Nine Things: My 9 Most Interesting Things Entering The 2023 NFL Season
The 2023 NFL season is less than a week away!!! I can’t wait and have been thinking about all the teams, players, and story lines I’m most interested in following. I started making a list and it was WAY TOO LONG, so instead, here are my top 9 most interesting things to look for on the field entering this season!
I got a list, here’s the order of my list that it’s in, it goes...
#1 – Patrick Mahomes
Yes, this one is obvious but also NECESSARY! Mahomes is entering his 7th season in the league (6th as a starter) and has already led the Kansas City Chiefs to three AFC Titles and two Super Bowl Titles. As insane as it is to think of anyone chasing down Tom Brady’s records of 10 Conference Titles (9 AFC, 1 NFC) and SEVEN Lombardi Trophies, Mahomes, on the verge of his 28th birthday, is at the very least in pursuit. IF the Chiefs can win Super Bowl LVIII on February 11, 2024, the seven seasons resumes of the two future Hall of Famers would read like this (Brady: 4 AFC Titles/3 Super Bowl Titles; Mahomes 4 AFC Titles/3 Super Bowl Titles).
I’m not booking the Chiefs Las Vegas hotel rooms just yet but, last season’s victory over the Philadelphia Eagles raised the stakes for Mahomes. For most quarterbacks the goal is climbing to the NFL mountain top once before their career is over. Having already done so twice puts 15 in a different tier. Of the 31 other starting quarterbacks who will be under center next week, here’s the list of the Super Bowl winners*: Aaron Rodgers (1), Russell Wilson (1); Matthew Stafford (1)…THAT’S IT! And none of them have won two. Of the three, only Wilson can claim multiple Conference Titles on his resume (2 NFC: 2013, 2014).
The bar that Mahomes is trying to reach has been set astronomically high. Mahomes has said that reaching Brady’s records of 10 Super Bowl appearances and 7 wins “seems impossible” while also stating he will “strive to get as close as I can”. Even if Kansas City becomes the first team in twenty years to win back to back Super Bowls (New England Patriots: 2003, 2004), it’s still far more likely that Mahomes falls short of Brady’s marks…However, that’s not entirely the point. It’s so rare that we even get to see someone in pursuit of this sort of greatness. Maybe it’s easier to overlook because Brady just retired but, every NFL fan should try to watch as much of Patrick Mahomes as they can because what he is doing is SPECIAL!
Mahomes is chasing history and a Super Bowl Title this season would give him a real shot at becoming only the 2nd quarterback ever with SIX Conference Titles and FIVE RINGS! To achieve that, he would need to 2 more Super Bowl victories AFTER repeating as champs this season. If we assume he can maintain a high level of play through age 38, that would give him a decade to do so. It’s why picking up a 3rd ring, combined with the chance to complete a historic back to back run, raises the stakes so much this season!
Can I tell the truth?...This shit DO come with Trophies!
*As the staring quarterback, excludes Jimmy Garoppolo’s two titles backing up Tom Brady with the Patriots
#2 – Anthony Richardson
From all time great to all time unknown…I’m fascinated by Anthony Richardson. At 6’4” 244lbs with a 40 time of 4.43, athletically the comp is Cam Newton. The concern is that the production just wasn’t there to justify Indianapolis taking Richardson with the 4th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. Both quarterbacks had 1 year as full time starters in the SEC prior to being selected.
Newton authored perhaps the greatest performance by a quarterback in NCAA history, completing 66.1% of his passes for 2,854 yards with 30 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions while also rushing 264 times for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns! He also carried an Auburn Tigers team, devoid of NFL talent, all the way to a NATIONAL TITLE!!! Richardson, on the other hand, completed just 53.8% of his passes in his final season at Florida for 2,549 yards with 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Richardson was effective with his legs rushing 103 times for 654 yards and 9 touchdowns.
The athletic ability that Richardson possesses is absolutely tantalizing and I’m sure the Colts are thrilled to have him in their building. Now, the question will be whether or not he can develop enough as a passer to consistently succeed in the NFL. I’m expecting a lot of growing pains in Indy this year but also some can’t miss highlights! When you take into account the Colts decision to use the 4th pick on Anthony Richardson, the better comparison is really Josh Allen. Allen was drafted 7th overall by the Buffalo Bills after completing just 56% of his passes, at a lower level of competition, playing for Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference. Allen, like Richardson, was drafted for his combination of size (6’5” 233lbs) and athleticism with the hope that he could be developed into a high caliber NFL quarterback.
Josh Allen is an outlier who has dramatically improved his accuracy as a passer while becoming a bruising runner who punishes tacklers. In many ways, Allen has developed into a similar NFL quarterback as Cam Newton. It took Allen a few years to develop into the player he is today, and the Colts will need to be patient with Richardson. Regardless of whether Indianapolis can develop Richardson on a similar trajectory as Allen, it’s going to be fascinating to watch!
#3 – Buffalo Bills 12 Personnel
More Josh Allen talk! For years I’ve been of the opinion that the Buffalo Bills have not invested enough in building their offense around Allen. They brought in Stephon Diggs in advance of the 2020 season but, have always felt like they were one chess piece short, especially in the playoffs…Enter, Dalton Kincaid! The Bills selected the 6’4” 240lb Utah Tight End with the 25th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Pairing Kincaid with Dawson Knox creates significantly more formation flexibility for the Bills offense. I expect to see heavy usage of 12 Personnel (1RB, 2 TEs) and Kincaid possesses enough athleticism to be utilized in a variety of ways, including being split out wide. If Buffalo elects to, they could easily increase the size of their offensive playbook drastically, as they virtually never used two tight end sets last season.
Bill O’Brien and the 2010/2011 New England Patriots took 12 personnel to a whole new level with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, perhaps setting unrealistic expectations for how dynamic the package can be, but with Josh Allen at QB the Bills could roll out one of the more unique offenses we have seen in the last 12 seasons. Josh Allen was already one of the most difficult players in the league to defend and that task just became much harder heading into the 2023 NFL season!
#4 – Bengals Big 3 WRs
Unlike the Buffalo Bills, the Cincinnati Bengals will not be relying on 12 personnel this season. The Bengals have the most impressive trio of wide receivers in the league in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Combine those three with QB Joe Burrow, and Cincinnati is a real threat to lead the league in scoring this season!
What I’m most interested in with this group, is the urgency with which they approach the 2023 season. The Bengals won the 2021 AFC Title but fell to the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI. They followed that campaign up with a 2022 AFC Championship Game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead. After a couple of years knocking on the door of delivering the city its first Lombardi Trophy, the Bengals time to break through is now!
It also may have to be…Joe Burrow is entering the last year of his rookie deal with a cap number of $11.5m before his fifth year option kicks in next year at $29.5m; he’s due a massive contract extension that should pay him more than $50m per season beginning in 2025. Ja’Marr Chase is entering his third season and will become extension eligible in the 2024 offseason. He could be in line for a deal around $30m per season. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both entering the last year of their deals. My guess, Higgins is back in Cincinnati in 2024 on the franchise tag but, Boyd is likely headed elsewhere in free agency. It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that 2023 is Higgins last season with the Bengals, as this roster is going to get very expense very fast!
The Bengals should be in position to contend for years with Joe Burrow at the helm but, the roster will have to be reset around him multiple times. I want to see if this team can come into the 2023 season with a no mercy, Super Bowl or bust, mentality and lock down the #1 seed in the conference. Although they have proven over the last couple of seasons that they can win playoff games in Kansas City and Buffalo, their clearest path to Las Vegas would be hosting the AFC Title Game at The Jungle!
#5 – Micah Parsons
In a league with so much focus and emphasis on offense, my favorite player to watch plays defense! Micah Parsons absolutely DESTROYS NFL offensive game plans! In his first two seasons in the league, he has racked up sack totals of 13 and 13.5, respectively. He has forced three fumbles in each of those two seasons as well. His impact goes far beyond the numbers though.
Parsons is the sort of versatile defender that can’t be defined by a single position. You can line him up as an edge rusher, have him patrol the middle of the field as a linebacker, or even drop him in coverage. The Cowboys deployed Parsons as a pass rusher far less in his sophomore season than in his rookie campaign, and yet he still reached 13 sacks! As an opposing quarterback your #1 priority pre-snap is identifying where number 11 has lined up and then trying to anticipate where he will be headed once the ball is snapped. The constant chess match that Dallas can orchestrate with Parsons opens up opportunities for other playmakers on the talented Cowboys defense and forces teams into making mistakes.
As he enters his 3rd NFL season, the former Penn State product should continue his rise to stardom. As valuable as Dallas has found Parsons ability to handle different responsibilities on defense, his impact as a pass rusher is hard to overlook. I expect that the Cowboys will find more pass rush opportunities for Parsons this season and that 18 sacks and a Defensive Player of the Year honor may be in his future.
#6 – Falcons Youth Movement
Does anyone know what to expect from the Atlanta Falcons this season? Probably not…what I find interesting with their team is how they are going about building their offense. Recently, we have seen the trend of teams identify their quarterback AND THEN investing heavily in the skill positions around him. The most notable examples are Cincinnati, Miami, and Philadelphia.
The Bengals drafted Ja’Marr Chase 5th overall in 2021, one year after drafting Joe Burrow 1st overall in 2020. Miami selected Tua Tagovailoa 5th overall in the 2020 draft and then added Jaylen Waddle with the 7th overall pick in 2021 and traded for Tyreek Hill in the 2022 offseason. Philadelphia drafted Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft and saw enough from him to name him as the starter entering 2021. They then drafted DeVonta Smith 10th overall in 2021 and traded for AJ Brown during the 2022 offseason.
Atlanta has basically done the opposite! With an aging Matt Ryan, the Falcons passed on the opportunity to draft quarterbacks Justin Fields or Mac Jones with the 4th pick in the 2021 draft, instead selecting Florida TE Kyle Pitts. In the 2022 draft, Atlanta passed on QB Kenny Pickett, drafting USC WR Drake London 8th overall. This past offseason, the team selected RB Bijan Robinson with the 8th pick. Meanwhile, the Falcons moved on from Ryan after the 2021 season, failed to resurrect Marcus Mariota last year, and enter the 2023 season with an unknown at QB in 2022 3rd round pick Desmond Ridder.
The Falcons approach is essentially an experiment that the rest of the league can evaluate as it plays out in real time. Is it the offensive weapons that make the quarterback or the quarterback that makes the offensive weapons? My opinion, it’s a combination of both and if you don’t have the right QB then you are going to end up wasting a lot of capital (draft and monetary) on what essentially becomes window dressing. The quarterback is the engine to an NFL offense and a car without an engine isn’t going very far. Atlanta has taken a huge gamble!
#7 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, January 14, 2023…The Jacksonville Jaguars overcame a 27-0 second quarter deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round of the 2022 NFL Playoffs…Anyone remember that? It feels like a lot of people have forgotten…
Jacksonville has a very good young roster and Doug Pederson is an excellent head coach. Pederson didn’t just get lucky leading the Philadelphia Eagles, with Nick Foles at quarterback, to a Super Bowl LII victory over the New England Patriots. Pederson knows how to get the most out of his players and is exactly the type of coach you would want with a young developing quarterback. In his first year with Pederson as HC, Trevor Lawrence improved considerably. His completion percentage rose from 59.6% to 66.3%, his touchdown passes increased from 12 to 25, and his interceptions dropped from 17 to 8. Some of that is learning from experience but, Pederson’s influence cannot be ignored. Now, with the addition of WR Calvin Ridley, Lawrence is primed for a breakout year in 2023!
On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars are not getting the attention they deserve either. The Jags finished last season 12th in total points allowed and have invested some serious draft capital on defense. Linebacker Josh Allen was selected 7th overall in 2019 and has 27.5 sacks across 57 career games played (side note, the Jags pick made back to back years where the 7th overall pick in the draft was a player named Josh Allen – that has to be valuable trivia knowledge – you’re welcome!). In the 2022 draft, the Jaguars selected Defensive End Travon Walker 1st overall and Linebacker Devin Lloyd 27th overall. They also used a 2nd round pick on Conerback Tyson Campbell in 2021. Continued growth from their young players could see Jacksonville’s defense vault into the top 8 this year.
With Jacksonville on the rise and the AFC South in a period of transition (rookie QBs in Houston & Indianapolis; Tennessee still trying to rebuild their offense post Corey Davis & AJ Brown departures) the Jaguars should be hosting an AFC Wild Card game again this season. I still have Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Buffalo a cut above the rest in the AFC, but the Jags should very much be in the mix as a dark horse to emerge from the pack, outside of that group.
#8 – Aidan Hutchinson
Moving on from the Jaguars to the man they passed on with the #1 overall pick in 2022. Michigan’s Aidan Hutchison was selected #2 overall by the Detroit Lions and the 6’7” 265lb defensive end made quite the impression in his rookie season! Hutchinson finished the year with 52 tackles, 9.5 sacks, and THREE INTERCEPTIONS! That’s right, a defensive end had more interceptions than Defensive Rookie of the Year, Cornerback, Sauce Gardner!
Similarly, to how the Cowboys value Parsons versatility, the Lions are not afraid to drop Hutchison into coverage. It’s a tactic they can implement to keep the opposing offense guessing, and trick quarterbacks into making bad decisions, as you don’t expect to see a defensive end with Hutchinson’s size anywhere but around the line of scrimmage. When he is around the line, he has demonstrated an ability to set the edge and get off blocks when defending the run, as well as an ability to get into the backfield and terrorize quarterbacks! The combination of those skillsets makes him the queen on the chessboard for the Detroit Lions defense. His continued development, and how Detroit utilizes him, should be fun to watch in 2023!
#9 – Chargers MONSTARS Line Up
The Los Angeles Chargers might not have the size at WR to compete in the NBA but, they are going to have a height and reach advantage against every NFL defense they go up against! Los Angeles already had the 6’2” Keenan Allen, 6’4” Mike Williams, 6’1” Joshua Palmer, and 6’3” TE Gerald Everett, however, they decided that wasn’t enough size! They went and used their first round pick on 6’4” TCU WR Quentin Johnston.
Typically, teams like to employ a tall wide receiver, with speed, at the X position on the outside, a smaller quicker player in the slot, and a burner they can send in motion at the Z. The X lines up on the line of scrimmage and needs to be strong enough to get off jams at the line. It’s also the position that is split out the widest and requires players who can run go routes down the sideline and high point 50/50 balls (ex: Randy Moss). The slot position typically lines up inside and off of the line of scrimmage. Playing the slot requires short area quickness to run routes in the middle of the field (ex: Wes Welker). The Z position is the other outside receiver position but, unlike the X, lines up off of the line of scrimmage. Since the Z lines up off of the line of scrimmage, those players are much harder for cornerbacks to jam at the line. Typically, the ideal Z possess top end speed, even if it’s at the expense of size (ex: Deshaun Jackson).
The Chargers group profile primarily as X receivers who are able to succeed in the Z position due to their size advantage over many of the cornerbacks that they will go up against. We’ll likely see a rotation of their top 4 WRs at those two spots. The slot position is going to be interesting to watch. The Chargers drafted Johnston’s TCU teammate, Derius Davis, to fill that role and RB Austin Ekeler will be heavily relied on to run some of those routes as well (targeted 127 times in 2022).
The Chargers leaning in heavily on size is a bit of a zig when the rest of the league zags. While every team would love to have a big X receiver, they also tend to build their offenses around more balanced skillsets. Justin Herbert should be throwing a lot more deep balls this year and giving his big wide receivers chances to elevate and make plays.
Being able to send out a non-traditional lineup in the redzone could cause nightmares for defenses as well. This is what I’m most interested in seeing! If Allen, Williams, and Johnston are all on the field at the same time, inside the 15 yard line, good luck…“covering” them may not be enough if Herbert is able to throw the ball over the heads of defenders and pinpoint it where only his receivers can catch it.
I’m also going to be watching closely to see how defenses approach playing the Chargers this season. The trend across the league the last couple of seasons has been to guard against giving up the big play, forcing teams to take shorter gains, run more plays, and allowing the defense the opportunity to clamp down in the red zone when there is less field to cover. If teams are unable to prevent touchdowns when Los Angeles enters the red zone, they may have to become more aggressive earlier on in possessions and gamble on blitzing Herbert to try to get stops and force punts.
Lastly, if the receiver size isn’t enough of a headache for defensive coordinators, add in the fact that Herbert is 6’6” 236lbs, and a threat to run. An early season rib injury seriously limited this element of his game in 2022 but, in the two previous seasons he had a combined 8 rushing touchdowns. The 2023 Los Angeles Chargers offense just might be the NFL’s MONSTARS!
BONUS! – Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is must watch this season for a couple of reasons. For starters, after 18 years in Green Bay, Rodgers is now a New York Jet. How he transitions to a new team is going to be interesting. Both Tom Brady in Tampa Bay (2020) and Peyton Manning in Denver (2012) got off to relatively slow starts trying to mesh what the veteran quarterbacks did well with the offensive systems their new teams previously had in place.
Tampa found themselves at 7-5 that season, after a loss to Kansas City, but then reeled off 8 straight wins including Super Bowl LV. Denver hit their stride a little quicker. Sitting at 2-3 after a loss to New England, the Broncos won all their remaining 11 regular season games to finish 13-3, before falling in the divisional round of the playoffs to the Baltimore Ravens. How quickly Rodgers and the Jets can get on the same page may make or break their season. New York has a very difficult six game stretch to open the season leading into their bye week (BUF, @DAL, NWE, KC, @DEN, PHI). Fortunately for the Jets, four of those games are at home, including both contests against last season’s Super Bowl combatants.
The other thing to watch with Rodgers is where is he is in his career arc? When Brady went to Tampa it was off of a down season, at age 42, and the questions about how much he had left were rampant. In Brady’s case, it turned out that he had plenty left in the tank and that his 2019 season was more the result of a depleted roster around him than signs of his decline. There are some parallels with where Rodgers is now with where Brady was entering the 2020 season. Rodgers won back to back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021 but had an uninspiring 2022 season with just 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. It was the most interceptions Rodgers had thrown in a season since he had 13 in 2008, his first year as the starter in Green Bay. Entering a season in which he will turn 40, is Rodgers about to have a bounce back year with Gang Green or have we seen the last of the QBs MVP caliber play?
