Started From The Bottom, Now We’re Here…
We’re a little over a month away from the start of the 2023-2024 NHL season and I believe the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to win the Stanley Cup! I KNOW, I KNOW…1967…Can’t beat Boston…not built for the playoffs…WE WANT FLORID-Ahhhhhh shit (checks notes - see 2023 Florida Panthers series)…Let me explain but, before I do, let’s look at how we got here.
On April 10, 2016 the Maple Leafs left the ice in Newark, NJ after a 5-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils. The game marked the season finale for the Leafs and the result was one that had become all too familiar. The team closed the season losing seven of nine and finished dead last in the NHL standings with just 29 wins and 69 points. The franchise had hit ROCK BOTTOM. In the last 11 seasons the team had qualified for the playoffs just once, a 2013 appearance made infamous by the epic Game 7 first round collapse against the Boston Bruins (BERGERON!!! BERGERON!!!)
Starting from the bottom has a silver lining though, you can only go up from there. Prior to the 2015-2016 season, the team had already begun the process of slowing rebuilding through the draft. With the 5th overall pick in 2012 they added defenseman Morgan Rielly. At 8th overall in 2014 they added forward William Nylander. In the 2015 draft, the organization grabbed two-way standout winger Mitch Marner with the 4th pick. In the aftermath of the 2015-2016 season, all eyes were on the NHL draft lottery. The Maple Leafs’ last place finish gave them the top odds at the number 1 pick, however, those odds were still just 20%...
On April 30, 2016 the ping pong balls bounced north of the boarder and the fortunes of the franchise changed! Canada’s most populous city was awarded the #1 pick in the 2016 NHL entry draft! It was the first time Toronto had the number one pick since 1985 when the team selected Wendel Clark. Just under two months later, on June 24th, the Toronto Maple Leafs selected center Austin Matthews to open the NHL draft and EVERYTHING changed!
Matthews exploded onto the scene and took home rookie of the year honors, leading the Leafs in scoring with 40 goals and 29 assists for 69 points…Sixty Nine points, the same total that the Maple Leafs team had finished with in the season prior to Matthews arrival...Things had changed. The 2016-2017 team finished with a 40-27-15 record for 95 points and qualified for the playoffs. In the seven years that Matthews has been in Toronto, the team has reached the playoffs each season except for the Covid disrupted 2019-2020 season. That year saw the team fall in the best of five “qualifying” round of the one-off 24 team tournament to award the Stanley Cup.
While Matthews was establishing himself as one of the top five centers in the league, his fellow members of Toronto’s youth moment blossomed as well. Rielly established himself as the teams number one defensemen and Nylander and Marner established themselves as consistent 30 goal threats. The young core that the team had built through the draft also allowed them to look for reinforcements from outside of the organization.
In the summer of 2018, Toronto out maneuvered the rival Boston Bruins to sign star free agent center John Tavares! The signing was a homecoming for Tavares however, it was about much more than nostalgia. With the young core that president Brendan Shanahan and general manager Kyle Dubas had established, there was reason to believe that Tavares could be the missing piece to put the team over the top.
The Leafs teams of the “Core 4” era (Matthews, Tavares, Marner, & Nylander) have largely lived up to expectations in the regular season but, have come up short in the playoffs. Last season, the team finally broke through with their first playoff series victory. In taking down the three-time reigning Eastern Conference Champion Tampa Bay Lightning, the Maple Leafs demonstrated a significant step forward in their growth as a team.
Tampa Bay had done it all! They won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021 before falling in the final to the Western Conference Champion Colorado Avalanche in 2022. The Leafs emerging victorious after six hard fought games with a legitimate championship caliber team was no small feat. Unfortunately for the city of Toronto, the team failed to build off that victory and bowed out of the second round in five games to the physically imposing, eventual Eastern Conference Champion, Florida Panthers…
That brings us to this this offseason and the major changes the organization has made. Brad Treliving replaced Kyle Dubas as general manager and quickly went to work reimaging the roster. While the team lost a key contributor in 2023 deadline acquisition, center Ryan O'Reilly, Treliving added forwards Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi who both bring a coveted mix of grit and skill. The team also made a significant acquisition on the backend, signing puck moving defenseman John Klingberg.
For years there has been a perception that the Leafs are too reliant on offense and haven’t invested enough in defense and goaltending to win the Cup. That perception has been a reality to varying degrees over the past five seasons however, it’s no longer the case. In the 2022-2023 season, Toronto finally found their answer between the pipes in Ilya Samsonov and the team finished 5th overall in goals against during the regular season. The team’s five game defeat at the hands of the Panthers was tightly contested throughout, featuring three 3-2 losses, two of which came in overtime. Losing Samsonov to injury early in Game 3 didn’t help…The reality is that Toronto was closer to winning the Stanley Cup than a five game second round defeat looks on paper.
Thanks to the offseason addtions, the Maple Leafs are finally in position to take the final step and climb to the mountain top of the NHL. They enter the 2023-2024 season with even more depth and firepower than they have ever had on offense. The Core 4 is now supplement with additional toughness and finishing ability in the form of Bertuzzi and Domi, the exact type of players the team needed in their series with Florida! Bertuzzi was one of Boston’s best players against the Panthers, constantly creating havoc in front of the net and displaying a knack for finishing in close quarters. Top prospect, left wing Matthew Knies, made an impact in limited action last year and should grow into a larger role in his first full season in the NHL as well.
On the backend, Klingberg fills a very specific hole, a puck moving defenseman who can quickly transition play from the defensive end into an offensive attack on the rush in the matter of seconds! He also adds a new dynamic to the Toronto powerplay. More important than his own ability to score is the attention he will demand at the blue line. Drawing penalty killers out higher will open up passing lanes and space down low for the Leafs skilled forwards to work.
Treliving has put the final pieces of the puzzle in place. The Toronto Maple Leafs will enter the 2023-2024 season with the most complete team in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire NHL. THIS IS THE YEAR! Tampa Bay has had to peel key pieces off their roster each of the last four seasons as players have come due for raises in a time of a virtually flat salary cap. Boston went all in last season and, after the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, is facing a bridge year before a possible return to true contention. Florida should remain in the mix; however, their run was fueled in large part by an unbelievable string of games by goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky that can’t be expected again. The Buffalo Sabres are a team on the rise but are not yet in a position to close the gap on Toronto.
The Maple Leafs should be the class of the Atlantic division this season and, while it won’t be easy, should be expected to advance to the Eastern Conference Final. When they get there, the most likely opponent has to be the young New Jersey Devils. The Carolina Hurricanes will be in the mix as well and the Pittsburgh Penguins, having added Erik Karlsson, can’t be ruled out either. Regardless of who it is, the Leafs, with a top six featuring Matthews, Marner, Bertuzzi, Tavares, Nylander, & Domi, should be favored. All the firepower upfront, coming off a season in which Toronto found their defensive identity, should be the difference. Both in the Eastern Conference and in a potential Stanley Cup Final with the best the west has to offer!
Now we’re here…about 6 weeks away from the start of what I believe will be a HISTORIC season! The TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS will win the STANLEY CUP!!!
