Travis Hunter: Built for Prime Time!

Travis Hunter is a SUPERSTAR!  Not a star in the making, not someone who possesses the potential to do things we haven’t seen before, he’s doing them!  In his debut with the Colorado Buffaloes on Saturday, September 2, 2023, Hunter played both cornerback and wide receiver.  He was a full-time player on both sides of the ball vs TCU, competing for 129 snaps in 105 plus degrees heat! 

The thing is, Hunter was not merely out there a lot.  He was arguably Colorado’s best player on both sides of the ball (debatable only due to Shedeur Sanders incredible 510 yard & 4TD performance at quarterback). Hunter caught 11 passes for 119 yards and drew a key pass interference penalty in the end zone that set up a touchdown.  One of his 11 receptions was a clutch, 43 yard, contested catch on a 3rd and 16 with about 9 minutes left and Colorado trailing 35-31!  It was a critical play in the Buffaloes 45-42 upset victory on the road against the 2022 Fiesta Bowl Champions and National Championship runner up.

On the other side of the ball, Hunter dominated in coverage with two key plays standing out above the rest.  Late in the 2nd quarter, he prevented a touchdown on a 3rd and 10 from the Colorado 25 yard line on a throw to the back corner of the end zone.  Hunter was trailing TCU receiver, Savion Williams, who appeared to be completing the catch, but Travis swiped down with his right hand at the last second to knock the ball out!  The play preserved a 14-7 Colorado lead at the time and TCU subsequently missed a 43 yard field goal attempt on 4th down. 

Later in the game, with Colorado leading 24-21, Travis Hunter made THE INTERCEPTION!  Just north of six minutes to play in the 3rd quarter, with a 3rd and 1 from the Colorado 4 yard line, TCU ran a wheel route for their running back. Colorado was in man coverage and immediately after the snap it appeared that the throw would be there for a touchdown however, the Buffaloes used a bracket coverage technique, recognized what TCU was trying to do and executed their defense perfectly!  As the two TCU receivers on the right side of the offensive set ran slants towards the middle of the field, the Colorado defensive backs each passed their man assignments off to their inside help.  This allowed Hunter, who was lined up on the outside to break on the wheel route, dive in front of the pass, and make the pick!  While the execution of the defense was excellent, Hunter’s amazing athleticism and instincts elevated the play from simply preventing a touchdown to taking the ball away.  This one is going to be tough to top this year!!!

Coming out of the TCU game, many people wondered if Hunter would continue to play a full-time role on both offense and defense, or if this was a game plan specific strategy to leave Fort Worth victorious.  After the Nebraska game the following week, we appear to have our answer.  Hunter played 126 snaps in that contest and after the game, Head Coach Deion Sanders had this to say, "You gotta understand, everybody who was critical of that and saying he's gonna tire, I mean, shoot, they can't cook and answer the phone at the same time, I don't subscribe to that foolishness." Some people are just built different, and Hunter was built for Prime Time! 

It should be no surprise that Sanders is willing to roll the dice by allowing his star player to take a lead role on both sides of the ball.  Throughout his NFL career Deion was used as a part time wide receiver however, in 1996 with the Dallas Cowboys, he stepped into a much bigger role on offense while continuing to star as a cornerback on defense.  Sanders finished that season with 36 catches for 475 yards and one touchdown reception.  He’s now guiding Hunter on his journey as a two-way standout at the collegiate level. 

In the immediate aftermath of the TCU game, there were many comparisons made between Travis Hunter and Charles Woodson however, that comparison doesn’t really do justice to the season that Hunter may be on his way to authoring.  Woodson was a standout cornerback at Michigan who played some wide receiver.  In 1996, Woodson caught 10 passes.  In his 1997 Heisman Trophy winning season, Woodson had 11 receptions…This season, Travis Hunter had ELEVEN CATCHES IN HIS FIRST GAME!!!

The better comparison to what Hunter is trying to achieve came a year after Woodson won the Heisman.  In 1998 Champ Bailey put together a complete two-way season of playing both cornerback and wide receiver for Georgia.   In addition to his featured role on defense, Bailey caught 47 passes for 744 yards and 5 touchdowns.  After adding another 3 catches for 73 yards against Nebraska, Hunter now has 14 receptions for 192 yards in two games.  It’s not out of the question to think that Hunter could finish the season playing over 1,200 snaps and putting up something in the neighborhood of 1,000 yards on offense while locking down opponents on defense.

I said in the immediate aftermath of the TCU game that Hunter should be at the forefront of the Heisman conversation, along with USC quarterback Caleb Williams.  I still feel that way however, the history of the Heisman Trophy indicates that he would be a highly unlikely winner. 

The award has undergone a transformation over the last 20 years to become very similar to the NFL MVP award; it’s almost exclusive given to quarterbacks.  In the last decade we have had only 2 non-quarterback winners (2020 - DeVonta Smith, WR, ALA & 2015 – Derrick Henry, RB, ALA).  In the 10 years prior to that we also only had 2 non-quarterback winners (2009 – Mark Ingram, RB, ALA & 2005 – Reggie Bush, RB, USC).  When you look further back beyond the last 20 years, the award was primarily presented to running backs and Charles Woodson remains the only player to win the award whose primary position was on defense. 

Regardless of whether Travis Hunter can garner enough voter attention to win the Heisman, what he is doing is SPECIAL and he deserves to be in the conversation!  We may be witnessing one the most historic college football seasons an individual player has ever put together.  I’m not looking to make the public my enemy, but you better believe the hype!

Travis Hunter is built for Prime Time!

Nine Things: My 9 Most Interesting Things Entering The 2023 NFL Season

The 2023 NFL season is less than a week away!!! I can’t wait and have been thinking about all the teams, players, and story lines I’m most interested in following.  I started making a list and it was WAY TOO LONG, so instead, here are my top 9 most interesting things to look for on the field entering this season!

I got a list, here’s the order of my list that it’s in, it goes...

#1 – Patrick Mahomes

Yes, this one is obvious but also NECESSARY!  Mahomes is entering his 7th season in the league (6th as a starter) and has already led the Kansas City Chiefs to three AFC Titles and two Super Bowl Titles.  As insane as it is to think of anyone chasing down Tom Brady’s records of 10 Conference Titles (9 AFC, 1 NFC) and SEVEN Lombardi Trophies, Mahomes, on the verge of his 28th birthday, is at the very least in pursuit.  IF the Chiefs can win Super Bowl LVIII on February 11, 2024, the seven seasons resumes of the two future Hall of Famers would read like this (Brady: 4 AFC Titles/3 Super Bowl Titles; Mahomes 4 AFC Titles/3 Super Bowl Titles). 

I’m not booking the Chiefs Las Vegas hotel rooms just yet but, last season’s victory over the Philadelphia Eagles raised the stakes for Mahomes.  For most quarterbacks the goal is climbing to the NFL mountain top once before their career is over.  Having already done so twice puts 15 in a different tier.  Of the 31 other starting quarterbacks who will be under center next week, here’s the list of the Super Bowl winners*:  Aaron Rodgers (1), Russell Wilson (1); Matthew Stafford (1)…THAT’S IT!  And none of them have won two.  Of the three, only Wilson can claim multiple Conference Titles on his resume (2 NFC: 2013, 2014). 

The bar that Mahomes is trying to reach has been set astronomically high.  Mahomes has said that reaching Brady’s records of 10 Super Bowl appearances and 7 wins “seems impossible” while also stating he will “strive to get as close as I can”.  Even if Kansas City becomes the first team in twenty years to win back to back Super Bowls (New England Patriots: 2003, 2004), it’s still far more likely that Mahomes falls short of Brady’s marks…However, that’s not entirely the point.  It’s so rare that we even get to see someone in pursuit of this sort of greatness.  Maybe it’s easier to overlook because Brady just retired but, every NFL fan should try to watch as much of Patrick Mahomes as they can because what he is doing is SPECIAL! 

Mahomes is chasing history and a Super Bowl Title this season would give him a real shot at becoming only the 2nd quarterback ever with SIX Conference Titles and FIVE RINGS!  To achieve that, he would need to 2 more Super Bowl victories AFTER repeating as champs this season.  If we assume he can maintain a high level of play through age 38, that would give him a decade to do so.  It’s why picking up a 3rd ring, combined with the chance to complete a historic back to back run, raises the stakes so much this season! 

Can I tell the truth?...This shit DO come with Trophies!

*As the staring quarterback, excludes Jimmy Garoppolo’s two titles backing up Tom Brady with the Patriots

#2 – Anthony Richardson

From all time great to all time unknown…I’m fascinated by Anthony Richardson.  At 6’4” 244lbs with a 40 time of 4.43, athletically the comp is Cam Newton.  The concern is that the production just wasn’t there to justify Indianapolis taking Richardson with the 4th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft.  Both quarterbacks had 1 year as full time starters in the SEC prior to being selected. 

Newton authored perhaps the greatest performance by a quarterback in NCAA history, completing 66.1% of his passes for 2,854 yards with 30 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions while also rushing 264 times for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns!  He also carried an Auburn Tigers team, devoid of NFL talent, all the way to a NATIONAL TITLE!!!  Richardson, on the other hand, completed just 53.8% of his passes in his final season at Florida for 2,549 yards with 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.  Richardson was effective with his legs rushing 103 times for 654 yards and 9 touchdowns. 

The athletic ability that Richardson possesses is absolutely tantalizing and I’m sure the Colts are thrilled to have him in their building.  Now, the question will be whether or not he can develop enough as a passer to consistently succeed in the NFL.  I’m expecting a lot of growing pains in Indy this year but also some can’t miss highlights!  When you take into account the Colts decision to use the 4th pick on Anthony Richardson, the better comparison is really Josh Allen.  Allen was drafted 7th overall by the Buffalo Bills after completing just 56% of his passes, at a lower level of competition, playing for Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference.  Allen, like Richardson, was drafted for his combination of size (6’5” 233lbs) and athleticism with the hope that he could be developed into a high caliber NFL quarterback. 

Josh Allen is an outlier who has dramatically improved his accuracy as a passer while becoming a bruising runner who punishes tacklers.  In many ways, Allen has developed into a similar NFL quarterback as Cam Newton.  It took Allen a few years to develop into the player he is today, and the Colts will need to be patient with Richardson.  Regardless of whether Indianapolis can develop Richardson on a similar trajectory as Allen, it’s going to be fascinating to watch!

#3 – Buffalo Bills 12 Personnel

More Josh Allen talk!  For years I’ve been of the opinion that the Buffalo Bills have not invested enough in building their offense around Allen.  They brought in Stephon Diggs in advance of the 2020 season but, have always felt like they were one chess piece short, especially in the playoffs…Enter, Dalton Kincaid!  The Bills selected the 6’4” 240lb Utah Tight End with the 25th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

Pairing Kincaid with Dawson Knox creates significantly more formation flexibility for the Bills offense.  I expect to see heavy usage of 12 Personnel (1RB, 2 TEs) and Kincaid possesses enough athleticism to be utilized in a variety of ways, including being split out wide.  If Buffalo elects to, they could easily increase the size of their offensive playbook drastically, as they virtually never used two tight end sets last season. 

Bill O’Brien and the 2010/2011 New England Patriots took 12 personnel to a whole new level with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, perhaps setting unrealistic expectations for how dynamic the package can be, but with Josh Allen at QB the Bills could roll out one of the more unique offenses we have seen in the last 12 seasons.  Josh Allen was already one of the most difficult players in the league to defend and that task just became much harder heading into the 2023 NFL season! 

#4 – Bengals Big 3 WRs

Unlike the Buffalo Bills, the Cincinnati Bengals will not be relying on 12 personnel this season.  The Bengals have the most impressive trio of wide receivers in the league in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.  Combine those three with QB Joe Burrow, and Cincinnati is a real threat to lead the league in scoring this season!  

What I’m most interested in with this group, is the urgency with which they approach the 2023 season.  The Bengals won the 2021 AFC Title but fell to the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI.  They followed that campaign up with a 2022 AFC Championship Game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead.  After a couple of years knocking on the door of delivering the city its first Lombardi Trophy, the Bengals time to break through is now! 

It also may have to be…Joe Burrow is entering the last year of his rookie deal with a cap number of $11.5m before his fifth year option kicks in next year at $29.5m; he’s due a massive contract extension that should pay him more than $50m per season beginning in 2025.  Ja’Marr Chase is entering his third season and will become extension eligible in the 2024 offseason.  He could be in line for a deal around $30m per season.  Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both entering the last year of their deals.  My guess, Higgins is back in Cincinnati in 2024 on the franchise tag but, Boyd is likely headed elsewhere in free agency.  It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that 2023 is Higgins last season with the Bengals, as this roster is going to get very expense very fast!

The Bengals should be in position to contend for years with Joe Burrow at the helm but, the roster will have to be reset around him multiple times.  I want to see if this team can come into the 2023 season with a no mercy, Super Bowl or bust, mentality and lock down the #1 seed in the conference.  Although they have proven over the last couple of seasons that they can win playoff games in Kansas City and Buffalo, their clearest path to Las Vegas would be hosting the AFC Title Game at The Jungle!

#5 – Micah Parsons

In a league with so much focus and emphasis on offense, my favorite player to watch plays defense!  Micah Parsons absolutely DESTROYS NFL offensive game plans!  In his first two seasons in the league, he has racked up sack totals of 13 and 13.5, respectively.  He has forced three fumbles in each of those two seasons as well.  His impact goes far beyond the numbers though. 

Parsons is the sort of versatile defender that can’t be defined by a single position.  You can line him up as an edge rusher, have him patrol the middle of the field as a linebacker, or even drop him in coverage.  The Cowboys deployed Parsons as a pass rusher far less in his sophomore season than in his rookie campaign, and yet he still reached 13 sacks!  As an opposing quarterback your #1 priority pre-snap is identifying where number 11 has lined up and then trying to anticipate where he will be headed once the ball is snapped.  The constant chess match that Dallas can orchestrate with Parsons opens up opportunities for other playmakers on the talented Cowboys defense and forces teams into making mistakes. 

As he enters his 3rd NFL season, the former Penn State product should continue his rise to stardom.  As valuable as Dallas has found Parsons ability to handle different responsibilities on defense, his impact as a pass rusher is hard to overlook.  I expect that the Cowboys will find more pass rush opportunities for Parsons this season and that 18 sacks and a Defensive Player of the Year honor may be in his future.    

#6 – Falcons Youth Movement

Does anyone know what to expect from the Atlanta Falcons this season?  Probably not…what I find interesting with their team is how they are going about building their offense.  Recently, we have seen the trend of teams identify their quarterback AND THEN investing heavily in the skill positions around him.  The most notable examples are Cincinnati, Miami, and Philadelphia. 

The Bengals drafted Ja’Marr Chase 5th overall in 2021, one year after drafting Joe Burrow 1st overall in 2020.  Miami selected Tua Tagovailoa 5th overall in the 2020 draft and then added Jaylen Waddle with the 7th overall pick in 2021 and traded for Tyreek Hill in the 2022 offseason.  Philadelphia drafted Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft and saw enough from him to name him as the starter entering 2021.  They then drafted DeVonta Smith 10th overall in 2021 and traded for AJ Brown during the 2022 offseason.

Atlanta has basically done the opposite!  With an aging Matt Ryan, the Falcons passed on the opportunity to draft quarterbacks Justin Fields or Mac Jones with the 4th pick in the 2021 draft, instead selecting Florida TE Kyle Pitts.  In the 2022 draft, Atlanta passed on QB Kenny Pickett, drafting USC WR Drake London 8th overall.  This past offseason, the team selected RB Bijan Robinson with the 8th pick. Meanwhile, the Falcons moved on from Ryan after the 2021 season, failed to resurrect Marcus Mariota last year, and enter the 2023 season with an unknown at QB in 2022 3rd round pick Desmond Ridder.

The Falcons approach is essentially an experiment that the rest of the league can evaluate as it plays out in real time.  Is it the offensive weapons that make the quarterback or the quarterback that makes the offensive weapons?  My opinion, it’s a combination of both and if you don’t have the right QB then you are going to end up wasting a lot of capital (draft and monetary) on what essentially becomes window dressing.  The quarterback is the engine to an NFL offense and a car without an engine isn’t going very far.  Atlanta has taken a huge gamble!        

#7 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Saturday, January 14, 2023…The Jacksonville Jaguars overcame a 27-0 second quarter deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round of the 2022 NFL Playoffs…Anyone remember that?  It feels like a lot of people have forgotten… 

Jacksonville has a very good young roster and Doug Pederson is an excellent head coach.  Pederson didn’t just get lucky leading the Philadelphia Eagles, with Nick Foles at quarterback, to a Super Bowl LII victory over the New England Patriots.  Pederson knows how to get the most out of his players and is exactly the type of coach you would want with a young developing quarterback.  In his first year with Pederson as HC, Trevor Lawrence improved considerably.  His completion percentage rose from 59.6% to 66.3%, his touchdown passes increased from 12 to 25, and his interceptions dropped from 17 to 8.  Some of that is learning from experience but, Pederson’s influence cannot be ignored.  Now, with the addition of WR Calvin Ridley, Lawrence is primed for a breakout year in 2023!

On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars are not getting the attention they deserve either.  The Jags finished last season 12th in total points allowed and have invested some serious draft capital on defense.  Linebacker Josh Allen was selected 7th overall in 2019 and has 27.5 sacks across 57 career games played (side note, the Jags pick made back to back years where the 7th overall pick in the draft was a player named Josh Allen – that has to be valuable trivia knowledge – you’re welcome!).  In the 2022 draft, the Jaguars selected Defensive End Travon Walker 1st overall and Linebacker Devin Lloyd 27th overall.  They also used a 2nd round pick on Conerback Tyson Campbell in 2021.  Continued growth from their young players could see Jacksonville’s defense vault into the top 8 this year.

With Jacksonville on the rise and the AFC South in a period of transition (rookie QBs in Houston & Indianapolis; Tennessee still trying to rebuild their offense post Corey Davis & AJ Brown departures) the Jaguars should be hosting an AFC Wild Card game again this season.  I still have Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Buffalo a cut above the rest in the AFC, but the Jags should very much be in the mix as a dark horse to emerge from the pack, outside of that group.

#8 – Aidan Hutchinson

Moving on from the Jaguars to the man they passed on with the #1 overall pick in 2022.  Michigan’s Aidan Hutchison was selected #2 overall by the Detroit Lions and the 6’7” 265lb defensive end made quite the impression in his rookie season!  Hutchinson finished the year with 52 tackles, 9.5 sacks, and THREE INTERCEPTIONS!  That’s right, a defensive end had more interceptions than Defensive Rookie of the Year, Cornerback, Sauce Gardner! 

Similarly, to how the Cowboys value Parsons versatility, the Lions are not afraid to drop Hutchison into coverage.  It’s a tactic they can implement to keep the opposing offense guessing, and trick quarterbacks into making bad decisions, as you don’t expect to see a defensive end with Hutchinson’s size anywhere but around the line of scrimmage.  When he is around the line, he has demonstrated an ability to set the edge and get off blocks when defending the run, as well as an ability to get into the backfield and terrorize quarterbacks!  The combination of those skillsets makes him the queen on the chessboard for the Detroit Lions defense. His continued development, and how Detroit utilizes him, should be fun to watch in 2023!

#9 – Chargers MONSTARS Line Up

The Los Angeles Chargers might not have the size at WR to compete in the NBA but, they are going to have a height and reach advantage against every NFL defense they go up against!  Los Angeles already had the 6’2” Keenan Allen, 6’4” Mike Williams, 6’1” Joshua Palmer, and 6’3” TE Gerald Everett, however, they decided that wasn’t enough size!  They went and used their first round pick on 6’4” TCU WR Quentin Johnston. 

Typically, teams like to employ a tall wide receiver, with speed, at the X position on the outside, a smaller quicker player in the slot, and a burner they can send in motion at the Z.  The X lines up on the line of scrimmage and needs to be strong enough to get off jams at the line.  It’s also the position that is split out the widest and requires players who can run go routes down the sideline and high point 50/50 balls (ex: Randy Moss).  The slot position typically lines up inside and off of the line of scrimmage.  Playing the slot requires short area quickness to run routes in the middle of the field (ex: Wes Welker).  The Z position is the other outside receiver position but, unlike the X, lines up off of the line of scrimmage.  Since the Z lines up off of the line of scrimmage, those players are much harder for cornerbacks to jam at the line.  Typically, the ideal Z possess top end speed, even if it’s at the expense of size (ex: Deshaun Jackson).  

The Chargers group profile primarily as X receivers who are able to succeed in the Z position due to their size advantage over many of the cornerbacks that they will go up against.  We’ll likely see a rotation of their top 4 WRs at those two spots.  The slot position is going to be interesting to watch.  The Chargers drafted Johnston’s TCU teammate, Derius Davis, to fill that role and RB Austin Ekeler will be heavily relied on to run some of those routes as well (targeted 127 times in 2022).

The Chargers leaning in heavily on size is a bit of a zig when the rest of the league zags.  While every team would love to have a big X receiver, they also tend to build their offenses around more balanced skillsets.  Justin Herbert should be throwing a lot more deep balls this year and giving his big wide receivers chances to elevate and make plays. 

Being able to send out a non-traditional lineup in the redzone could cause nightmares for defenses as well.  This is what I’m most interested in seeing! If Allen, Williams, and Johnston are all on the field at the same time, inside the 15 yard line, good luck…“covering” them may not be enough if Herbert is able to throw the ball over the heads of defenders and pinpoint it where only his receivers can catch it. 

I’m also going to be watching closely to see how defenses approach playing the Chargers this season.  The trend across the league the last couple of seasons has been to guard against giving up the big play, forcing teams to take shorter gains, run more plays, and allowing the defense the opportunity to clamp down in the red zone when there is less field to cover.  If teams are unable to prevent touchdowns when Los Angeles enters the red zone, they may have to become more aggressive earlier on in possessions and gamble on blitzing Herbert to try to get stops and force punts.

Lastly, if the receiver size isn’t enough of a headache for defensive coordinators, add in the fact that Herbert is 6’6” 236lbs, and a threat to run.  An early season rib injury seriously limited this element of his game in 2022 but, in the two previous seasons he had a combined 8 rushing touchdowns.  The 2023 Los Angeles Chargers offense just might be the NFL’s MONSTARS!

BONUS! – Aaron Rodgers 

Aaron Rodgers is must watch this season for a couple of reasons.  For starters, after 18 years in Green Bay, Rodgers is now a New York Jet.  How he transitions to a new team is going to be interesting.  Both Tom Brady in Tampa Bay (2020) and Peyton Manning in Denver (2012) got off to relatively slow starts trying to mesh what the veteran quarterbacks did well with the offensive systems their new teams previously had in place. 

Tampa found themselves at 7-5 that season, after a loss to Kansas City, but then reeled off 8 straight wins including Super Bowl LV.  Denver hit their stride a little quicker.  Sitting at 2-3 after a loss to New England, the Broncos won all their remaining 11 regular season games to finish 13-3, before falling in the divisional round of the playoffs to the Baltimore Ravens.  How quickly Rodgers and the Jets can get on the same page may make or break their season.  New York has a very difficult six game stretch to open the season leading into their bye week (BUF, @DAL, NWE, KC, @DEN, PHI). Fortunately for the Jets, four of those games are at home, including both contests against last season’s Super Bowl combatants.

The other thing to watch with Rodgers is where is he is in his career arc?  When Brady went to Tampa it was off of a down season, at age 42, and the questions about how much he had left were rampant.  In Brady’s case, it turned out that he had plenty left in the tank and that his 2019 season was more the result of a depleted roster around him than signs of his decline.  There are some parallels with where Rodgers is now with where Brady was entering the 2020 season.  Rodgers won back to back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021 but had an uninspiring 2022 season with just 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  It was the most interceptions Rodgers had thrown in a season since he had 13 in 2008, his first year as the starter in Green Bay.  Entering a season in which he will turn 40, is Rodgers about to have a bounce back year with Gang Green or have we seen the last of the QBs MVP caliber play?  

Started From The Bottom, Now We’re Here…

We’re a little over a month away from the start of the 2023-2024 NHL season and I believe the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to win the Stanley Cup!  I KNOW, I KNOW…1967…Can’t beat Boston…not built for the playoffs…WE WANT FLORID-Ahhhhhh shit (checks notes - see 2023 Florida Panthers series)…Let me explain but, before I do, let’s look at how we got here.

On April 10, 2016 the Maple Leafs left the ice in Newark, NJ after a 5-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils.  The game marked the season finale for the Leafs and the result was one that had become all too familiar.  The team closed the season losing seven of nine and finished dead last in the NHL standings with just 29 wins and 69 points.  The franchise had hit ROCK BOTTOM.  In the last 11 seasons the team had qualified for the playoffs just once, a 2013 appearance made infamous by the epic Game 7 first round collapse against the Boston Bruins (BERGERON!!! BERGERON!!!)  

Starting from the bottom has a silver lining though, you can only go up from there.  Prior to the 2015-2016 season, the team had already begun the process of slowing rebuilding through the draft.  With the 5th overall pick in 2012 they added defenseman Morgan Rielly.  At 8th overall in 2014 they added forward William Nylander.  In the 2015 draft, the organization grabbed two-way standout winger Mitch Marner with the 4th pick.  In the aftermath of the 2015-2016 season, all eyes were on the NHL draft lottery.  The Maple Leafs’ last place finish gave them the top odds at the number 1 pick, however, those odds were still just 20%...

On April 30, 2016 the ping pong balls bounced north of the boarder and the fortunes of the franchise changed! Canada’s most populous city was awarded the #1 pick in the 2016 NHL entry draft!  It was the first time Toronto had the number one pick since 1985 when the team selected Wendel Clark.  Just under two months later, on June 24th, the Toronto Maple Leafs selected center Austin Matthews to open the NHL draft and EVERYTHING changed!

Matthews exploded onto the scene and took home rookie of the year honors, leading the Leafs in scoring with 40 goals and 29 assists for 69 points…Sixty Nine points, the same total that the Maple Leafs team had finished with in the season prior to Matthews arrival...Things had changed.  The 2016-2017 team finished with a 40-27-15 record for 95 points and qualified for the playoffs.  In the seven years that Matthews has been in Toronto, the team has reached the playoffs each season except for the Covid disrupted 2019-2020 season.  That year saw the team fall in the best of five “qualifying” round of the one-off 24 team tournament to award the Stanley Cup.  

While Matthews was establishing himself as one of the top five centers in the league, his fellow members of Toronto’s youth moment blossomed as well.  Rielly established himself as the teams number one defensemen and Nylander and Marner established themselves as consistent 30 goal threats.  The young core that the team had built through the draft also allowed them to look for reinforcements from outside of the organization. 

In the summer of 2018, Toronto out maneuvered the rival Boston Bruins to sign star free agent center John Tavares! The signing was a homecoming for Tavares however, it was about much more than nostalgia.  With the young core that president Brendan Shanahan and general manager Kyle Dubas had established, there was reason to believe that Tavares could be the missing piece to put the team over the top. 

The Leafs teams of the “Core 4” era (Matthews, Tavares, Marner, & Nylander) have largely lived up to expectations in the regular season but, have come up short in the playoffs.  Last season, the team finally broke through with their first playoff series victory.  In taking down the three-time reigning Eastern Conference Champion Tampa Bay Lightning, the Maple Leafs demonstrated a significant step forward in their growth as a team. 

Tampa Bay had done it all!  They won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021 before falling in the final to the Western Conference Champion Colorado Avalanche in 2022.  The Leafs emerging victorious after six hard fought games with a legitimate championship caliber team was no small feat.  Unfortunately for the city of Toronto, the team failed to build off that victory and bowed out of the second round in five games to the physically imposing, eventual Eastern Conference Champion, Florida Panthers…

That brings us to this this offseason and the major changes the organization has made.  Brad Treliving replaced Kyle Dubas as general manager and quickly went to work reimaging the roster.  While the team lost a key contributor in 2023 deadline acquisition, center Ryan O'Reilly, Treliving added forwards Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi who both bring a coveted mix of grit and skill.  The team also made a significant acquisition on the backend, signing puck moving defenseman John Klingberg. 

For years there has been a perception that the Leafs are too reliant on offense and haven’t invested enough in defense and goaltending to win the Cup.  That perception has been a reality to varying degrees over the past five seasons however, it’s no longer the case.  In the 2022-2023 season, Toronto finally found their answer between the pipes in Ilya Samsonov and the team finished 5th overall in goals against during the regular season.  The team’s five game defeat at the hands of the Panthers was tightly contested throughout, featuring three 3-2 losses, two of which came in overtime.  Losing Samsonov to injury early in Game 3 didn’t help…The reality is that Toronto was closer to winning the Stanley Cup than a five game second round defeat looks on paper.

Thanks to the offseason addtions, the Maple Leafs are finally in position to take the final step and climb to the mountain top of the NHL.  They enter the 2023-2024 season with even more depth and firepower than they have ever had on offense.  The Core 4 is now supplement with additional toughness and finishing ability in the form of Bertuzzi and Domi, the exact type of players the team needed in their series with Florida!  Bertuzzi was one of Boston’s best players against the Panthers, constantly creating havoc in front of the net and displaying a knack for finishing in close quarters.  Top prospect, left wing Matthew Knies, made an impact in limited action last year and should grow into a larger role in his first full season in the NHL as well. 

On the backend, Klingberg fills a very specific hole, a puck moving defenseman who can quickly transition play from the defensive end into an offensive attack on the rush in the matter of seconds!  He also adds a new dynamic to the Toronto powerplay.  More important than his own ability to score is the attention he will demand at the blue line. Drawing penalty killers out higher will open up passing lanes and space down low for the Leafs skilled forwards to work. 

Treliving has put the final pieces of the puzzle in place.  The Toronto Maple Leafs will enter the 2023-2024 season with the most complete team in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire NHL.  THIS IS THE YEAR!  Tampa Bay has had to peel key pieces off their roster each of the last four seasons as players have come due for raises in a time of a virtually flat salary cap.  Boston went all in last season and, after the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, is facing a bridge year before a possible return to true contention. Florida should remain in the mix; however, their run was fueled in large part by an unbelievable string of games by goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky that can’t be expected again.  The Buffalo Sabres are a team on the rise but are not yet in a position to close the gap on Toronto. 

The Maple Leafs should be the class of the Atlantic division this season and, while it won’t be easy, should be expected to advance to the Eastern Conference Final.  When they get there, the most likely opponent has to be the young New Jersey Devils.  The Carolina Hurricanes will be in the mix as well and the Pittsburgh Penguins, having added Erik Karlsson, can’t be ruled out either.  Regardless of who it is, the Leafs, with a top six featuring Matthews, Marner, Bertuzzi, Tavares, Nylander, & Domi, should be favored.   All the firepower upfront, coming off a season in which Toronto found their defensive identity, should be the difference.  Both in the Eastern Conference and in a potential Stanley Cup Final with the best the west has to offer!

Now we’re here…about 6 weeks away from the start of what I believe will be a HISTORIC season! The TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS will win the STANLEY CUP!!! 

Bear Market? The Boston Bruins Future Might Be Trending Better Than Expected…

The sky is falling in Boston!!!  Or at least, that’s what some people would have you believe…The Boston Bruins went ALL IN on the 2022-2023 season, set NHL records for wins (65) and points (135), but came up short of winning the franchise’s seventh Stanley Cup.  The team leveraged salary cap loop holes such as performance bonuses and long-term injured reserve to constructed one of the most talented rosters the league had seen in the salary cap era.  The organization understandably threw everything they had at one last run with Captain Patrice Bergeron, but going all in the way the Bruins did comes at a cost and now that bill is coming due!

Centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci both announced their retirements this offseason however, they will still show up on the team’s cap sheet for the upcoming season.  The bonus overages from their last contracts, totaling $4.5 million, count against the team’s 2023-2024 salary cap.  Combine that with raises for David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha, Trent Frederic, and Jeremy Swayman and the team was backed into a corner against the “flat cap” of the Covid era. 

As the cap hits stacked up like a losing game of Tetris, the Bruins chose to shed Taylor Hall’s contract, sending the highly skilled forward to Chicago.  They also watched short lived fan favorite Tyler Bertuzzi walk out the door and sign with the rival Toronto Maple Leafs.  In addition to the losses on the wing, the team is without a true number one center and the sentiment amongst much of the fan base is that all is lost, but is it?

The Current Roster

There’s no doubt that the Bruins are heading into a challenging bridge season; however, there is a very real pathway back to Stanley Cup contention.  It starts with the best winger in the game in David Pastrnak, fresh off a 61 goal campaign, and do it all defender, Charlie McAvoy, who continues to expand his offensive game while physically punishing opponents all over the ice!  Pastrnak is 27 and McAvoy is 25, both are signed long term.  Those are two ABSOLUTE cornerstones to build a cup team around! 

Looking ahead to this coming season, the team will rely heavily on some other young players entering their primes. Jake DeBrusk and Pavel Zacha are both 26, while Trent Frederic and newly signed Morgan Geekie are 25 years old.  DeBrusk and Zacha have established themselves as sold top 6 forwards and consistent point producers.  Frederic and Geekie are established third liners with the potential and opportunity to continue to grow their games this season.  At 26 years old, Brando Carlo is a sold stay at home defender and, at 24 years old, Jeremy Swayman is a potential franchise goaltender in the making.   

The roster also features some key veterans led by possible captain, Brad Marchand, and consistent two way center Charlie Coyle.  The backend is bolstered by Norris Trophy voter attention getter, Hampus Lindholm (finished 4th in 2023), and reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Linus Ullmark! 

Filling out the roster around this group is where General Manager Don Sweeney, really got creative.  Upfront, he brought back one of the most popular Bruins of all time in Milan Lucic, and added James van Riemsdyk, Patrick Brown, and Jesper Boqvist.  On the backend, he signed D-Man Kevin Shattenkirk.  What is important about these signings is that they are all around $1m AAV or less.  This means that any of these contracts can be fully buried in the AHL.  By filling out the roster in this way, Sweeney has provided veteran contributors to supplement his team’s core, while allowing opportunity for young players to break into the league, if they prove ready!

Prospects To Watch

Despite the narrative that the Bruins do not have a deep prospect pool, to which there is some truth, they still have some interesting names to watch.  Fabian Lysell is probably the most well known of the group. The highly skilled right winger from Sweden was drafted 21st overall in the 2021 draft.  At just 20 years old, he completed his first AHL season with 14 goals and 23 assists for 37 points in 54 games.  A bit undersized at 5’10” and around 170lbs, Lysell might benefit from another year in the AHL, although his offensive skillset might be too tempting for the Bruins to not at least get a look at him in a Boston uniform. 

Fellow first year Providence Bruin, LW Georgi Merkulov, is an undrafted Russian known for his shot.  At 22 years old, he put together a 24-31-55 AHL campaign over 67 games.  At 5’11” and 180lbs he has the necessary size to compete in the game’s top league so I expect to see Merkulov in Boston at some point during this upcoming season.  Whether or not he sticks around with the big club will likely depend on his commitment and attention to detail on the defensive end of the ice.  

Shifting to the center position, there’s three names to watch.  John Beecher, Matthew Poitras, and Brett Harrison.  Each player brings a different style and skillset.  Beecher is perhaps the most well-known of the three, drafted 30th overall in 2019.  Beecher’s game is defined by speed and back checking ability, while his offensive game has been slower to develop.  In his first full season in the AHL this past year, he put up a 9-14-23 line in 61 games.  Beecher has great size at 6’3” and 200lbs and could be ready to jump to the NHL as a 4th line center.  Looking ahead, he should be expected to develop into a 3rd line pivot as he progresses.  Beecher’s ceiling beyond that will be determined by how much his offensive game develops, but the size and speed combination is hard to ignore.

Poitras and Harrison, on the other hand, are NOT lacking offensive skill!  Both players spent last season in the Canadian Junior’s Ontario Hockey League.  Poitras, the team’s 2nd round pick in the 2022 draft, is the more traditional playmaking pivot.  In 63 games for the Guelph Storm he put up a 16-79-95 stat line.  At 5’11”, and now likely north of 180lbs, Poitras has enough size to standup to the physicality of the NHL game and could make a push for a roster spot in Boston during next month’s training camp.   

Harrison earned a reputation as a snipper last season where he split time between the Oshawa Generals and the Windsor Spitfires.  Across 57 games he lit the lamp 34 times and picked up 35 assists for good measure.  At 6’2” and around 190lbs, Harrison already has an NHL caliber frame and could look to push for a roster spot as well.  Given his prowess as a shooter, he may find his first NHL opportunities on the wing. 

On defense, the Bruins have one prospect who is going to garner a fair amount of attention this season, Mason Lohrei.  He signed with the Bruins after his sophomore season at Ohio State and stands a towering 6’4” while possessing above average puck handling abilities.  I don’t expect him to make the jump to the NHL this season, but he’s certainly a name to watch!

Lines For 2023-2024

The Bruins could have some tough lineup decisions to make right out the gate, if some of their young players have strong showings in camp.  Here’s what the veteran group in front of them may look like:  

Forwards

Marchand – Zacha – Pastrnak

Frederic – Coyle – DeBrusk

van Riemsdyk – Geekie – Lauko

Lucic – Boqvist – Brown

Defensemen

Grzelcyk – McAvoy

Lindholm – Carlo

Forbort – Shattenkirk

Goalies

Ullmark

Swayman

Expectations

While the Boston Bruins will lack scoring depth upfront, their defense and goaltending talent & depth is ELITE!  With McAvoy and Lindholm the Bruins not only have two bona fide #1 defensemen, they have two of the top 15 D-Men in the league!  And in net, it’s hard to find a better combination than Ullmark and Swayman!  The team’s strength being built from the goal line out should keep the Bruins in most of the games they play this season. I fully expect the team to remain in the wild card hunt throughout the year.  Whether or not they can grab a playoff spot, while competing in the stacked Atlantic division, will likely come down to how much production they can extract from their top six forwards. 

Pastrnak, Marchand, & DeBrusk are, for the most part, resuming roles they have held previously.  Zacha proved ready for a top 6 role last season, and while limited, spent enough time at center to expect he will be up to the task of patrolling the middle of the ice full time.  Coyle and Frederic are the biggest question marks amongst this group; Ironic given that Coyle is one the team’s most consistent performers.  

Coyle possess great size and has always shown glimpses of the skill needed to be a top line center, but the offensive zone production has never reached near that level.  To be fair to Coyle, he’s rarely had the opportunity to consistently skate a top 6 role since his early days in Minnesota. If he can jump from his mid 40’s point totals of the last two seasons, up to the mid 50’s, the Bruins can consider his bridge season a success.  Frederic is the wildcard of the group.  He had a breakout year last season totaling 17 goals and 31 points.  Can he continue to build on that and score 20-23 this year?  The answer to that question might be the difference between making the playoffs or just missing out. 

With the Bruins’ reliance on their elite defense and goaltending, I expect the team to finish somewhere around 43 wins and 93 points.  Likely right on the line of qualification for the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.    

Returning to Contention

For years we have heard talk about “the Chara window” and then “the Bergeron window”, and watched the Bruins rightly sacrifice future draft capital to attempt to maximize the careers of their former stars.  Now it’s time to look at this team through the lens of a “Pastrnak & McAvoy” window. 

Don Sweeney will likely explore the trade market for a top 6 center, whose addition, could more appropriately slot the team’s forwards.  However, depending on the cost, the Bruins might be better off riding out this bridge season and looking to make their splash in free agency. 

Heading into next summer Boston should be poised to vault back into Stanley Cup contention.  The $4.5m in bonus overages, that the team is currently carrying like an anchor around their neck, will come off the books and the salary cap is expected to rise by at least $4m for the 2024-2025 season.  The team will have to re-up DeBrusk at a substantial raise from his current $4m (likely around $7m AAV) but Grzelcyk & Forbort’s combine $6.69m will come off the books as well.   Boston will easily have the cap flexibility needed to target a top line center! 

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews, as of now, is the clear top prize scheduled to hit the free agent market in July 2024.  If he inks an extension between now and then, that title will go to either top line pivots Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets or Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames, as both are expected to hit the market.  Even if Boston fails to land any of these three, the cap flexibility that they will have created will allow them to explore other options on the trade market, without having to sacrifice a core piece from the roster.  Sweeney’s approach to this past offseason, as painful as it’s been, has positioned the team to quickly ascend back to the league’s upper echelon of cup contenders in the near future!

Penn to Paper: ESPN BETs Big!

On August 8, 2023, ESPN rolled the dice and announced a new licensing agreement with Penn Entertainment. As part of the agreement, Penn will rebrand their existing sportsbook from Barstool Sportsbook to ESPN BET.  Under the terms of the deal Penn will pay ESPN $1.5 billion over 10 years, but the new pact comes with real risk for the Worldwide Leader.  Unlike Barstool Sports, a significant attribute of ESPN’s brand is trustworthy reporting.  If the company’s credibility comes into question, it could undermine both their new venture and a core component of their current business model. 

ESPN’s move into gambling is not the first high profile example of the conflicts of interest that develop when the worlds of sports reporting and sports betting collide.  A couple of months ago, The Athletic’s Shams Charania found himself at the center of a gambling controversy surrounding the NBA Draft.  Shams is an NBA Insider who is often breaks many of the association’s biggest stories.  He also happens to be a paid FanDuel Partner and co-host of “Run It Back” on FanDuel TV.  FanDuel, like rival DraftKings, was built on fantasy sports, but became a major player in the online sportsbook space once sports betting legalization began to take hold in the United States during 2018. 

On June 22, 2023, a little less than eight hours before the NBA draft, Charania reported that Scoot Henderson was “gaining serious momentum at No. 2 with the Charlotte Hornets…”.  As outlined by Sports Illustrated, prior to the report, FanDuel had Brandon Miller at -650 odds and Henderson at +400 odds to be the second player off the board.  After the report, the odds flipped dramatically, making Henderson a -700 favorite and Miller a +400 underdog.  Ultimately, Charania’s reporting failed to align with the outcome of the draft. Miller went #2 to the Hornets and Scoot landed in Portland as the #3 pick. 

Shams’ reporting was very likely legitimate.  It’s not uncommon for there to be internal debate within a team’s front office right up to the deadline to make a decision; however, the potential opportunity to manipulate the betting public so that FanDuel could rack up substantial profits is obvious.  What if Charania had intentionally crafted a false report on the momentum behind Henderson to drive large amounts of losing bets on the number two pick?  That’s not an accusation, it’s a statement to highlight the real issue…The fact that the relationship between the two parties forces us to ASK the question. 

In the aftermath of the NBA Draft controversy, FanDuel claimed that the company, “is not privy to any news that Shams breaks on his platforms”.  Still, the questions were raised, and Shams’ reputation and character were called into question.  These are the treacherous, shark infested waters that ESPN has elected to wade into…

Every Adam Schefter or Adrian Wojnarowski tweet, that potentially influences movement of a point spread or money line, will now come under intense scrutiny.  The truly unfortunate part is that Schefter and Wojnarowski didn’t sign up for this.  ESPN has put them in an impossible position by adding an entirely new dynamic to their jobs.  Yes, their reporting could always move betting lines, but their employer was not previously in a position to benefit from those results. Prior to pursuing this opportunity, executives at ESPN and Disney undoubtedly discussed the public perception of venturing into sports betting and must have asked each other…Is this REALLY WORTH IT???  I believe IT IS!!!

Over the last decade, ESPN’s business has been shifting more and more towards becoming strictly a live rights company.  Studio shows like its flagship program, SportsCenter, just don’t draw viewers the way they use to.  The world has changed and how fans consume sports and sports media has changed significantly.  Sports talk and analysis has been largely democratized by platforms like YouTube and podcast networks.  Sports commentary in between the games has shifted to a market where viewers/listeners are able to choose between the personalities & styles they identify with, across followings large or small.  

The only properties that remain drivers to ESPN’s cable channel are live sporting events, for which, there’s simply no substitute.  The company’s reliance on live rights, and changing consumer preferences, are forcing ESPN to evolve.  Cord cutting and the dwindling draw of studio shows have resulted in declining revenue and a need to cut cost.

Recently, the company laid off several high-profile on-air personalities, including Jeff Van Gundy, Max Kellerman, Suzy Kolber, and Todd McShay.  Having taken steps to reduce expenses, the company will now look for new sources of revenue.  It’s been widely reported that ESPN is believed to be preparing the launch of a full direct to consumer streaming service, either to supplement or replace ESPN+.  Their current streaming service tends to feature lower profile games, with rating drivers like Monday Night Football, remaining exclusive to the cable channel.

If reducing cost and planning a move to a direct to consumer model is step one in ESPN’s evolution, leveraging the brand’s value, that has been built over 40+ years, is step two.  Even as fans no longer look to ESPN for talk shows and commentary in the way that they had in the past, those four letters still hold incredible name recognition and strong brand loyalty.  In looking to capitalize on their branding, the company may have placed the right bet with Penn!

Cultures and customs change over time. Sports betting is becoming a much larger part of the mainstream consumption of professional and collegiate sports.  As such, it’s a seemingly natural fit to integrate the brand most associated with the broadcast of big games with the viewers interaction with those games, through gambling.  Now is the time for ESPN to take its brand in a new direction!

Unlike Barstool, ESPN has a wide enough reach to potentially draw bettors from competing sportsbooks.  Battles will have to be waged with juggernauts, DraftKings & FanDuel, and Penn’s ability to deliver on the tech will be critical, but the partnership could commandeer significant market share. 

The potential conflict of interest concerns will continue to be raised and regulators may intervene at some point.  In the near future, ESPN might have to decide between being a SPORTS NEWS outlet or a SPORTS ENTERTAINMENT platform.  Quite Frankly, it’s probably a shift they should make proactively, as Stephen A Smith is already established as ESPN’s most marketable personality. Doing so could help prevent what currently feels like an inevitable controversy. If the company is slow to act, and its hand becomes forced, the entertainment route is really the only option. It’s not that the “insider” reporting model can’t be monetized, it’s simply nowhere near as lucrative as the opportunity that legalized sports betting presents…

Cash Rules Everything Around Me, C.R.E.A.M.…Get the money!  

Entertainment PAYS!

Just For Kicks: The NFL’s New Rule

With the kickoff of the 2023 NFL season just a month away, now is a perfect time to revisit a key rule change for the upcoming season.  During the offseason, the NFL implemented a new kickoff rule on a one-year trial basis.  Under the new regulations, any kickoff that is fair caught inside of the 25 yard line, will be treated as if it’s a touchback with the offense beginning their possession from the 25 yard line.  According to the league, the goal is to reduce concussions by reducing the kickoff return rate from 38% in 2022 to a projected 31% in 2023. 

Over the years the NFL has rightly taken steps to make an inherently violent game safer however, football will never be considered “safe”.  While great progress has been made in protecting defenseless players, the kickoff has remained a play that the NFL cannot seem to reduce the risk of injury below their desired level.  

Prior to the 2011 season, the NFL moved the kickoff from the 30 yard line to the 35, with the intent of making it easier for the kicking team to send ball into the end zone and produce more touchbacks.  In advance of the 2016 season, as returners continued to take the ball out of the end zone, the NFL moved kickoff touchbacks out from the 20 yard line to the 25. The change was made to further incentivize teams to take a knee when kicks traveled into their end zone. 

The previous rule changes have succeeded in bringing the return rate below 40%; however, some teams still look to leverage the rules in a way to gain a competitive advantage for their defenses.  With kickoffs coming from the 35 instead of the 30, rather than kick the ball into the end zone, a kicker can kick the ball shorter (to the 5-10 yard line) and with more height/hang time.  Doing so gives the coverage unit time to get down field to make a tackle.  Additionally, the change to bring touchbacks out to the 25 yard line instead of the 20, had the unintended consequence of encouraging teams to employee this strategy.  The cost/benefit analysis shifted from whether you believed your team could make a tackle inside the 20 to whether your coverage unit could put an end to a return inside the 25. 

NFL games are won and lost on the slimmest of margins and consistently forcing your opponent to start at their 22 yard line rather than the 25 is not insignificant in the eyes of the game’s best coaches.  More importantly, forcing a team to return a kick also forces them into having to protect the football.  Every kick return is an opportunity for the kicking team to force a turnover that could swing the outcome of a game.  The new rule looks to put an end to that strategy but, will it play out as the NFL believes? 

The biggest issue with the new rule is that it has largely removed the incentive for a kicking team to kick the ball into the end zone.  Under the previous rule, if a team wasn’t confident in their coverage unit, they would kick the ball into the end zone for a touchback.  Now, there is minimal risk for those teams to kick the ball shorter and force their opponent to make a fair catch.  Virtually every ball kicked inside the 10 yard line should be fair caught; attempting a return on those kicks would be overly aggressive under the new rule. 

For the kicking team, the best case scenario is a muff and an opportunity to recover a live ball, while the worst case scenario is likely a touchback.  If it plays out this way, the NFL will not have increased player safety at all. The 21 players not receiving the kick will still have to play the kickoff out as if it will be returned.  Although the most visible, highlight reel, impacts on a kickoff take place between the ball carrier and the tackler, collisions happen all over the field between those pursuing the returner and those blocking. 

Teams that place an extra emphasis on special teams, like the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, may look to implement another strategy to force returns and limit opponent field position; a modified deep squib kick.  The squib kick involves kicking the ball into the ground, causing multiple bounces, before it reaches a kick returner. 

Unlike an onside kick, squib kicks are sent much deeper than 10-15 yards down the field. They are traditionally used in late half/late game situations when a team wants to eliminate the possibility of a big return by forcing someone other than the receiving team’s primary kick returner to field the ball. 

The goal in these situations is not necessarily to pin the opponent deep inside their own 25 yard line; however, there has never been a previous incentive to try to use squib kicks for that purpose.  Historically, if a team was trying to pin their opponent deep, they would do so with a traditional kickoff. The new rule takes that approach off the table due to the treatment of a fair catch. 

A modified squib kick that sends the ball to the opponents 5-10 yard line could wreak havoc!  The fair catch rule would not apply as a ball that has hit the ground after being kicked (i.e. not a drop kick) cannot be fair caught. Also, kickoffs that do not reach the end zone are live balls that can be recovered by either team.  The receiving team would be forced to corral the bouncing ball and return it, creating turnover opportunities for the kicking team. 

The downside of this deep squib kick strategy is the difficulty in controlling where a squib kick ends up.  Kickers would need to achieve a certain level of precision in order to employ this strategy consistently. A squib kick that bounces out of bounds, prior to reaching the goal line, would result in a penalty which would set the opposing offense up at their own 40 yard line.  Despite the risk, keep an eye out for this approach throughout the 2023 NFL season, some teams will surely roll the dice!

Four Five Seconds From Wildin! The NFL Running Back Situation

The NFL’s running backs have had enough!  They are banding together to fight for better compensation…well sort of…Over the course of the last few weeks, some the NFL’s top running backs began speaking out about their frustrations with the perceived value of their position in the modern game.  The conversation was sparked right before NFL training camps opened with three of the league’s top running backs having been unable to secure long-term deals, after being hit with franchise tags in the offseason.

Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants, Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders, and Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys will all be forced to play under one year contracts for the 2023 season.  Additionally, former Minnesota Viking, Dalvin Cook, and former Cowboy, Ezekiel Elliott, remained free agents as of the end of July. 

Regarding the franchise tagged trio, the San Fransico 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey said, “This is criminal.  Three of the best players in the league, regardless of position”.  Tennessee Titans star running back, Derrick Henry stated, “At this point, just take the RB position out the game then…”. The Cleveland Browns’ Nick Chubb explained, “We’re kind of handcuffed with the situation.  The biggest thing is that we’re the only position that our production hurts us the most.  If we go out there and run for 2,000 yards with so many carries, the next year they’re going to say you’re probably worn down”. 

In response, Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers organized a zoom call of the league’s top running backs to discuss their depressed market.  Ultimately, the group concluded that there was not much they could do at this point in time…we were not about to have a mass running back holdout. 

The situation seemed to be cooling off until Indianapolis Colts owner, Jim Irsay, decided to weigh in on twitter….

“We have negotiated a CBA, that took years of effort and hard work and compromise in good faith by both sides…to say now that a specific player category wants another negotiation after the fact, is inappropriate.  Some agents are selling bad faith” 

That escalated things quickly!  To make matters worse, twenty four year old, 2021 rushing title holder, Jonathan Taylor is entering the last year of his rookie contract with the club.  The friction between the team and the player over contract negotiations boiled over and Taylor met with Irsay to formally request a trade.  Irsay responding by publicly stating that the team wouldn’t trade Taylor, but he wasn’t done talking…. He followed up with, what is likely to be the most bizarre quote of the NFL season,

“If I die tonight and Jonathan Taylor is out of the league, no one’s gonna miss us.  The league goes on…It doesn’t matter who come and who goes, and it’s a privilege to be a part of it.”

So, WE’RE ALL JUST GOING TO DIE, but the league will outlive us so none of this really matters?  WHAT???

I have no idea what Irsay thought he was accomplishing with that remark, but I can shed some light on how we got here.  The running back labor market is subject to the same supply and demand principles as every other position in the NFL.  Quarterbacks, for example, are in very high demand due to their impact on the game, but also the very limited supply of those considered skilled enough to lead a team to a Super Bowl title.  That dynamic has driven the top QB salaries above $50m per season.

Shifts in offensive philosophies over the past decade and half have placed more emphasis on the passing game, reducing the demand for high end talent at the running back position.  At the same time, defenses have adjusted to the new styles of offense and are more willing to sacrifice yards in the run game in order to prevent big plays down the field.  The counter measures employed by NFL defenses have made it easier to run the ball than it was in the past, increasing the supply of running backs capable of performing the role.  These market factors have also collided with the recent analytics movement in front offices.  

The reliance on analytics has led to the perception of the position that Nick Chubb detailed, as the yardage racks up, FOUR-FIVES become FOUR-SIXES and teams move on.  The result has been football operations departments preferring to draft younger, less expensive, running backs every few years rather than paying a premium for established players.  These dynamics also make running back holdouts largely ineffective as teams are most likely to respond by accelerating their timeline to replace the players.  

The good news for running backs is that the turnover at the position leads to more opportunity for young players to break into the league at the position.  A mid round draft pick can still make over $4m over the course of their rookie deal.  A top pick, like Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson (drafted 8th overall in 2023) will make almost $22m over the four years of his deal.  The bad news is that there is limited opportunity to secure a large second contract. 

Many of the league’s top backs are looking at going from a four year rookie deal that paid them between $4m to $10m in total, to hoping for a year or two of franchise tag money of around $10 to $12m per year.  Having such a low tag number, relative to other positions, further depresses the market for second contracts of running backs not deemed worthy of the franchise tag by their teams.  If the top running backs are getting $10m to $12m per season, and there are a significant number of rookie contracts paying more than $3m in their final season, there’s not much room to slot in the mid-level veteran players. 

The problem is that the franchise tag disproportionally impacts running backs negatively.  The reason being is that the franchise tag amounts are determined by the top five salaries at a given position, over the previous five years.  Due to the labor market dynamics outlined above, even the best running backs in the league are not able to secure contracts large enough to significantly move the franchise tag numbers.   Unfortunately, this will likely be the case through the 2030 season when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.  Any changes prior to that would likely require the players offering the league something, that the owners feel is valuable enough, to open negotiations to amend the CBA. 

Regardless of whether it takes place when the next CBA goes into effect in 2031, or on an accelerated timeline, what might the owners want in exchange for eliminating the franchise tag?  The answer is something SIGNIFICANT!  A large part of the reason that the franchise and transition tags still exist is that the owners viewed removing them as a non-starter during the last CBA negotiation, and it was too difficult to rally the majority of the NFLPA’s workforce behind opposing that deal point. 

The first challenge for the NFLPA will be unifying all their players around the fact that, while very few will receive a franchise tag during their careers, the continued existence of the tags prevents true free agency and drive player salaries down across the board, regardless of position.  If the players can align on the need to remove the tags from the CBA then they will have to determine what they are willing to give the owners in exchange.

A starting point might be the number of international games, which is one clause in the current CBA that was written with an intent to revisit it, prior to the expiration of the agreement.  Under the current terms the NFL will not play more than 10 regular season games abroad in a given year, until at least 2025.  Until the day comes that the NFL has established a team or teams in Europe, I expect the league to attempt to move towards a regular season that features 16 international games, with each of the 32 teams playing one game abroad each season. 

Would six more international games be enough of a concession from the players to eliminate the franchise tag?  Probably not. My guess is that the owners are going to fight to hold onto the franchise tag for as long as they can, and if they ever become willing to use it as a bargaining chip, it may only be in play for the crown jewel of their desired regular season NFL schedule…the addition of an 18th game to the calendar. 

Playing with Fire, the Phoenix Suns Real Gamble…

At the poker table of professional sports, ownership changes may be the biggest wild cards.  When a team changes hands you never know exactly what the ripple effect will be.  Sometimes new ownership groups come in, almost as silent investors, and do little to alter the day to day operations of the team.  In other instances, a new leadership regime looks to make their mark and establish a new direction.  When it comes to the Phoenix Suns, Mat Ishbia didn’t take long to indicate which category he would fall into.  As Ishbia was nearing the completion of his deal to buy the Suns, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that, “Ishbia is eager to start his involvement with basketball operations and is expected to be a hands-on owner in matters of team building.”  THAT WAS AN UNDERSTATEMENT!!!

Ishbia finalized his purchase, of a reported 57% stake in the Phoenix Suns at a $4 billion valuation, just days before the February 9, 2023 trade deadline.  Somewhere around 60 hours later, the team had traded for Kevin Durant!!!  In order to acquire the 13 time All-Star forward, Phoenix sent forward Mikal Bridges, guard Cam Johnson, FOUR first round picks (2023, 2025, 2027 & 2029), and one first round pick swap (2028) to the Brooklyn Nets.  The massive trade was the very definition of a blockbuster! The timing of deal’s completion, around 12 hours before the trade deadline, meant there would be at least a little time for the dust to settle in the desert.  After the acquisition, an injury limited KD to eight regular season games with the Suns, however, he entered the playoffs healthy and the team had a strong showing.  They defeated the Los Angeles Clippers in first round and pushed the eventual 2023 NBA Champion Denver Nuggets to six games.   

As the calendar turned to the offseason, Ishbia and his team went back to work on further reshaping the Suns.  In the aftermath of the loss to the Nuggets, the team fired head coach Monty Williams.  Williams had helped turn around the struggling franchise which had won an average of just 22 games per season in the four years leading up to his arrival in 2019.  In the four seasons that followed, with Williams at the helm, the team posted regular season records of 34-39, 51-21, 64-18, and 45-37.  His success with the Suns also stretched into the post season, having led the team to a Western Conference Title in 2021, before falling to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2021 NBA Finals.  Despite a proven track record, Ishbia felt the team needed a new voice.  Approximately three weeks later, on June 6, 2023, the Suns announced the hiring of Frank Vogel as head coach. 

After the coaching change, anyone thinking things would quiet down in the Valley was greatly mistaken.  On June 24th the Suns completed a deal with the Washington Wizards to bring in three time All-Star guard Bradley Beal!  In order to acquire Beal, Phoenix sent guards Chris Paul & Landry Shamet to DC and surrendered even more draft capital.  As part of the trade, Washington received four first round pick swaps (2024, 2026, 2028 & 2030) and SEVEN second round picks!!!  The deal established the foundation of a top heavy, but highly talented roster, featuring Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and center Deandre Ayton.  When free agency opened, the Suns did a great job of filling out their roster with veteran role players who could compliment their new core.  Their free agency class was highlighted by Eric Gordon, Damion Lee, Bol Bol, and Yuta Watanabe, who had played with Durant in Brooklyn. 

After the trades for Durant and Beal, it appeared that the Suns were out of moves that they could make on the trade market.  The team had virtually no draft capital left due to the “Seven Year Rule” which, was established to prohibit the trade of draft picks more than seven years in advance.  Appearances can be deceiving though, as the Suns unexpectedly shaped a couple of unusual NBA transactions.  The first was a trade with the Memphis Grizzlies that brought three second round picks to Phoenix in exchange for two first round pick swaps (2024 & 2030).  The second deal involved the Orlando Magic and resulted in the Suns acquiring three more second round picks in exchange for a first round pick swap in 2026. 

All three of the first round picks involved in these trades were already tied to pick swaps in the Beal trade.  Under these agreements, Washington will maintain the right to swap with Phoenix first, subsequently Memphis/Orlando will have the right to swap with the Suns for whichever pick the Suns have, either their own or Washington’s.  As a result, Phoenix will have the worst of the first round selections between the Suns/Wizards/Grizzlies in 2024 and 2030 and the worst first round pick of the Suns/Wizards/Magic in 2026. 

Ishbia’s background in the mortgage industry clearly influenced the trades with Memphis and Orlando.  In essence, these are draft capital financing agreements.  The Suns are borrowing draft capital, that they can use in trades to acquire players over the next few seasons, in the form of the six second round picks they acquired. Phoenix will pay that capital back, with interest, in the form of swapping into less favorable first round picks in the future.  The structure of these agreements represents a creative solution that will allow Phoenix some flexibility in roster building over the next couple of years; however, it comes at a very high cost.  Phoenix’s position in the first round of the draft for the next seven years is as follows:

• 2024 – Latest Pick of Phoenix/Washington/Memphis

• 2025 – NO PICK

• 2026 – Latest Pick of Phoenix/Washington/Orlando

• 2027 – NO PICK

• 2028 – Latest Pick of Phoenix/Washington

• 2029 – NO PICK

• 2030 – Latest Pick of Phoenix/Washington/Memphis

Mat Ishbia and the Phoenix Suns have redefined what it means to go ALL IN!!!  Now the only question is, will it be worth it?

The city of Phoenix is desperate for a championship.  It’s been 22 years since the Diamondbacks won their only World Series Title. The Arizona Cardinals have just one NFC Title to their name and have never won the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Arizona Coyotes are in disarray after nearly three decades in the desert, without so much as a Stanley Cup Final appearance.  The Suns have been the highlight of the region’s professional sports scene in recent years and have won three Western Conference Titles in their franchises history, but never an NBA Title.  Is 2024 or 2025 the year that drought ends? 

There is little doubt that Phoenix will enter the 2023-2024 NBA season as one of the favorites in the Western Conference, but the competition will be tough.  The Denver Nuggets are the reigning NBA Champions and feature a young core of players in or entering their primes.  Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, and Aaron Gordon will certainly have a say in how the Western Conference playoffs unfold. Additionally, the FOUR time champion Golden State Warriors, are still lurking with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and now Chris Paul! Furthermore, a Los Angeles Lakers team led by LeBron James & Anthony Davis cannot be dismissed either.  

The fate of the Suns may come down to the health and availability of Durant and Beal.  After missing the 2019-2020 season recovering from a torn Achilles tendon, KD has played in just 137 regular season games over the course of the last three seasons, an average of 46 per year.  Durant will be 35 years old when the season begins and it’s fair to wonder if he has entered a different stage in his career where he may not be able to return to being a 65+ game player. 

Beal has had trouble staying on the court as well.  After competing in all 82 of Washington’s games during the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons, he has played in only 57, 60, 40, and 50 games each of the last four years, an average of 52 games per season.  At just 30 years old, Beal is probably the better bet to find his way back to being a consistent night in and night out anchor for the Suns lineup.     

When you consider the injury history, and age in KD’s case, the true stakes of the gamble the Suns have made begin to come to light.  Can this team withstand the grind, and wear and tear, that it will need to in order to successfully navigate four playoff rounds?  What about three?  Perhaps this team is better suited for a run at the newly established NBA Cup, which requires playing a total of seven games to win, rather than four best of seven series.  Would a Western Conference Title or an NBA Cup be enough success to deem the gamble worth it in the eyes of the organization and their fans?  Only time will tell…

The seismic moves made by Phoenix are akin to something out of a sports movie, and I can’t wait to watch it play out. I understand why the Suns were as aggressive as they were in constructing this roster, when you have a title shot, YOU TAKE IT!!! (There was no way Adonis Creed was passing up a title fight with Pretty Ricky Conlan!). Players like Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal don’t become available very often, and when they do, there’s a long line of teams waiting to pounce on that sort of firepower. Unlike Ryan Coogler’s film though, there is no pre-written script to follow in the NBA. Decisions organizations make in team building come with risks, and in this case the real gamble the Suns are taking, is with Devin Booker. 

Booker is 26 years old and has five years remaining on his contract. The Suns had an option to build around their young star player, on his timeline, instead they pushed all their chips to the center of the table now.  Even if the best case scenario plays out for Phoenix, with Durant and Beal remaining healthy, the organization may have limited their championship window with their 26 year old star to the next two seasons.  As Durant ages out of a front-line role, the team will have very few tools at their disposal to add to another star to the roster.  No matter how you look at it, the Suns are playing with fire!    

Cold Product: The NHL in Arizona

Current Situation

Since the 1996 relocation of the original Winnipeg Jets, the NHL has maintained ice in the Arizona desert. That ice may now be wearing thin.  On May 16, 2023, Tempe, Arizona residents voted against a proposal to transform a vacant lot and former landfill into an entertainment district anchored by a new 16,000 seat arena.  The estimated $2.1 billion project would have been almost entirely privately funded; however, some residents opposed large property tax breaks that were included in the proposition. 

Additionally, the city of Phoenix had filed a lawsuit attempting to block the project due to the proximity of proposed residential units to Sky Harbor International Airport.  The city was concerned that the noise level resulting from flight paths would be unacceptable for residential zoning. 

The failed arena plans hit the Coyotes franchise especially hard, as the team was already nearing the completion of its first season without an NHL capacity rink.  Two years prior the city of Glendale had terminated the Coyotes lease to Gila River Arena following the conclusion of the 2021-2022 season.  A statement released by the city read in part that the decision was made, “With an increased focus on larger, more impactful events and uses of the city-owned arena.”  Forced to pivot, the team played their home games for 2022-2023 season at Arizona State University’s 5,000 seat Mullett Arena and plans to do so again in the upcoming season. 

NHL Commissioner, Gary Bettman, expressed his disappoint in the aftermath of the Tempe vote.  He had previously spoke with optimism about the proposal, seemingly expecting it to pass, stating that the new arena plans would result in the Coyotes never leaving Arizona. 

More recently, speaking at the Stanley Cup Final between the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers, Bettman said, “The Coyotes are exploring their options in the greater Phoenix area, and our hope is that one of those options being explored will come to fruition.”  He also went on to say that he is hopeful the league can avoid relocation noting, “We're in a better position to resist leaving than maybe we were 20 or 30 years ago.”  From the outside, the NHL’s commitment to the region may seem odd.  In order to understand the league’s position, we need to look back on both the history of the NHL and the franchise in Arizona.

History

The Phoenix Coyotes were formed at a time when the NHL was quickly expanding across the Sun Belt.  Over the course of three seasons from 1992 to 1994, the league welcomed four expansion teams in non-traditional hockey markets: San Jose Sharks (’92), Tampa Bay Lightning (’93), Florida Panthers (’94), and Mighty Ducks of Anaheim (’94).  Additionally, 1994 saw the Minnesota North Stars relocate to Texas as the Dallas Stars and the Hartford Whalers would become the Carolina Hurricanes just four years later. 

A quick look at a map of the US will reveal to anyone that the Dallas and Phoenix markets are key to establishing the NHL’s presence throughout much of the Sun Belt, connecting South Florida to Southern California.  The only glaring missing link being Atlanta (I’ll save that one for another time!).  All these Sun Belt teams have found enough success to establish these locations as viable NHL markets…So, what’s been going on in the Arizona desert?

Over the course of 27 years in the Phoenix metropolitan area, the now Arizona Coyotes, have not given residents much to cheer about.  In 26 seasons the team has qualified for the NHL Playoffs only nine times and lost in the first round in eight of those appearances.  The only post-season success the club has seen came during the 2012 playoffs. During that campaign the Coyotes defeated the Chicago Blackhawks and Nashville Predators before being eliminated by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings in the Western Conference Final.  

The last 23 years have been even bleaker, as four of the teams nine playoff appearances came during the club’s first four seasons in Phoenix.   While you can hardly call them glory days, the days of Jeremy Roenick, Keith Tkachuk, and Rick Tocchet are long gone.  Those early years were filled with excitement in the region, and solid attendance gave an indication of the promise the Valley of the Sun held for the NHL. 

Unfortunately, for both fans of the team and the league, the franchise has been plagued by financial and ownership instability throughout much of its existence.  The team’s current owner, Alex Meruelo, purchased the team in 2019 marking the SEVENTH ownership regime change in the relatively short franchise history.  With constant change at the top, the team has never been able to sustain a direction and build a consistent winner. 

As a result, the losses have piled up, both on the ice sheet and within the finance department’s spreadsheets.  Rock bottom hit in 2009 when the team went into bankruptcy and had to be bailed out by the NHL.  The league assumed and maintained control of the team until it was able to find a buyer in 2013, that was willing to keep the team in Arizona.  One more ownership change followed in 2014 before Meruelo’s eventual acquisition. 

A New Direction

In recent years, under Meruelo’s watch, the Coyotes have seemingly found a path towards long term success.  The franchise hired Bill Armstrong as General Manager in September of 2020 and committed to rebuilding the team’s prospect pool and adding draft capital.  Over the next three entry drafts, the Coyotes have each of their first round picks, ten second round picks, and seven third round picks.  The team has also seen significant development from some promising young players over the last couple of seasons, headlined by forwards Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse, and Matias Maccelli. 

In addition to finding direction on the ice, Meruelo had a clear direction he was pursuing off the ice as well.  In response to the Gila River Arena lease termination, he struck the agreement with ASU to temporarily host the team and invested somewhere between $20 million to $30 million to build out necessary facilities to support the move.  The team’s agreement with ASU is for three seasons and includes a team option for the 2025-2026 season.  With the team’s temporary home secured, Meruelo and Bettman campaigned to garner support for the Tempe Entertainment District arena project.  The development was to be the final brick in laying the groundwork for the Coyote’s long term future in Arizona.  Then the ballots came in…

Up to this point, Meruelo and Bettman’s interests had been aligned, however, you have to begin to wonder how much patience Meruelo has left.  Meruelo purchased the team as a distressed asset with a plan to turn the organization’s fortunes around; while terms of the deal were not disclosed it’s believed he acquired a 95% ownership stake for approximately $300 million.  All of his actions since then have indicated a long term vision to organically grow a fan base and increase revenues by delivering a winner on the ice.  It’s why he was willing to make a significant capital investment as part of the ASU agreement.  Absorbing short term losses to build towards sustained profitability can be a very sound strategy, provided there is a path to achieve it. 

In an interview in January, Coyotes CEO Xavier Gutierrez indicated that the team is losing north of $10 million annually.  In addition to the limited seating capacity at Mullett Arena, the Coyotes do not have the same opportunities to generate revenue from fans in attendance that an NHL caliber arena would provide.  The limited number of fans in attendance results in significantly less concessions revenue, which is then split with ASU.  The Coyotes do not split merchandise revenue but, again, the limited number of people through the gates each night limits sales.  The current situation is simply not sustainable for an NHL franchise! 

Phoenix is on the clock…Meruelo was willing to invest nearly $2 billion to build an arena in Tempe and the residents of the city stopped him.  Two years prior the city of Glendale told him that their arena could be put to better use than serving as host to an NHL team.  The Phoenix Suns appear to have no interest in leasing the Footprint Center to the Coyotes.  At a certain point, the organization needs to look to move on, especially when there is a long list of cities that would be lining up to welcome the NHL. 

The league is also beginning to face pressure from the players.  Executive Director of the NHL Players’ Association, Marty Walsh, is on record saying, “If we don’t have, in the near future, a new location, we have to have a serious conversation.  These players can’t continue to play in a college hockey arena as National Hockey League players. They just can’t do it.  It doesn’t look right; it doesn’t feel right.”  Bettman may still wish to be patient and find a solution in Arizona, but if there isn’t an agreement for a new arena soon, we may be headed towards a showdown between an owner pursuing relocation and a commissioner resistant to the idea. 

Ultimately, if it comes to that, Meruelo holds most of the cards at this high stakes table.  Bettman is employed by the owners, and it would be hard to believe that a significant majority of team owners wouldn’t support Meruelo if he were to formally pursue relocation of his franchise, given the circumstances.  I don’t believe the door is completely closed on Arizona yet; however, if there is not a clear path towards a new Arena by the end of the 2023-2024 season, there’s a very good chance that it may be the Coyotes last in the Valley.   

Relocation

If the team is forced to flee the desert, where might they land???

Wild Cards

Sacrament, CA | San Diego, CA | Portland, OR | Hartford, CT | Hamilton, ON, CAN – fun to think about, but none of these are going to happen!

Quebec City, QC, CAN

As an NHL fan, restoring the Quebec Nordiques is by far my favorite option but, it is also the least likely of the five detailed here.  A move to Quebec would likely require a sale of the team to a Canadian based ownership group for a variety of reasons.  I believe that Meruelo is committed to running a highly successful NHL club and that a sale is not under consideration at this time.  The biggest deterrent for Meruelo to retain ownership while taking his team north of the boarder would be the significantly higher tax rates compared to other potential destinations in the United States.  Despite having an NHL ready arena in the Videotron Centre, the return of the Nordiques will likely remain on hold until future NHL expansion.  

Salt Lake City, UT

A little over 20 years ago, Salt Lake hosted the world’s greatest winter sports athletes for the 2002 Winter Olympic Games, serving as the home to an NHL team would seem like a natural fit.  In recent years, Utah Jazz Owner, Ryan Smith, has expressed interest in bringing a team to the city.  Smith’s interest would not prevent Meruelo from bringing his team to town but, the market is probably too small for him to gamble on.  The Salt Lake City metropolitan area houses around 1.2 million residents and, while a team would likely draw support from the neighboring Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana, it seems like a better fit for an expansion franchise than one looking to quickly turnaround its finances. 

Kansas City, MO

At about double the size of the Salt Lake market, Kansas City cannot be dismissed.  The city has a brief NHL history with the Kansas City Scouts from 1974-1976 and the level of sports fandom in the region is on constant display with the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs.  Additionally, the city’s downtown features the NHL ready T Mobile Center.  While KC is certainly a viable market, it is only about half the size the Phoenix metro area, making it a better candidate for future expansion than for the relocation of Meruelo’s team.  

Atlanta, GA

It’s been a long time, long time, we shouldn’t of left you, left you……And if at first you don’t succeeeeed, dust yourself off and try again, you can dust it off and try again, try again!  Okay, I get it, this one is going to drive some people insane!  Atlanta is already 0 for 2 in the NHL, but it’s one of two markets available to Merulo that are larger than Phoenix (it also gave me an excuse to shoutout the late great Aaliyah!).  State Farm Arena is ready to welcome the NHL back to the same sheet that the Thrashers skated for 12 years.  There’s also been an interesting buzz in league circles about the return of the NHL to the Peach State, with the question being asked not if, but when?  

Houston, TX

Hockey in H-Town!  The city represents the 5th largest metropolitan area in the country, about 1.5x the size of the Phoenix market.  It also has an NHL ready building in the Toyota Center and has been a great home for the Rockets, Astros, and Texans.  As for hockey in the state of Texas, the success of the Stars cannot be overlooked.  Additionally, the city is located close enough to Dallas to form a natural rivalry with the Stars, yet far enough away that the team wouldn’t be trying to establish their new brand in Stars territory.  One potential hurdle here is that Houston Rockets Owner, Tilman Fertitta, also owns the Toyota Center.  A lease agreement could be worked out, but Fertitta has also expressed interest in owning a NHL team.  If Meruelo is not looking to sell, Ferititta could try to block a move by refusing to enter into a lease agreement, keeping Houston open for a potential expansion team under his ownership in the future.

Prediction – The NHL makes its return to The A in the 2024-2025 season!

Solving the NFL’s Gambling Problem

The days of legalized gambling on sports being restricted to places like Las Vegas are long gone! Since a May 2018 Supreme Court ruling gave individual states the authority to regulate gambling, over 70% of states in the US have legalized at least some form of sports betting.  The widespread legalization has taken a large economic driver from the Black Market to Wall Street, shinning a spotlight on activity that was previously hidden from the public eye.  The exponential increase in visibility has amplified the discussion around gambling at 345 Park Ave and resulted in a wave a recent suspensions of NFL players for violations of the NFL gambling policy. 

The 2023 NFL offseason has included nine player suspensions for gambling violations.  Most notable was the six game suspension of Detroit Lions top prospect, Jameson Williams.  The three-one-three wide-out’s punishment is the most high-profile gambling penalty levied by the league since former Atlanta Falcon, WR Calvin Ridley, was suspended indefinitely last offseason.  Ridley had taken a leave of absence from the team during the 2021 season to focus on his mental health and, in his time away, placed NFL bets over the course of a five day period.  Ridley acknowledged that he had placed the bets, which totaled $3,900 according to a report by Brett Smiley of Sports Handle. 

In the time since his suspension, Ridley was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars and reinstated by the league for the 2023 season.  While Ridley being away from the team at the time of his violation made his suspension unique, the suspension of Williams has raised many more questions about the NFL’s gambling policy.  Unlike Ridley, Williams was not suspended for betting on NFL games…he was suspended for placing bets on OTHER SPORTS while at a team facility. 

According to the NFL, “the gambling policy prohibits anyone in the NFL from engaging in any form of gambling in any club or league facility or venue, including the practice facility.”  Hold up, WHAT?  I’m sorry but, can someone from the league office explain to me how an NFL player placing a bet on an NBA or NHL game has any impact on the integrity of the National Football League? Furthermore, why it’s OK for an NFL player to place a bet on the Toronto Maple Leafs or Los Angeles Lakers from their couch but, doing so from the weight room is problematic???

The NFL has overly complicated its policies to its own detriment.  The complexity has given rise to discussion around the hypocrisy of the NFL for partnering with sportsbooks.  As a result, the league has been generating negative publicity centered around gambling, the very type of publicity its policies were put in place to prevent.  If it wasn’t for the poorly constructed rules, more of the focus would be on the fact that the gambling sponsorships that the NFL has secured are great for both the league and the players. 

Sportsbook sponsorships contribute to an increase in revenue that is split between the owners and the players, in accordance with the CBA.  The partnerships between the league and the sportsbooks also allow for the organizations to work together to identify violations of the NFL gambling policy, which should help ensure the integrity of the game. Unfortunately, the policies simply don’t make sense, the league needs to get out of its own way and simply the rules for everyone involved.

There is no debate worth having about whether or not the NFL needs to regulate gambling. The NFL ABSOLUTELY must protect the integrity of the game!  It is critical that consumers of the product have confidence in the legitimacy of outcomes however, there are much easier and less complicated ways to achieve that goal.  The NFL gambling policy should be as simple as, NFL personnel cannot place bets on NFL games, in a season in which, they were employed by any of the 32 NFL teams or the league office. 

A policy of this sort would be much easier for NFL personnel and the public to understand.  It would also extend the player exception for betting on other sports to all NFL personnel, while removing the restrictions on club and league facilities.  Currently, coaches and other league personnel are prohibited from betting on any sporting events.

Taking this approach would also close any loopholes regarding employment during a season, when players are regularly cut from rosters and join other teams days or weeks later.  If you collect a check from the league or an NFL team, you can’t bet on NFL games during that season, simple! 

The league office, NFL personnel, and the fans would certainly benefit from a clearer policy based on common sense. There’s still time for the NFL to correct the flaws in its gambling policy before the kickoff of the 2023 season.  A season which will build towards its Grand Finale on February 11, 2024 when Super Bowl LVIII is played…in Las Vegas!

The NBA Cup Is Happening!

Format

Last week, the NBA officially announced the format for the long awaited In-Season Tournament and it’s going to be AMAZING!  Teams have been designated into six groups of five, with three groups in each conference.  The previous year’s regular season standings were used as part of the group draw to achieve competitive balance. 

Play will commence about ten days into the regular season on Friday, November 3rd and over the course of the month, all 30 teams will play traditional regular season games.  Within their November schedules, teams will play their four group opponents on designated “Tournament Nights”.  These games will count towards both the regular season and group play NBA Cup standings. 

Group winners will be determined by record in games designated for group play.  The primary tiebreaker within a group will be head-to-head results, followed by cumulative score differential, and then total points scored.  Tiebreakers across groups will follow the same procedure apart from head-to-head results.  The winner of each group, along with one wildcard team from each conference, will advance to the knockout rounds. 

The knockout rounds feature single elimination games and begin with the two higher seeds in each conference hosting the two lower seeded teams in intraconference games.  The winners of those games, advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals which will be played in Las Vegas on Thursday, December 7th.  Games played during both the quarterfinals and semifinals will count toward the regular season standings, as these matchups will feature teams that would have played at least three times over the course of a traditional 82 game NBA schedule. 

The winners of the semifinal games will meet in Las Vegas, on Saturday, December 9th to determine the first ever NBA Cup Champion!  The championship game will result in an 83rd game, played by a representative from each conference, that will not count towards the regular season standings.  This approach ensures that each team will continue to visit each NBA city at least once per season and means that one pairing of East/West teams will meet three times prior to the start of the NBA Playoffs, rather than the traditional two meetings.

As the idea of an NBA In-Season Tournament was debated over the last few years, the biggest hurdle was finding the right balance between the new competition and the regular season.  The widely accepted consensus was that the NBA would have to reduce the 82 game regular season schedule to allow for the insertion of tournament games within an already packed calendar.  The solution that the NBA and the NBA Players Association found instead, is nearly perfect! 

Weaving the tournament into the fabric of the regular season schedule only required the addition of a single game and introduces urgency to the early part of the NBA schedule.  The format, and placement within the NBA calendar, should ramp up anticipation for the start of each season and deliver more high-level competition that both fans AND players will enjoy!

Stakes

NBA players love basketball, are extremely competitive, and want to play at the highest levels.  A common criticism of the In-Season Tournament has been, what are the stakes?  Perhaps it is a fair question on the surface but, most of these players want to win at everything they do.  Almost every team has stories of card games, board games, weightlifting challenges, or some other competition they have going on internally. 

A half decade ago the Boston Celtics ping pong games became somewhat of an urban legend in the city with New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman even coming through to take on Gordon Hayward!  Point being, I would be much more surprised with players having an indifferent attitude towards the competition than I would be with hearing stories from across the association about how much teams want to win the inaugural NBA Cup.  For anyone looking for evidence of how competitive the players are…remember the 2022 T’Wolves play-in tournament celebration?

The other aspect that has been raised around the stakes is the question of financial incentive for the players.  Each player on the winning team will receive $500,000.  It’s an amount that is very significant for an end of the bench player but, might not move the needle much for All-Star players making north of $40 million per season.  When you compare the financial incentives to those of winning the NBA Championship though, they are not that dissimilar. 

The NBA playoffs feature a pool of prize money that is awarded to each of the 16 teams that qualify based on a combination of seeding earned and how far they advance.  The 2023 NBA Champions Denver Nuggets received an estimated $7.8 million from the prize pool this past season.  If that money was to be split evenly amongst a 15 man roster, it would result in $520,000 being awarded to each player.  The actual allocation of the NBA playoff prize money is at the team’s discretion, but no matter how you distribute it, financial incentives are not the driving force behind NBA Title teams. The desire to win the championship is! 

The Larry O'Brien Trophy will remain the sport’s greatest prize, as it is presented in acknowledgement of a team earning the title of NBA Champions for a given season.  A goal that organizations have pursued since 11 teams took the court for the 1946-1947 season.  Traditions have to start somewhere, a fact that NBA Commissioner Adam Silver acknowledge in the face of uncertainty surrounding the new competition stating, "New traditions take time. But all throughout sports, we are seeing new innovations, and now is the time for this NBA In-Season Tournament."  It will take time to build a history associated with the NBA Cup however, as we watch the competition unfold, it should not take long for everyone to see that it holds meaning.

The First NBA Cup

Looking ahead to the inaugural edition of the tournament, the scheduling is excellent!  The Tournament Nights in November will all take place on Tuesdays and Fridays, creating a special event feel similar to that of an NFL Sunday, with multiple games underway at once and featured games nationally televised.  The NBA also wisely slotted these nights in between NFL game nights.  While the semifinals will go head-to-head with Thursday Night Football, they set up perfectly for the championship game.  The NBA Cup will be awarded on a Saturday night, unopposed by football, with the College Football Conference Championship games scheduled for the week prior. 

The implications of this new competition are fascinating.  For the first time in the history of the NBA we will see the league’s top teams compete in single elimination games!  Unlike a playoff series where significant adjustments and lineup decisions may take place game to game, coaches and players will be challenged to quickly find solutions on the fly.  The introduction of neutral site games as the tournament nears its conclusion adds an interesting dynamic as well, creating the possibility of raucous crowds with split allegiances.  The environments for those games should be ELECTRIC! 

Additionally, once the first NBA Cup has been won, we will be faced with two new possibilities.  The first is the concept of a “Double Champion”.  In the early years, we won’t have a historical precedence to compare to but, we may see a team win both the NBA Cup and the NBA Championship in the same season!  The second scenario would be even more captivating…the possibility that the NBA Finals could be a REMATCH of that seasons NBA Cup Finals!!! 

Imagine both teams vying for the sport’s ultimate prize, with one team pursuing what figures to be an elusive double championship season, while the other team is looking to avenge a Cup Finals defeat.  The potential storylines are endless…Get your popcorn ready, this is going to be fun!

Name / Names?

OK, if there is one thing I’m not exactly amped for, it’s the name or names…The trophy is being called the NBA Cup but, the official releases from the NBA still refer to the “In-Season Tournament” as well.  I always thought In-Season Tournament was just a placeholder until the details were finalized. 

My hope is that In-Season Tournament is just something that the league felt they needed to keep front and center in their marketing campaign for the first year. The goal in doing so would be to help educate viewers and draw attention to the fact that a new competition is being added to the calendar.  After year one, it needs to go!  In-Season Tournament feels about as clunky as renaming the playoffs as the After-Season Tournament.  Brand the entire competition as the NBA Cup Tournament or simply the NBA Cup. 

Also, the NBA Cup name probably needs to be rethought at some point as well.  It’s fine but, NBA Cup Champions and NBA Champions are too similar for my liking.  There are so many other options!  In working through all the details of the tournament and the CBA did they just forget to name this thing?  Commissioners Cup, Players Cup, Association Cup, World Cup (sorry, that one’s taken!), North American Cup, Naismith Cup…you get it. 

Future

The NBA Cup will likely evolve over time.  I expect to see changes made to the format over the years, just as we have seen with the NBA playoffs throughout history.  Feedback from fans, players, coaches, team execs, etc. will be considered but, the initial format is very well constructed and there are three core elements that I believe will stand the test of time. 

The first being group play games counting towards both the NBA Cup and the regular season standings.  Aside from how well this works with the schedule, it serves the purpose of integrating the NBA Cup into the season, rather than having it exist as an entirely separate entity.  NBA seasons will now see an NBA Cup Champion crowned, in addition to Eastern & Western Conference Champions, and ultimately an NBA Champion.

The second element that I believe is here to stay is the use of single elimination games in the knockout rounds.  The format significantly differentiates the tournament from the playoffs, which is very important to its success. 

And finally, the third element that I believe the NBA nailed is the use of a neutral site.  I’m not suggesting that the NBA Cup will grow to anywhere near the level of interest of the Super Bowl but, it creates a unique opportunity to allow the NBA world to descend on a single location for a championship weekend, which should be a fantastic experience for fans. 

While I expect the neutral site to remain, it will be interesting to see if the NBA Cup moves to other locations in the future.  Las Vegas feels like the perfect setting to host the early years of the event but, as the NBA seems destined to expand to the city in the not-too-distant future, the event may need to be moved to guarantee a neutral site. 

One possibility is that it remains in Vegas, just as the Super Bowl is always hosted in an NFL city, with the possibility of the host city’s team advancing to that stage.  Once there is an NBA franchise in Las Vegas, the tournament could also go on a Super Bowl like rotation between NBA cities like Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and San Francisco. Alternatively, the tournament could move to another full-time neutral site host city, such as San Diego where Stan Kroenke is building a new 16,000 seat arena.  

Lastly, one thing that cannot be ruled out, as the NBA looks to continue to grow its brand, is the idea of taking the tournament overseas to host cities in Europe such as London, Madrid, Paris, Rome, or Milan. If there is one thing we have learned about Adam Silver, it’s that he’s not afraid to explore new territory!

Dame’s Time

Halloween night 2012, Damian Lillard stepped on the NBA scene for the first time.  Making his debut with the Portland Trail Blazers, Dame delivered a 23 point and 11 assist performance in front of a sold-out Rose Garden.  When the final buzzer had sounded, the number 6 pick in the 2012 draft had helped lead his team to victory over the star-studded Los Angeles Lakers, who had received a combine 63 points from Kobe Bryant & Dwight Howard. 

Lillard would go on to play all 82 games of his rookie campaign, averaging 19 points and 6.5 assists, in what was an uneven season for Portland.  The team finished 33-49 with the fanbase enduring a 13 game losing streak to end the season.  Despite the finish to the year fans in the Pacific Northwest went into the summer with the belief that they had struck gold in the draft and found a future star to pair with franchise cornerstone LaMarcus Aldridge…and they were RIGHT!

The following year, in only his 2nd season, Dame was named an NBA All-Star.  Over the course of the next two seasons the Trail Blazers won a combined 105 regular season games and advanced to the playoffs each season. The core of a championship team appeared to be in place with the duo of Lillard and Aldridge complimented by Wes Matthews and the promise of a sharp shooting guard taken with the 10th pick in the 2013 draft, CJ McCollum. 

Despite the potential this roster possessed, the regular season success failed to translate to the post season where the team won just one playoff series over the course of those two seasons, a 2014 six game triumph over the James Harden & Dwight Howard led Houston Rockets.  That series is remembered most for Lillard’s series clinching three at the buzzer of Game 6.  The 2014 team would fall to the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Semifinals while the 2015 team was derailed by a late season injury to Matthews and eliminated in the first round by the Memphis Grizzlies, both five game defeats. 

Dreams of an NBA title were quickly met with a harsh reality in July of 2015 when Aldridge decided to look outside of the organization for a path towards post season success and Portland declined to offer Matthews a contract.  In free agency, Aldridge signed with San Antonio and Matthews inked a lucrative deal with the Dallas Mavericks despite being in the midst of recovery from a torn Achilles tendon.  At 25 years old, entering his 4th season, the Portland Trail Blazers were clearly Dame’s team.  The weight of an entire region’s championship aspirations was placed squarely on his shoulders and for the next 8 seasons, he did more than his part to realize those dreams.    

In his first season as the face of the franchise, Lillard established new career highs in both points (25.1) and assists (6.8). To the surprise of many, aided by the emergence of McCollum, he led the Trail Blazers to a respectable 44-38 record.  Portland entered the 2016 playoffs as the 5th seed in the Western Conference and matched up against the heavily favored “Lob City” Clippers.  Los Angeles was led by the trio of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. 

The series started off as many expected, with the Clippers winning the first two games at home by 20 and 21 points, respectively.  When series shifted to Oregon for Game 3, the world got its first real glimpse into Portland’s future as we watched CJ’s 27 points, be topped only by Dame’s game high 32, in a 96-88 Portland victory.  The series turned in Game 4 when LA lost both Paul and Griffin to injuries that would end their seasons, a blow that was too much for the veteran Clippers team to overcome as they fell to the Trail Blazers in six games. 

Portland would go on to lose to the defending champion, and record setting, 73 win Golden State Warriors in five games however, the Western Conference Semifinals appearance gave the Trail Blazers reason to believe in their future.  Lillard averaged 31.8 points and 7.6 assists in the five game contest and McCollum proved ready for the stage averaging 21.4 points. Dame’s performance was highlighted by a 40 point and 10 assist Game 3 Portland victory in which he connected on 8 of 13 shots from beyond the arc!  One year removed from the foundation shaking departures of Aldridge and Matthews, there was once again reason for optimism heading into the offseason.

The 2016 offseason came and went without major changes but, hope remained that the team could build off their surprise success of the previous year.  Instead, Portland looked more like the team many expected to see in the aftermath of the 2015 offseason.  As mid-February rolled around, the team had lost 4 of 5 and found itself 9 games below .500 at 23-32.  Looking for a spark, Portland swapped centers with Denver in a deal that resulted in Mason Plumlee and a 2018 2nd round pick going to the Nuggets and Jusuf Nurkić landing with the Trail Blazers along with a 2017 1st round pick. 

Nurkić played well down the stretch run appearing in 20 of 27 games while averaging 15.2 points, 10.4 boards, and 1.9 blocks and Portland rallied to finish the regular season at 41-41.  The team’s late season push was enough to grab hold of the 8th seed in the Western Conference.  Unfortunately for the City of Roses, their reward for making the playoffs was a rematch with the Golden State Warriors who had added Kevin Durant.  The Warriors made quick work of the Trail Blazers, authoring a four game sweep to start their post season march towards a 3rd straight Western Conference Title and their 2nd NBA Title in the past three years. 

Portland’s big swing of the 2017 offseason took place on draft night when they sent the 15th and 20th picks to Sacramento in exchange for the 10th pick.  With the tenth pick, the team selected Gonzaga big man Zach Collins, passing on the opportunity to draft Kentucky big man Bam Adebayo who went 14th to Miami.  At the time, Collins was believed by most evaluators to have the highest potential to develop into a complete NBA center however, the Trail Blazers could have greatly benefited from adding Bam’s defensive versatility. 

When the regular season came around, the team looked to replicate the late season success they had in the year prior.  Nurkić picked up where he left off averaging 14.3 points and 9.0 rebounds, and the tandem of Lillard & McCollum continued to deliver with remarkable consistency.  The team once again seemed to be building towards contention, finishing the regular season at 49-33.  Their regular season performance earned them the Western Conference’s #3 seed, home court advantage, and a matchup with the 48 win New Orleans Pelicans.  Virtually everyone expected a long series but, Lillard slipped into a shooting slump at the wrong time and the Trail Blazers had no answers for Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday who led the Pelicans to a four game sweep. 

After the disappoint of the New Orleans series, Portland’s front office continued to make tweaks around the edges of the Trail Blazers roster.  In July of 2018, the team signed shooting guard Seth Curry to a 1-year deal after the three point specialist had missed the entirety of the 2017-2018 season with a stress fracture in his left leg that ultimately required surgery.  The team continued to add throughout the season signing center Enes Kanter in February, after he was waived by the New York Knicks, and making a deadline deal with Cleveland to land forward Rodney Hood.  The acquisitions provided depth at positions of need for a Portland team that was looking to climb the Western Conference standings. 

The Trail Blazers entered the All-Star break at 34-23, after a win over Golden State, and closed the regular season on a post break 19-6 run to finish at 53-29 and qualify for the playoffs as the conference’s #3 seed.  Now 7 years into his NBA career, Lillard had put together his best season to date.  He had established career highs in assists (6.9), assist to turnover ratio (2.56), and effective field goal percentage (52.2%) while averaging 25.8 points.  Dame also played 80 games during the regular season, the most he had appeared in since he competed in all 82 of Portland’s contests in each of his first three seasons. 

Portland began the 2019 playoffs, once again, with a difficult opponent in their #3/#6 matchup.  In order to win their first playoff series in three years, Lillard would need to lead his team past the 49 win Oklahoma City Thunder.  OKC featured a dynamic duo in Russell Westbrook & Paul George and an intimidating paint presence in Steven Adams.  The Thunder had won all four meetings with Portland in the regular season and, if the circumstances weren’t challenging enough already, Portland had lost Nurkić to a late season injury forcing Kanter into a starting role.  Kanter turned out to be up for the task and the two teams played a competitive and entertaining series in which the first and the final games of the series would end up being the most tightly contested down the stretch. 

In Game 1 Paul George struggled to find his shooting stroke going 8/24 but, hit a three pointer with under three minutes to play to pull the Thunder within one at 93-92.  Lillard immediately responded, and in what would foreshadow things to come, hit a 30 foot trey on the next possession to stretch the Portland lead back to four, ending the Thunder’s rally. 

The teams split the next two games with the home teams holding serve.  The Trail Blazers had rode a 33 point night from McCollum to a 20 point victory in Game 2 which was countered three nights later with a 33 point performance by Westbrook in a 12 point Thunder win in Game 3.  With the Blazers holding a 2-1 edge in the series, Portland sought to take Game 4 and return home with a chance close things out.  Dame’s team was able to do just that as Lillard scored 15 points in the 3rd quarter to extend a 4 point halftime lead to 11, which proved to be too much for the Thunder to overcome despite a 32 point effort from George. 

As the series shifted back to Oregon, fans packed the Moda Center ready for a celebration.  Portland’s first playoff series win in three years was within reach but, the cliché that close out games are always the toughest, held true.  Lillard came out firing with a 34 point first half but, George knocked down eight of his ten first half shots and racked up 20 points of his own.  Oklahoma City hung in the fight trailing only by one at the half, 61-60. 

Portland continued to look to pull away in the 2nd half and for a moment, appeared to have.  Dame drained a step back three to put the Trail Blazers up 84-75 with 3:29 to play in the 3rd quarter.  The home crowd to had to feel as though victory was within the Blazers grasp however, the Thunder simply would not fold.  Oklahoma City quickly turned a late 3rd quarter nine point deficit into a FIFTEEN point 4th quarter lead! 

With 7:12 remaining in the game and Thunder up 107-92, it looked like a certainty that the series would head back to the Mid-West for a Game 6 and that the capacity crowd would head home disappointed.  In the face of those long odds, Portland refused to back down and the emotional roller coaster ride continued as the home team did not let the 24 point swing dishearten them.  Over the next 6:15, the Blazers went on a 21-6 run, with 10 points from forward Maurice Harkless, to tie the game at 113 with 57 seconds remaining…What happen next remains one of the most remarkable finishes in NBA history! 

Paul George broke the tie with a 15 foot jump shot over CJ McCollum with 39 seconds left only to watch Lillard make a driving layup 7 seconds later following a Terry Stotts timeout.  Lillard had been defended by Dennis Schröder and after beating him off the dribble somehow managed to split Paul George and Jerami Grant, who had collapsed to meet him at the rim. The game was tied at 115 and the decision by Lillard’s long-time coach to go quick, put Portland in position to have one last possession to either tie or win the game. 

On the ensuing Thunder possession, Westbrook went to the rim but was defended well by Al-Farouq Aminu.  The forward, who had been a solid contributor in his 4 years with Portland, contested Westbrook’s shot attempt, forcing a miss, and gathered the rebound.  With 17 seconds remaining, Aminu handed the ball off to Dame who dribbled about five feet past half court and assessed his options.  Stotts had one time out remaining but, rather than calling it to draw up a play he left the game in his star’s hands. 

Instead of running any sort of action, Portland spaced the floor and cleared out for Lillard to go one on one with George who had stepped out to establish his defensive position about 30 feet from the basket. As the clock wound down under four seconds, Lillard had still only drifted a few feet closer to the basket from half court.  With everyone in the building expecting Dame to put the ball on the floor and drive, he took one step and pulled up from 37 feet, well out of the reach of George’s contest. The high arcing shot left Lillard’s hand with approximately 1.6 seconds left but, it felt as though time stopped as the shot reached its apex and transitioned into its descent toward the rim.  As the red light around the backboard illuminated and the buzzer sounded, Dame’s hail marry shot passed through the cylinder and the arena erupted! 

In the immediate aftermath, as Lillard’s teammates ran to mob him in celebration, Dame still looking locked in as ever, waived goodbye to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  That last shot by Dame gave him 50 for the night, a new franchise playoff record, and added him to a list accompanied only by Michael Jordan as players with multiple series ending buzzer beaters.  Rip City was rolling into the Western Conference Semis!

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The West’s second round brought a very different challenge in the #2 seeded Denver Nuggets.  Denver was coming off a seven game first round victory over LaMarcus Aldridge’s San Antonio Spurs after completing a 54-28 regular season.  The Nuggets had missed the playoffs the previous year but, the emergence of a couple of young players had vaulted them into the upper echelon of the Western Conference.  At 24 years old, center Nikola Jokić had averaged 20.1 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists during the regular season.  His running mate, 22 year-old guard Jamal Murray, had establish career highs of his own at 18.2 points and 4.8 assists. 

For the first time, a Lillard lead Trail Blazers team entered a playoff series as the more experienced team.  They had gone from the hunter to the hunted.  One similarity to Portland’s first round opponent was that the Nuggets, like the Thunder, held the edge in the regular season head to head matchup.  Denver had taken three of four from Portland and those games proved to be significant. One game separated the two teams in the regular season standings which meant that the series would open up at altitude in the Mile High City. 

As the series tipped off, Damian Lillard carried over his hot shooting from the first round.  In Game 1 he hit 12 of 21 shots for 39 points but, Jokić had 37 points of his own on 11 of 18 shooting and the Nuggets pulled out a 121-113 win.  Game 2 could not have possibly looked more different.  Both team struggled mightily on offense with Portland shooting 42.4% and Denver shooting an abysmal 34.7%.  A 23-7 edge in offensive rebounds kept the home team in the fight but, a game high 20 points from CJ McCollum was enough for the Trail Blazers to pull out a 97-90 win and send the series back to the Left Coast even at a game apiece. 

Game 3 must have been an excruciating viewing experience for fans of each of these teams.  With 35 seconds left in the 4th quarter, Lillard had the ball with the score tied 100-100.  Dame drove past Murray and made a floater over the contest of Paul Millsap to give Portland a 102-100 lead with 31 seconds remaining.  At the other end, after a Michael Malone time out, Will Barton inbounded the ball to Jokić and immediately cut to the rim.  Jokić delivered a perfect pass with Lillard trailing and Barton was able to make an up and under layup to tie the game at 102 with 28 seconds left. 

On the following Blazers possession, Dame drove to the paint and drew three defenders. With about 9 seconds remaining he kicked the ball out to a wide open Aminu who fired up a three pointer with three seconds left on the shot clock and just under eight seconds remaining in the 4th.  The shot ricocheted off the back rim and was rebound by Murray with 4.4 on the clock.  Unable to successfully push the ball up court, the Nuggets called a time-out with 1.8 seconds remaining.  No longer allowed to advance the ball, Denver attempted a long inbound pass that was intercepted by Harkless who attempted a 60 foot heave that fell short.  The game was headed to overtime!   

The scoring in the extra session was opened by a Murray driving floater, 104-102 Denver.  McCollum countered with an 18 foot jumper just under a minute later, tied again.  43 seconds later, another McCollum jump shot fell, this one from behind the arc, 107-104 Portland.  49 seconds later Murray countered with a three of his own, tied again.  A Millsap layup with under a minute to play put Denver back on top at 109-107. 

The score would remain that way until Lillard stole the ball from Torrey Craig with 17 seconds left and began racing up the floor.  With 14 seconds left Dame tried to sidestep around Millsap and attempted a layup but, failed to convert.  The shot attempt didn’t contact the rim and as it came down was deflect by both Lillard and Millsap and the ball careened toward the Nuggets bench.  Aminu, who had run the floor with Lillard, reacted quickly and secured the rebound then passed the ball to a trailing McCollum who drove and drained a floater for his third basket of the period to tie the game once again.  After a Denver time out, Jokić missed a three at the buzzer, the game was headed to DOUBLE OT!! 

Lillard opened the scoring of the next session with a 20 foot jumper and, after the teams traded baskets, hit a deep three to put the Blazers up five as the clock ticked toward the half way mark of the period.  Denver responded with Jokić assisting on a Barton three and a Millsap two from close range, tied again! McCollum added his 2nd bucket of the 2nd extra session with 1:27 remaining but, Gary Harris responded with a driving spin move that resulted in a layup to tie the game yet again with 1:03 remaining…

The two teams remained scoreless over the next minute.  Lillard attempted to break the scoring drought with a tough step back three over Gary Harris but, his shot came up short, landing on the front rim and bouncing out.  At this point, fatigue had clearly set in for both teams but, once again the game clock needed to be reset to 5:00, we were headed to TRIPPLE OT!!! 

McCollum opened the scoring of the third overtime with a two point jumper that was quickly answered with a Harris three, 121-120 Denver.  CJ then responded with a long step back two followed by a three, 125-121 Portland.  The Nuggets then went on an 8-0 run over a two minute stretch to go up 129-125 with only 32 seconds to play…timeout Portland. 

Following the TO, Harkless inbounded to Lillard who drove by Craig.  After inbounding the ball Harkless had drifted towards the corner and drew Millsap with him, creating enough space and keeping Millsap far enough away from the rim that he wasn’t in a position to help on Lillard without fouling.  The result? An uncontested layup to put Portland back within two with 27.3 seconds left on the clock. 

What came next? More McCollum heroics only this time on the defensive end.  As Murray brought the ball across half court, along the sideline opposite the benches, CJ blanketed him and reached in behind Murray’s back with his left hand swiping at the ball and knocking it loose.  As Murray tried to maintain his dribble, the ball deflected off his fingertips and out of bounds! Blazers ball!

On the ensuing possession, Denver began with Murray defending Dame but switched Craig onto him with about 12 seconds on the clock.  Once again, Lillard drove and beat Craig off the dribble and Harkless had again drawn Millsap to the corner to defend the three point line.  Jokić may have been in a position to contest but, wasn’t fast enough to react and was sealed off by Kanter.  Dame laid the ball off the glass and in against a late contest by Craig who had recovered quickly.  With 8.4 seconds remaining the game was tied again! 

On the next possession, Jokić set a great screen that forced Kanter to switch onto Murray.  Despite having the matchup they were looking for, the Nuggets were unable to capitalize as Kanter managed to stay in front of Murry, cutting off his driving lane, and forcing him backward.  With time winding down, and Murray having retreated towards half court, he had to resort to taking a deep three from the “d” in the Moda Center logo.  The shot banged high off the backboard and then caught the front rim bouncing harmlessly out.  Yet again, the clock was reset to 5:00, we were heading to QUADRUPLE OVERTIME!!!! 

At this point, the crowd is feeling fatigued, what the players are going through is indescribable.  The first four minutes of the 4th overtime period were played to a 4-4 tie, evening the game at 133.  What was most significant is that it was Rodney Hood who tied the game for Portland with 1:07 on the clock.  Hood had been on the bench for 17 minutes and 30 seconds of the 18:01 of extra time that had been played when he checked in with 1:59 on the clock. 

With 1:00 remaining, McCollum committed a shooting foul and Barton made one of two free throws re-establishing a slim Denver lead, 134-133. Needing to respond, Hood came through for Portland again, making another two point jumper with 44.9 seconds left, 135-134 Portland. 

At the other end, directly in front of the Trail Blazer bench, Millsap had a one on one opportunity in the low post against Aminu.  In the span of two left-handed dribbles, Millsap gained position leaning his right shoulder into Aminu’s chest and curled toward the basket taking a five foot shot with his left hand.  The ball landed softly on the front rim bouncing towards the cup, then it caught the back rim and bounced again, continuing its forward momentum to reach the back board, another bounce off the glass changed the ball’s direction back towards the cylinder and after glancing the back rim again, the ball fell through the net, 136-135 Denver with 27.6 on the clock…timeout Portland. 

Following the timeout, McCollum thought he had an opportunity to drive on Jokić but, didn’t see the trailing Malik Beasley.  As CJ pulled up for a mid-range jumper, the Nuggets defensive quickly collapse on him, and his contested shot missed off the back rim.  Despite the contest, McCollum tracked the ball the entire way and when the rebound came back out in his direction, he somehow managed to jump up and secure the ball over a crashing Torrey Craig.  Almost in a single motion, he kicked the ball out to Hood before his feet touched back on the floor.  Hood calmly caught the pass and pumped fake a desperate close out attempt by Barton.  After watching Barton leave his feet and sail by, Hood took one dribble and then raised up from beyond the arc, nothing but nylon! Hood was now three for three in the period and Portland had a 138-136 lead with 17.8 remaining on the clock. 

After a Denver timeout, Jokić attempted to post up Harkless who did well to hold his ground and prevent an easy look at the rim.  Unable to move Harkless, Jokić made a spin move and took a wild shot with 5.6 seconds remaining.  The shot missed badly but, Harkless was called for a shooting foul.  Jokić missed the first free throw ultimately sealing Denver’s fate. 

After Jokić made the second free throw, Denver fouled Seth Curry who made both of his free throws with 2.8 remaining to put Portland up 140-137.  Out of time outs, the Nuggets attempted one last desperation inbound pass that traveled past half court but, it was intercepted by McCollum and the clock hit zero, this time it would not need to be reset to 5:00, Portland had secured a 2-1 series lead. 

To call Game 3 the CJ McCollum game would not being doing justice to all the wild endeavors that took place over 68 minutes of NBA playoff basketball however, it was definitely one for the resume and for anyone who doubted CJ as a worthy partner in crime for Dame.  McCollum scored 18 of his game high 41 points after regulation had ended!  Maybe more importantly, the team trusted him as he attempted a staggering THIRTY NINE shots!  That was seven more than Jamal Murray and 15 more than Lillard. 

The game was the first, and remains the only, NBA playoff game in the shot clock era to extend to a fourth overtime period and only the second all time.  The other being a series clinching Game 2 victory for the Boston Celtics over the Syracuse Nationals in the 1953 Eastern Division Semifinals. 

Portland was now 4-0 at home in the playoffs and had won 12 straight at home dating back to the regular season.  Entering Game 4 and looking to extend that winning steak to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series, many people from analysts to fans, liked Portland’s chances.  The natural tendency in the aftermath of a game like Game 3 is to assume that the heartbreak of being on the losing end is almost too much to bounce back from.  If that is truly the case, then someone forgot to inform the Nuggets. 

Game 4 was tight throughout with Portland jumping out to a six point half time lead but, Denver came out strong in the second half with a 27-14 3rd quarter that would tip the scales in their favor.  Jokić delivered an 8/15 shooting performance on his way to a 21 point, 12 rebound, and 11 assist night that helped lead Denver to a 116-112 win which leveled the series at 2-2. 

With the series shifting back to Denver, the Nuggets came out firing on all cylinders in Game 5 while the Trail Blazers struggled shooting from everywhere; 36.7% from the field, 27.0% from three, 53.3% from the free throw line.  A six point first quarter deficit quickly ballooned to 18 at the end of the 2nd quarter and the Blazers wouldn’t get any closer after halftime falling 124-98.  Now down 3-2, Lillard’s team now found themselves trailing in the series for the first time since the Game 1 loss. 

If the Trail Blazer’s were going to return to Denver for a seventh game, they were first going to need a big response back at home, and they got it from their exceptional backcourt pairing.  Dame and CJ combined for 62 points on 23 of 47 shooting, which included Lillard’s 6 for 13 performance from three.  The result was a 119-108 Trail Blazers victory and a series knotted at 3-3. 

Although nothing could compare to what transpired in Game 3, you never know what to expect heading into a Game 7.  Coming off a hot shooting performance in Game 6, Lillard surprisingly struggled to find his stroke and the Nuggets jumped out to a 29-17 lead at the end of the first quarter.  Dame’s shooting struggles would continue throughout most of the game as he ended up just 3/17 but, found other ways to contribute.  The Blazers star made five of six free throws on a 13 point night, relied heavily on his play making ability racking up eight assists, and secured ten defensive boards. 

Fortunately for Portland, McCollum’s hot shooting from three nights prior only got hotter as Portland knocked the Nuggets lead down to one, entering the 4th quarter.  Dame saved his best for last making two of his three 4th quarter three point attempts while CJ would put the finishing touches on the most important performance of his career. 

McCollum shot 17 for 29 on his way to 37 points, including making Portland’s last three field goals of the game.  The last of those buckets, a 16 foot pull up over Craig, came with 12.4 seconds remaining and extended the Blazers lead 98-95, a lead they would not relinquish!  After adding a couple late Evan Turner free throws the Trail Blazers would leave Denver with a 100-96 win, 4-3 series victory, and a berth in the Western Conference Finals!  Game 7 WAS the CJ McCollum game!

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The run up to the 2019 Western Conference Finals was the peak of Lillard’s Trail Blazers run.  The third round of the playoffs saw Portland clash with a familiar foe in the Golden State Warriors.  The Warriors were without Durant due to an injury suffered in the previous round vs Houston but, the two time defending NBA champions still had their now veteran trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. 

Curry showed up and showed out in the series averaging 36.5 points on 46.9% shooting along with 8.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists, leading the Warriors to a four game sweep and their 5th straight Western Conference Title.  Games 2 and 4 came down to the wire, with Game 4 going to overtime, but Golden State was simply too much for Portland to handle.  Once again, the Blazers were headed into the summer looking for answers.

Over the next two seasons Portland looked to add veteran players who could compliment their backcourt duo.  Most notable was the signing of Carmelo Anthony in the summer of 2019.  Melo would spend two years in Portland and provided a consistent wing scoring option that the Trail Blazers had lacked throughout Lillard’s career.  Despite the added fire power on offense, the team continued to lack necessary defensive versatility and failed to replicate the success of the 2019 run in the 2020 and 2021 playoffs. 

The 2020 season was halted in March due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and when play resumed in the Orlando Bubble in late July, Portland qualified for the playoffs as the Western Conference’s #8 seed only to fall in five games to the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers, led by Lebron James and Anthony Davis.  The 2021 team qualified for the playoffs as a #6 seed after a 42-30 season that was abbreviated due to the on-going pandemic.  They would match up with the Nikola Jokić led Denver Nuggets for the second time in three seasons.  Denver had lost Jamal Murray to a torn ACL but, now featured Aaron Gordon and an emerging young talent in Michael Porter Jr.  A hard-fought series ultimately went to the Nuggets in six games and the Trail Blazers front office decided it was time for a new direction, parting ways with head coach Terry Stotts, in what was announced as a mutual agreement. 

In hindsight, the departure of Lillard’s head coach for all nine of his seasons in Portland was really the beginning of the end.  It signaled that the Trail Blazers front office was looking to shake the foundation of the team up to explore alternative avenues and timelines towards contention.  Chauncey Billups was hired as head coach prior the 2021-2022 season, a season in which Lillard would be limited to just 29 games due to injury. 

With the team struggling and the trade deadline approaching, Portland decided to trade CJ McCollum to the New Orleans Pelicans. The deal was mostly to clear salary from the books heading into the summer and returned one potentially significant asset in a protected 2022 New Orleans first round pick.  The pick would convey to Portland if it landed anywhere from picks 5 through 14 and New Orleans was 10th in the Western Conference standings at the time of the deal.  If the Pelicans failed to qualify for the playoffs, it was very likely the pick would convey to Portland. 

Unfortunately for the Trail Blazers, McCollum helped the Pelicans climb to 9th in the standings and qualify for the play in tournament.  He then scored 32 points against San Antonio and 19 against the Los Angeles Clippers to help New Orleans advance to the playoffs, ensuring that the Pelicans pick would not convey to Portland.  Instead, Portland would receive a 2025 first round pick from Milwaukee.  Meanwhile, with Dame sidelined and CJ no longer a part of the team, the losses piled up.  The team went just 2-21 after the All-Star break and finished with a 27-55 record in their first year with Billups behind the bench.

Regarding the trade of his long-time co-star, Lillard had the following to say in the wake of CJ’s departure:

“We talked about it over the years, like, this being a possibility.  We both knew that this point would be coming. But that don't make it no easier to deal with. I think that's where I am now. Me and him literally talked about it happening, the possibility of it and it was likely and stuff like that, and I still woke up this morning like, sad. It's actually done.”

“When I'm seeing 'CJ To The Pelicans' and stuff like that, it's like damn, ain't no coming back from this, this is it. It ain't gonna be no every day, pull up to the house, dinner on the road, all that stuff. It's done, he's on a new team. As much as I understood it and he understood it and we kind of have always communicated in a transparent way, it don't make it any easier to deal with or to look at. Like man, is it really over? Is the run really over?”

“I think we'll be remembered as trouble. We never won a championship together, we never played in the Finals together, but we have always been a winning team. Us together, we've always been a winning team, we've always been a playoff team, so we never had empty success in games. We've always won games ... we just didn't win at the highest level.”

“No matter if it was the best team in the league, worst team in the league, they knew that they had trouble. And in the playoffs -- people can say what they want -- we've had our down moments in the playoffs and we've had high moments in the playoffs, I would say about split.”

“Regardless of that, we were always the team that people would prefer not to play in the playoffs, regardless of any of that, because they knew they had trouble. That's how I think we'll be remember is like man, when CJ and Dame was together for that eight, nine years, trouble. I think that's how we'll be remembered.”

The run really was over.  The duo that Dame dubbed Trouble had led the Trail Blazers to three playoff series victories after Aldridge left the organization.  Over the course of the previous six seasons (’15-’16 through ’20-’21), they had guided Portland to a 264-210 (.556) regular season record.  Under their watch, Portland was always in the mix and seemingly one piece away from having a team with a real shot at an NBA title.  Unfortunately, Portland’s front office was never able to deliver that final piece to the puzzle.  

After the 2022 season speculation that Lillard would ask for a trade to a more competitive situation was rampant but, Dame remained committed to trying to find a way to bring a title to Portland.  In the 2022 offseason, the Trail Blazers took one last swing at trying to retool the roster around Lillard.  They traded the 2025 Milwaukee first round pick they had acquired in the McCollum deal to Detroit as the centerpiece of a package to acquire forward Jerami Grant. 

As the 2022-2023 season began the Blazers 2018 first round pick, Anfernee Simons, stepped into a full-time starting role alongside Lillard.  The team hovered around .500 for much of the season and was 28-30 when it reached the All-Star break.  At the trade deadline, the organization had essentially waived the white flag on the season, shipping Josh Hart, who had been acquired in the McCollum deal, to New York in exchange for the Knicks 2023 first round pick. 

The Blazers struggled down the stretch despite Dame setting new career highs in points (32.2) and effective field goal percentage (56.4%).  After a late March win in Salt Lake City brought the team’s record to just 32-40, the Blazers shut Dame down for the last 10 games of the season.  The decision created more opportunity for rookie Shaedon Sharpe who the team had drafted with the 7th pick of the 2022 draft but, the team would win just one game the rest of the season to finish at 33-49, the same record as Lillard’s rookie year…

Portland entered the 2023 draft lottery slotted 5th and the ping pong balls bounced their way awarding the organization the #3 pick in the 2023 draft.  The speculation over Dame’s future had grown much loader than the previous offseason and it appeared the organization was headed towards a fork in the road.  Either trade the pick in a deal that would land another star player to pair with Damian Lillard or commit to a rebuild and trade Lillard for assets that could help accelerate that process and provide Dame with an opportunity to contend for a championship. 

As draft night approached without any signs of a trade, Dame’s exit from Portland seemed inevitable.  On the night of June 22, 2023, with the 3rd pick in the NBA draft, the Portland Trail Blazers selected point guard Scoot Henderson of the NBA G League Ignite.  The Trail Blazers now had a crowded backcourt that included three young guards in Henderson, Sharpe, and Simons.  Nine days later, on July 1, 2023, reports surfaced that Lillard has requested a trade and Blazers General Manager, Joe Cronin, released a statement confirming that Dame would prefer to play elsewhere. 

Dame’s time with the Portland Trail Blazers is rife with what ifs...What if Matthews hadn’t torn his Achilles tendon in March of 2015?  What if Aldridge hadn’t left in July of 2015?  What if the team hadn’t made the Nurkić trade and allowed a down season to playout in February of 2017?  Would they have been in position to draft Lauri Markkanen or even Jayson Tatum?  What if the Trail Blazers had just drafted Bam Adebayo instead of Zach Collins in 2017?  What if Portland had packaged their 2017 draft picks and future picks with Meyers Leonard? Could they have acquired Jimmy Butler who was traded from Chicago to Minnesota that summer?  What if they had waited until the summer of 2022 to shop McCollum instead of dealing him during the season?  Could they have found a better deal?  What if there was an opportunity to land another All-Star by trading the #3 pick in the 2023 draft?...

The reality is that constructing an NBA championship roster is incredibly difficult.  Organizations often face roster decisions that do not have definitive right answers.  Even when they do end up on the right side of those decisions, like selecting a 6’2” guard out of Weber State with the 6th overall pick in the NBA Draft, a team’s results are always impacted by elements outside of an organization’s control. 

What is within the Trail Blazer’s control, is what happens next with Damian Lillard, who has four years remaining on his contract.  Dame has done everything that could have been asked of him to try to deliver a title to Portland and unfortunately has never had enough help around him to do so.  With the organization clearly headed towards a rebuild, they owe it to Lillard to send him to a team in position to contend for an NBA title.  

Perhaps the best comparison for Lillard’s circumstances is the crossroads Kevin Garnett found himself at in the summer of 2007.  Garnett had dedicated the past 12 years trying to bring a championship to Minneapolis.  Like Lillard, he had only managed to reach the Western Conference Finals once, a six game defeat at the hands of the Lakers.  He was also two years into a new coaching staff on a team whose record was headed in the wrong direction. 

KG and the Minnesota front office worked together to find him an opportunity to compete for a title and he landed with the Boston Celtics that summer.  Garnett would go on to win two Eastern Conference Titles and one NBA Championship (2008).  Garnett was 31 at the time of his trade to Boston and Lillard will turn 33 prior to the start of the 2023-2024 NBA season.  In his Hall of Fame acceptance speech, The Big Ticket stated that his only regret was that he hadn’t come to Boston earlier in his career. 

For some fans of the NBA, what can be easily lost in all the money and the fame that comes with superstar status, is how much players truly love the game of basketball and how hard they have worked for the opportunity to compete at the highest level.  The NBA is by far the most competitive basketball league in the world but, there’s a big difference between the regular season, the first couple rounds of the playoffs, the conference finals, and ultimately the NBA Finals.  As Meek Mill once said, there’s levels to this shit!

Dame came close to in 2019 but, the sand in the hourglass of his career is quickly running out.  Lillard has dedicated much of his life to the game of basketball and the Trail Blazers need to send him to a contender now…

It's Dame’s time!