yet in a position to close the gap on Toronto. 

The Maple Leafs should be the class of the Atlantic division this season and, while it won’t be easy, should be expected to advance to the Eastern Conference Final.  When they get there, the most likely opponent has to be the young New Jersey Devils.  The Carolina Hurricanes will be in the mix as well and the Pittsburgh Penguins, having added Erik Karlsson, can’t be ruled out either.  Regardless of who it is, the Leafs, with a top six featuring Matthews, Marner, Bertuzzi, Tavares, Nylander, & Domi, should be favored.   All the firepower upfront, coming off a season in which Toronto found their defensive identity, should be the difference.  Both in the Eastern Conference and in a potential Stanley Cup Final with the best the west has to offer!

Now we’re here…about 6 weeks away from the start of what I believe will be a HISTORIC season! The TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS will win the STANLEY CUP!!! 

Bear Market? The Boston Bruins Future Might Be Trending Better Than Expected…

The sky is falling in Boston!!!  Or at least, that’s what some people would have you believe…The Boston Bruins went ALL IN on the 2022-2023 season, set NHL records for wins (65) and points (135), but came up short of winning the franchise’s seventh Stanley Cup.  The team leveraged salary cap loop holes such as performance bonuses and long-term injured reserve to constructed one of the most talented rosters the league had seen in the salary cap era.  The organization understandably threw everything they had at one last run with Captain Patrice Bergeron, but going all in the way the Bruins did comes at a cost and now that bill is coming due!

Centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci both announced their retirements this offseason however, they will still show up on the team’s cap sheet for the upcoming season.  The bonus overages from their last contracts, totaling $4.5 million, count against the team’s 2023-2024 salary cap.  Combine that with raises for David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha, Trent Frederic, and Jeremy Swayman and the team was backed into a corner against the “flat cap” of the Covid era. 

As the cap hits stacked up like a losing game of Tetris, the Bruins chose to shed Taylor Hall’s contract, sending the highly skilled forward to Chicago.  They also watched short lived fan favorite Tyler Bertuzzi walk out the door and sign with the rival Toronto Maple Leafs.  In addition to the losses on the wing, the team is without a true number one center and the sentiment amongst much of the fan base is that all is lost, but is it?

The Current Roster

There’s no doubt that the Bruins are heading into a challenging bridge season; however, there is a very real pathway back to Stanley Cup contention.  It starts with the best winger in the game in David Pastrnak, fresh off a 61 goal campaign, and do it all defender, Charlie McAvoy, who continues to expand his offensive game while physically punishing opponents all over the ice!  Pastrnak is 27 and McAvoy is 25, both are signed long term.  Those are two ABSOLUTE cornerstones to build a cup team around! 

Looking ahead to this coming season, the team will rely heavily on some other young players entering their primes. Jake DeBrusk and Pavel Zacha are both 26, while Trent Frederic and newly signed Morgan Geekie are 25 years old.  DeBrusk and Zacha have established themselves as sold top 6 forwards and consistent point producers.  Frederic and Geekie are established third liners with the potential and opportunity to continue to grow their games this season.  At 26 years old, Brando Carlo is a sold stay at home defender and, at 24 years old, Jeremy Swayman is a potential franchise goaltender in the making.   

The roster also features some key veterans led by possible captain, Brad Marchand, and consistent two way center Charlie Coyle.  The backend is bolstered by Norris Trophy voter attention getter, Hampus Lindholm (finished 4th in 2023), and reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Linus Ullmark! 

Filling out the roster around this group is where General Manager Don Sweeney, really got creative.  Upfront, he brought back one of the most popular Bruins of all time in Milan Lucic, and added James van Riemsdyk, Patrick Brown, and Jesper Boqvist.  On the backend, he signed D-Man Kevin Shattenkirk.  What is important about these signings is that they are all around $1m AAV or less.  This means that any of these contracts can be fully buried in the AHL.  By filling out the roster in this way, Sweeney has provided veteran contributors to supplement his team’s core, while allowing opportunity for young players to break into the league, if they prove ready!

Prospects To Watch

Despite the narrative that the Bruins do not have a deep prospect pool, to which there is some truth, they still have some interesting names to watch.  Fabian Lysell is probably the most well known of the group. The highly skilled right winger from Sweden was drafted 21st overall in the 2021 draft.  At just 20 years old, he completed his first AHL season with 14 goals and 23 assists for 37 points in 54 games.  A bit undersized at 5’10” and around 170lbs, Lysell might benefit from another year in the AHL, although his offensive skillset might be too tempting for the Bruins to not at least get a look at him in a Boston uniform. 

Fellow first year Providence Bruin, LW Georgi Merkulov, is an undrafted Russian known for his shot.  At 22 years old, he put together a 24-31-55 AHL campaign over 67 games.  At 5’11” and 180lbs he has the necessary size to compete in the game’s top league so I expect to see Merkulov in Boston at some point during this upcoming season.  Whether or not he sticks around with the big club will likely depend on his commitment and attention to detail on the defensive end of the ice.  

Shifting to the center position, there’s three names to watch.  John Beecher, Matthew Poitras, and Brett Harrison.  Each player brings a different style and skillset.  Beecher is perhaps the most well-known of the three, drafted 30th overall in 2019.  Beecher’s game is defined by speed and back checking ability, while his offensive game has been slower to develop.  In his first full season in the AHL this past year, he put up a 9-14-23 line in 61 games.  Beecher has great size at 6’3” and 200lbs and could be ready to jump to the NHL as a 4th line center.  Looking ahead, he should be expected to develop into a 3rd line pivot as he progresses.  Beecher’s ceiling beyond that will be determined by how much his offensive game develops, but the size and speed combination is hard to ignore.

Poitras and Harrison, on the other hand, are NOT lacking offensive skill!  Both players spent last season in the Canadian Junior’s Ontario Hockey League.  Poitras, the team’s 2nd round pick in the 2022 draft, is the more traditional playmaking pivot.  In 63 games for the Guelph Storm he put up a 16-79-95 stat line.  At 5’11”, and now likely north of 180lbs, Poitras has enough size to standup to the physicality of the NHL game and could make a push for a roster spot in Boston during next month’s training camp.   

Harrison earned a reputation as a snipper last season where he split time between the Oshawa Generals and the Windsor Spitfires.  Across 57 games he lit the lamp 34 times and picked up 35 assists for good measure.  At 6’2” and around 190lbs, Harrison already has an NHL caliber frame and could look to push for a roster spot as well.  Given his prowess as a shooter, he may find his first NHL opportunities on the wing. 

On defense, the Bruins have one prospect who is going to garner a fair amount of attention this season, Mason Lohrei.  He signed with the Bruins after his sophomore season at Ohio State and stands a towering 6’4” while possessing above average puck handling abilities.  I don’t expect him to make the jump to the NHL this season, but he’s certainly a name to watch!

Lines For 2023-2024

The Bruins could have some tough lineup decisions to make right out the gate, if some of their young players have strong showings in camp.  Here’s what the veteran group in front of them may look like:  

Forwards

Marchand – Zacha – Pastrnak

Frederic – Coyle – DeBrusk

van Riemsdyk – Geekie – Lauko

Lucic – Boqvist – Brown

Defensemen

Grzelcyk – McAvoy

Lindholm – Carlo

Forbort – Shattenkirk

Goalies

Ullmark

Swayman

Expectations

While the Boston Bruins will lack scoring depth upfront, their defense and goaltending talent & depth is ELITE!  With McAvoy and Lindholm the Bruins not only have two bona fide #1 defensemen, they have two of the top 15 D-Men in the league!  And in net, it’s hard to find a better combination than Ullmark and Swayman!  The team’s strength being built from the goal line out should keep the Bruins in most of the games they play this season. I fully expect the team to remain in the wild card hunt throughout the year.  Whether or not they can grab a playoff spot, while competing in the stacked Atlantic division, will likely come down to how much production they can extract from their top six forwards. 

Pastrnak, Marchand, & DeBrusk are, for the most part, resuming roles they have held previously.  Zacha proved ready for a top 6 role last season, and while limited, spent enough time at center to expect he will be up to the task of patrolling the middle of the ice full time.  Coyle and Frederic are the biggest question marks amongst this group; Ironic given that Coyle is one the team’s most consistent performers.  

Coyle possess great size and has always shown glimpses of the skill needed to be a top line center, but the offensive zone production has never reached near that level.  To be fair to Coyle, he’s rarely had the opportunity to consistently skate a top 6 role since his early days in Minnesota. If he can jump from his mid 40’s point totals of the last two seasons, up to the mid 50’s, the Bruins can consider his bridge season a success.  Frederic is the wildcard of the group.  He had a breakout year last season totaling 17 goals and 31 points.  Can he continue to build on that and score 20-23 this year?  The answer to that question might be the difference between making the playoffs or just missing out. 

With the Bruins’ reliance on their elite defense and goaltending, I expect the team to finish somewhere around 43 wins and 93 points.  Likely right on the line of qualification for the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.    

Returning to Contention

For years we have heard talk about “the Chara window” and then “the Bergeron window”, and watched the Bruins rightly sacrifice future draft capital to attempt to maximize the careers of their former stars.  Now it’s time to look at this team through the lens of a “Pastrnak & McAvoy” window. 

Don Sweeney will likely explore the trade market for a top 6 center, whose addition, could more appropriately slot the team’s forwards.  However, depending on the cost, the Bruins might be better off riding out this bridge season and looking to make their splash in free agency. 

Heading into next summer Boston should be poised to vault back into Stanley Cup contention.  The $4.5m in bonus overages, that the team is currently carrying like an anchor around their neck, will come off the books and the salary cap is expected to rise by at least $4m for the 2024-2025 season.  The team will have to re-up DeBrusk at a substantial raise from his current $4m (likely around $7m AAV) but Grzelcyk & Forbort’s combine $6.69m will come off the books as well.   Boston will easily have the cap flexibility needed to target a top line center! 

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews, as of now, is the clear top prize scheduled to hit the free agent market in July 2024.  If he inks an extension between now and then, that title will go to either top line pivots Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets or Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames, as both are expected to hit the market.  Even if Boston fails to land any of these three, the cap flexibility that they will have created will allow them to explore other options on the trade market, without having to sacrifice a core piece from the roster.  Sweeney’s approach to this past offseason, as painful as it’s been, has positioned the team to quickly ascend back to the league’s upper echelon of cup contenders in the near future!

Penn to Paper: ESPN BETs Big!

On August 8, 2023, ESPN rolled the dice and announced a new licensing agreement with Penn Entertainment. As part of the agreement, Penn will rebrand their existing sportsbook from Barstool Sportsbook to ESPN BET.  Under the terms of the deal Penn will pay ESPN $1.5 billion over 10 years, but the new pact comes with real risk for the Worldwide Leader.  Unlike Barstool Sports, a significant attribute of ESPN’s brand is trustworthy reporting.  If the company’s credibility comes into question, it could undermine both their new venture and a core component of their current business model. 

ESPN’s move into gambling is not the first high profile example of the conflicts of interest that develop when the worlds of sports reporting and sports betting collide.  A couple of months ago, The Athletic’s Shams Charania found himself at the center of a gambling controversy surrounding the NBA Draft.  Shams is an NBA Insider who is often breaks many of the association’s biggest stories.  He also happens to be a paid FanDuel Partner and co-host of “Run It Back” on FanDuel TV.  FanDuel, like rival DraftKings, was built on fantasy sports, but became a major player in the online sportsbook space once sports betting legalization began to take hold in the United States during 2018. 

On June 22, 2023, a little less than eight hours before the NBA draft, Charania reported that Scoot Henderson was “gaining serious momentum at No. 2 with the Charlotte Hornets…”.  As outlined by Sports Illustrated, prior to the report, FanDuel had Brandon Miller at -650 odds and Henderson at +400 odds to be the second player off the board.  After the report, the odds flipped dramatically, making Henderson a -700 favorite and Miller a +400 underdog.  Ultimately, Charania’s reporting failed to align with the outcome of the draft. Miller went #2 to the Hornets and Scoot landed in Portland as the #3 pick. 

Shams’ reporting was very likely legitimate.  It’s not uncommon for there to be internal debate within a team’s front office right up to the deadline to make a decision; however, the potential opportunity to manipulate the betting public so that FanDuel could rack up substantial profits is obvious.  What if Charania had intentionally crafted a false report on the momentum behind Henderson to drive large amounts of losing bets on the number two pick?  That’s not an accusation, it’s a statement to highlight the real issue…The fact that the relationship between the two parties forces us to ASK the question. 

In the aftermath of the NBA Draft controversy, FanDuel claimed that the company, “is not privy to any news that Shams breaks on his platforms”.  Still, the questions were raised, and Shams’ reputation and character were called into question.  These are the treacherous, shark infested waters that ESPN has elected to wade into…

Every Adam Schefter or Adrian Wojnarowski tweet, that potentially influences movement of a point spread or money line, will now come under intense scrutiny.  The truly unfortunate part is that Schefter and Wojnarowski didn’t sign up for this.  ESPN has put them in an impossible position by adding an entirely new dynamic to their jobs.  Yes, their reporting could always move betting lines, but their employer was not previously in a position to benefit from those results. Prior to pursuing this opportunity, executives at ESPN and Disney undoubtedly discussed the public perception of venturing into sports betting and must have asked each other…Is this REALLY WORTH IT???  I believe IT IS!!!

Over the last decade, ESPN’s business has been shifting more and more towards becoming strictly a live rights company.  Studio shows like its flagship program, SportsCenter, just don’t draw viewers the way they use to.  The world has changed and how fans consume sports and sports media has changed significantly.  Sports talk and analysis has been largely democratized by platforms like YouTube and podcast networks.  Sports commentary in between the games has shifted to a market where viewers/listeners are able to choose between the personalities & styles they identify with, across followings large or small.  

The only properties that remain drivers to ESPN’s cable channel are live sporting events, for which, there’s simply no substitute.  The company’s reliance on live rights, and changing consumer preferences, are forcing ESPN to evolve.  Cord cutting and the dwindling draw of studio shows have resulted in declining revenue and a need to cut cost.

Recently, the company laid off several high-profile on-air personalities, including Jeff Van Gundy, Max Kellerman, Suzy Kolber, and Todd McShay.  Having taken steps to reduce expenses, the company will now look for new sources of revenue.  It’s been widely reported that ESPN is believed to be preparing the launch of a full direct to consumer streaming service, either to supplement or replace ESPN+.  Their current streaming service tends to feature lower profile games, with rating drivers like Monday Night Football, remaining exclusive to the cable channel.

If reducing cost and planning a move to a direct to consumer model is step one in ESPN’s evolution, leveraging the brand’s value, that has been built over 40+ years, is step two.  Even as fans no longer look to ESPN for talk shows and commentary in the way that they had in the past, those four letters still hold incredible name recognition and strong brand loyalty.  In looking to capitalize on their branding, the company may have placed the right bet with Penn!

Cultures and customs change over time. Sports betting is becoming a much larger part of the mainstream consumption of professional and collegiate sports.  As such, it’s a seemingly natural fit to integrate the brand most associated with the broadcast of big games with the viewers interaction with those games, through gambling.  Now is the time for ESPN to take its brand in a new direction!

Unlike Barstool, ESPN has a wide enough reach to potentially draw bettors from competing sportsbooks.  Battles will have to be waged with juggernauts, DraftKings & FanDuel, and Penn’s ability to deliver on the tech will be critical, but the partnership could commandeer significant market share. 

The potential conflict of interest concerns will continue to be raised and regulators may intervene at some point.  In the near future, ESPN might have to decide between being a SPORTS NEWS outlet or a SPORTS ENTERTAINMENT platform.  Quite Frankly, it’s probably a shift they should make proactively, as Stephen A Smith is already established as ESPN’s most marketable personality. Doing so could help prevent what currently feels like an inevitable controversy. If the company is slow to act, and its hand becomes forced, the entertainment route is really the only option. It’s not that the “insider” reporting model can’t be monetized, it’s simply nowhere near as lucrative as the opportunity that legalized sports betting presents…

Cash Rules Everything Around Me, C.R.E.A.M.…Get the money!  

Entertainment PAYS!

Cold Product: The NHL in Arizona

Current Situation

Since the 1996 relocation of the original Winnipeg Jets, the NHL has maintained ice in the Arizona desert. That ice may now be wearing thin.  On May 16, 2023, Tempe, Arizona residents voted against a proposal to transform a vacant lot and former landfill into an entertainment district anchored by a new 16,000 seat arena.  The estimated $2.1 billion project would have been almost entirely privately funded; however, some residents opposed large property tax breaks that were included in the proposition. 

Additionally, the city of Phoenix had filed a lawsuit attempting to block the project due to the proximity of proposed residential units to Sky Harbor International Airport.  The city was concerned that the noise level resulting from flight paths would be unacceptable for residential zoning. 

The failed arena plans hit the Coyotes franchise especially hard, as the team was already nearing the completion of its first season without an NHL capacity rink.  Two years prior the city of Glendale had terminated the Coyotes lease to Gila River Arena following the conclusion of the 2021-2022 season.  A statement released by the city read in part that the decision was made, “With an increased focus on larger, more impactful events and uses of the city-owned arena.”  Forced to pivot, the team played their home games for 2022-2023 season at Arizona State University’s 5,000 seat Mullett Arena and plans to do so again in the upcoming season. 

NHL Commissioner, Gary Bettman, expressed his disappoint in the aftermath of the Tempe vote.  He had previously spoke with optimism about the proposal, seemingly expecting it to pass, stating that the new arena plans would result in the Coyotes never leaving Arizona. 

More recently, speaking at the Stanley Cup Final between the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers, Bettman said, “The Coyotes are exploring their options in the greater Phoenix area, and our hope is that one of those options being explored will come to fruition.”  He also went on to say that he is hopeful the league can avoid relocation noting, “We're in a better position to resist leaving than maybe we were 20 or 30 years ago.”  From the outside, the NHL’s commitment to the region may seem odd.  In order to understand the league’s position, we need to look back on both the history of the NHL and the franchise in Arizona.

History

The Phoenix Coyotes were formed at a time when the NHL was quickly expanding across the Sun Belt.  Over the course of three seasons from 1992 to 1994, the league welcomed four expansion teams in non-traditional hockey markets: San Jose Sharks (’92), Tampa Bay Lightning (’93), Florida Panthers (’94), and Mighty Ducks of Anaheim (’94).  Additionally, 1994 saw the Minnesota North Stars relocate to Texas as the Dallas Stars and the Hartford Whalers would become the Carolina Hurricanes just four years later. 

A quick look at a map of the US will reveal to anyone that the Dallas and Phoenix markets are key to establishing the NHL’s presence throughout much of the Sun Belt, connecting South Florida to Southern California.  The only glaring missing link being Atlanta (I’ll save that one for another time!).  All these Sun Belt teams have found enough success to establish these locations as viable NHL markets…So, what’s been going on in the Arizona desert?

Over the course of 27 years in the Phoenix metropolitan area, the now Arizona Coyotes, have not given residents much to cheer about.  In 26 seasons the team has qualified for the NHL Playoffs only nine times and lost in the first round in eight of those appearances.  The only post-season success the club has seen came during the 2012 playoffs. During that campaign the Coyotes defeated the Chicago Blackhawks and Nashville Predators before being eliminated by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings in the Western Conference Final.  

The last 23 years have been even bleaker, as four of the teams nine playoff appearances came during the club’s first four seasons in Phoenix.   While you can hardly call them glory days, the days of Jeremy Roenick, Keith Tkachuk, and Rick Tocchet are long gone.  Those early years were filled with excitement in the region, and solid attendance gave an indication of the promise the Valley of the Sun held for the NHL. 

Unfortunately, for both fans of the team and the league, the franchise has been plagued by financial and ownership instability throughout much of its existence.  The team’s current owner, Alex Meruelo, purchased the team in 2019 marking the SEVENTH ownership regime change in the relatively short franchise history.  With constant change at the top, the team has never been able to sustain a direction and build a consistent winner. 

As a result, the losses have piled up, both on the ice sheet and within the finance department’s spreadsheets.  Rock bottom hit in 2009 when the team went into bankruptcy and had to be bailed out by the NHL.  The league assumed and maintained control of the team until it was able to find a buyer in 2013, that was willing to keep the team in Arizona.  One more ownership change followed in 2014 before Meruelo’s eventual acquisition. 

A New Direction

In recent years, under Meruelo’s watch, the Coyotes have seemingly found a path towards long term success.  The franchise hired Bill Armstrong as General Manager in September of 2020 and committed to rebuilding the team’s prospect pool and adding draft capital.  Over the next three entry drafts, the Coyotes have each of their first round picks, ten second round picks, and seven third round picks.  The team has also seen significant development from some promising young players over the last couple of seasons, headlined by forwards Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse, and Matias Maccelli. 

In addition to finding direction on the ice, Meruelo had a clear direction he was pursuing off the ice as well.  In response to the Gila River Arena lease termination, he struck the agreement with ASU to temporarily host the team and invested somewhere between $20 million to $30 million to build out necessary facilities to support the move.  The team’s agreement with ASU is for three seasons and includes a team option for the 2025-2026 season.  With the team’s temporary home secured, Meruelo and Bettman campaigned to garner support for the Tempe Entertainment District arena project.  The development was to be the final brick in laying the groundwork for the Coyote’s long term future in Arizona.  Then the ballots came in…

Up to this point, Meruelo and Bettman’s interests had been aligned, however, you have to begin to wonder how much patience Meruelo has left.  Meruelo purchased the team as a distressed asset with a plan to turn the organization’s fortunes around; while terms of the deal were not disclosed it’s believed he acquired a 95% ownership stake for approximately $300 million.  All of his actions since then have indicated a long term vision to organically grow a fan base and increase revenues by delivering a winner on the ice.  It’s why he was willing to make a significant capital investment as part of the ASU agreement.  Absorbing short term losses to build towards sustained profitability can be a very sound strategy, provided there is a path to achieve it. 

In an interview in January, Coyotes CEO Xavier Gutierrez indicated that the team is losing north of $10 million annually.  In addition to the limited seating capacity at Mullett Arena, the Coyotes do not have the same opportunities to generate revenue from fans in attendance that an NHL caliber arena would provide.  The limited number of fans in attendance results in significantly less concessions revenue, which is then split with ASU.  The Coyotes do not split merchandise revenue but, again, the limited number of people through the gates each night limits sales.  The current situation is simply not sustainable for an NHL franchise! 

Phoenix is on the clock…Meruelo was willing to invest nearly $2 billion to build an arena in Tempe and the residents of the city stopped him.  Two years prior the city of Glendale told him that their arena could be put to better use than serving as host to an NHL team.  The Phoenix Suns appear to have no interest in leasing the Footprint Center to the Coyotes.  At a certain point, the organization needs to look to move on, especially when there is a long list of cities that would be lining up to welcome the NHL. 

The league is also beginning to face pressure from the players.  Executive Director of the NHL Players’ Association, Marty Walsh, is on record saying, “If we don’t have, in the near future, a new location, we have to have a serious conversation.  These players can’t continue to play in a college hockey arena as National Hockey League players. They just can’t do it.  It doesn’t look right; it doesn’t feel right.”  Bettman may still wish to be patient and find a solution in Arizona, but if there isn’t an agreement for a new arena soon, we may be headed towards a showdown between an owner pursuing relocation and a commissioner resistant to the idea. 

Ultimately, if it comes to that, Meruelo holds most of the cards at this high stakes table.  Bettman is employed by the owners, and it would be hard to believe that a significant majority of team owners wouldn’t support Meruelo if he were to formally pursue relocation of his franchise, given the circumstances.  I don’t believe the door is completely closed on Arizona yet; however, if there is not a clear path towards a new Arena by the end of the 2023-2024 season, there’s a very good chance that it may be the Coyotes last in the Valley.   

Relocation

If the team is forced to flee the desert, where might they land???

Wild Cards

Sacrament, CA | San Diego, CA | Portland, OR | Hartford, CT | Hamilton, ON, CAN – fun to think about, but none of these are going to happen!

Quebec City, QC, CAN

As an NHL fan, restoring the Quebec Nordiques is by far my favorite option but, it is also the least likely of the five detailed here.  A move to Quebec would likely require a sale of the team to a Canadian based ownership group for a variety of reasons.  I believe that Meruelo is committed to running a highly successful NHL club and that a sale is not under consideration at this time.  The biggest deterrent for Meruelo to retain ownership while taking his team north of the boarder would be the significantly higher tax rates compared to other potential destinations in the United States.  Despite having an NHL ready arena in the Videotron Centre, the return of the Nordiques will likely remain on hold until future NHL expansion.  

Salt Lake City, UT

A little over 20 years ago, Salt Lake hosted the world’s greatest winter sports athletes for the 2002 Winter Olympic Games, serving as the home to an NHL team would seem like a natural fit.  In recent years, Utah Jazz Owner, Ryan Smith, has expressed interest in bringing a team to the city.  Smith’s interest would not prevent Meruelo from bringing his team to town but, the market is probably too small for him to gamble on.  The Salt Lake City metropolitan area houses around 1.2 million residents and, while a team would likely draw support from the neighboring Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana, it seems like a better fit for an expansion franchise than one looking to quickly turnaround its finances. 

Kansas City, MO

At about double the size of the Salt Lake market, Kansas City cannot be dismissed.  The city has a brief NHL history with the Kansas City Scouts from 1974-1976 and the level of sports fandom in the region is on constant display with the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs.  Additionally, the city’s downtown features the NHL ready T Mobile Center.  While KC is certainly a viable market, it is only about half the size the Phoenix metro area, making it a better candidate for future expansion than for the relocation of Meruelo’s team.  

Atlanta, GA

It’s been a long time, long time, we shouldn’t of left you, left you……And if at first you don’t succeeeeed, dust yourself off and try again, you can dust it off and try again, try again!  Okay, I get it, this one is going to drive some people insane!  Atlanta is already 0 for 2 in the NHL, but it’s one of two markets available to Merulo that are larger than Phoenix (it also gave me an excuse to shoutout the late great Aaliyah!).  State Farm Arena is ready to welcome the NHL back to the same sheet that the Thrashers skated for 12 years.  There’s also been an interesting buzz in league circles about the return of the NHL to the Peach State, with the question being asked not if, but when?  

Houston, TX

Hockey in H-Town!  The city represents the 5th largest metropolitan area in the country, about 1.5x the size of the Phoenix market.  It also has an NHL ready building in the Toyota Center and has been a great home for the Rockets, Astros, and Texans.  As for hockey in the state of Texas, the success of the Stars cannot be overlooked.  Additionally, the city is located close enough to Dallas to form a natural rivalry with the Stars, yet far enough away that the team wouldn’t be trying to establish their new brand in Stars territory.  One potential hurdle here is that Houston Rockets Owner, Tilman Fertitta, also owns the Toyota Center.  A lease agreement could be worked out, but Fertitta has also expressed interest in owning a NHL team.  If Meruelo is not looking to sell, Ferititta could try to block a move by refusing to enter into a lease agreement, keeping Houston open for a potential expansion team under his ownership in the future.

Prediction – The NHL makes its return to The A in the 2024-2025 season!